It would be shocking if Alfonso Cuaron didn’t win. He took the DGA, BAFTA, the Globe, you name it. There will be a strong contingent of Spike Lee supporters, but many members will believe they are giving him his due in the Adapted Screenplay category. [Updated Feb. 12]

1. Alfonso Cauron, “Roma”
2. Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
3. Paweł Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
5. Adam McKay, “Vice”


More predictions:

Best Picture
Best Director
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film