There will be weeks and months to figure out how “A Star is Born” faded in the Best Picture race, but the final showdown features two strong contenders. “Roma” has won almost every critical honor and took a key DGA win and BAFTA. “Green Book” has been controversial to everyone but a significant number of Academy members (and they really, really love it). It also won the PGA which is the only guild award voted on in the same preferential treatment that the Oscars are. In theory, we’d pick “Roma” because “Green Book” is missing out on a Directing nod, but Alfonso Cuaron’s drama is without a key…Editing nod. Moreover, a foreign language film has never won Best Picture in the 90-year history of the Academy. We’re rooting for “The Favourite” or “Black Panther” to upset, but “Roma” has the best shot at overcoming a “Green Book” win. [Updated Feb. 12]

1. “Green Book”
2. “Roma”
3. “Black Panther”
4. “The Favourite”
5. “A Star is Born”
6. “BlacKkKlansman”
7. “Bohemian Rhapsody”
8. “Vice”

More predictions:

Best Picture
Best Director
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film