There are always question marks surrounding who will win, who almost won, and who never had a shot when it comes to the Academy Awards. And it’s easy for even those contenders, consultants, or awards watchers to overthink the key races in the second phase of campaigning. That being said, every year has its obvious frontrunners and 2023 is no different. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio” is pretty much booked for a Best Animated Feature win as is “Avatar: The Way of Water” in the Visual Effects category. But, overall, this Oscar season is quite competitive. Well, at least it appears to be. The guilds and precursor awards, which begin in earnest this upcoming weekend, may clarify or confuse the proceedings.
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It all starts with the DGA Awards on Saturday night, February 18. The next afternoon, Sunday, February 19, the BAFTA Awards, an organization with significant AMPAS crossover, will have its say. The following weekend, the Producers Guild of America will announce their honors on Saturday, February 25. The PGA Award is always telling as it’s a “Best Picture” award that uses ranked voting just like the Oscars. The next day, Sunday, February 26, the Screen Actors Guild will reward their members on Netflix’s YouTube channel (thankfully, next year they will be on Netflix proper). And, every actor in the Academy’s large Acting branch is a, you guessed it, SAG member. The WGA Awards will be on Sunday, but the number of disqualified nominees who also earned Oscar nominations makes those winners slightly less important this time around.
There are also a number of below-the-line or crafts guilds that will hand out statues over the weeks ahead. And many of those categories are too close to call. Does Production Design go to “Babylon,” “Elvis” or “All Quiet on the Western Front?” Will “The Fablemans,” “Babylon” or “All Quiet on the Western Front” take Original Score?” And can “All That Breathes” or “Fire of Love” usurp “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” for Documentary Feature? Can Cannes favorite “Close” hold off “All Quiet on the Western Front” for International Feature? Much to ponder, but overall, these are the nine categories that have us questioning AMPAS members’ motives before final voting begins on March 2.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett vs. Michelle Yeoh
Let’s see. So, we assume Blanchett takes BAFTA and Yeoh takes SAG. If Yeoh takes BAFTA as well, it’s likely over. This is one race that’s vacillated between the two depending on who you talk to and, well, to be frank, how much of a hardcore fan of Yeoh’s they are. There are two key trends coming into play as voting edges closer. The first is that Blanchett is seemingly not campaigning beyond the requisite award show calendar. And, frankly, she’s had to often carry “TAR” through its entire release and awards season campaign. She also doesn’t seem bothered that this may or may not be her best chance to join the three-winners club (although she did make sure to attend the Oscar luncheon). Yeoh consequently, has eased into an almost masterful rhythm with the media. Her recent comments on Andrea Riseborough‘s nomination controversy are a perfect example (plus, she’s giving the answer most AMPAS members want to hear). As for those suggesting Riseborough could become a “surprise” winner members rally around, we think that’s a bit of a stretch. Especially in such a competitive year. Still, this is one race that is currently too close to call.
Best Actor: Austin Butler vs. Colin Farrell vs. Brendan Fraser
This is one race that likely seems puzzling, but by Oscar night we may all be saying to ourselves “Of course, it was [blank].” Austin is the young(ish) buck who transformed himself into one of America’s legendary cultural icons, Elvis Presley. And the recent comparisons to Rami Malek’s Oscar-winning turn in “Bohemian Rhapsody” and this category has been dominated over the past 20 years by winners playing real-life figures. Then there is Farrell, earning a long overdue first nomination who is, arguably, the centerpiece of one of these most nominated films this year. A critically acclaimed performance that should land him the BAFTA (or, so we think). Then there is Fraser, the star of the most polarizing film among the five nominees, “The Whale.” Fraser also checks off many Oscar acting boxes by enduring a physical transformation, which, in this case, was assisted by a makeup team who landed their own Academy Award nomination. And as much as The Academy loves transformations, it’s also incredibly rare for a performance from such a polarizing film to win an Oscar. And this is the film that couldn’t land an Adapted Screenplay nomination in an incredibly weak year. If Austin takes BAFTA and SAG, he’s a shoo-in for Oscar. If he only takes SAG then the door is open for another contender.
Best Supporting Actor: Key Huy Quan vs…Barry Keoghan?
In theory, Quan will continue his long run of winning every Supporting Actor honor out there. Keoghan cant surprise, right? Right? If Quan wins BAFTA it’s pretty much set in stone. If Keoghan does, well, things are gonna get interesting.
Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett vs. Kerry Condon
If Bassett had one more scene in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” where she could demonstrate her impeccable acting talent, there wouldn’t even be a race. Fini. Booked. And yet, she doesn’t. And that could, (major emphasis on “could”) open the door for Condon, who is the secret sauce of Martin McDonagh period drama. Like Quan in the other Supporting Actor race, if Bassett takes BAFTA it’s a fait accompli (we are assuming she’s winning SAG). If Condon does there is at least a semblance of a race for the Oscar. Maybe.
Original Screenplay: Too close to call
McDonagh for “Banshees?” The Daniels for “Everything Everywhere?” Todd Field for “TAR?” Could Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg even surprise for “The Fablemans?” Could Ruben Östlund shock for “Triangle of Sadness?” This category is likely the Best Picture kingmaker. If you win it early on Oscar night, your chances for the big prize take a big, big jump.
Adapted Screenplay: “Women Talking” vs. “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Does Rian Johnson have a shot here for “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery?” I mean, sure. In all likelihood though, it’s between Sarah Polley for “Women Taking,” Kazuo Ishiguro for “Living” or the three writers who contributed to “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Our vote would be for Polley, but Netflix is giving “All Quiet” a massive push on both the public relations and media side of the equation (having your own billboard network in Los Angeles is probably not a bad thing). “Women” was not nominated for BAFTA, so it will likely be a pick ’em up until the envelope is opened.
Original Song: Lady Gaga vs. Rihanna vs. “RRR”
It’s been quite a while since the Original Song category was this up in the air. Despite all the attention for her Super Bowl half-time performance, the now very pregnant RiRi has done little for “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” outside of a music video and showing up at the premiere. That song likely deserves to win and would give co-songwriter Ryan Coogler his first Oscar statue (he was nominated as a producer of “Black Panther” in 2020). But we’re not sure the other co-songwriter, Ludwig Göransson, can carry it to a win on his own. Gaga has been busy this awards season shooting “Joker: Folie à Deux,” but she sang “Hold My Hand” pretty much everywhere for almost half a year. Then there is “Naatu, Naatu” from “RRR” which is the most in-context song among all the nominees. It’s fun. It has choreography. The number on the telecast should be great (the Academy wants 60 dancers, will the producers pay for it?). The movie has a lot of fans in the Academy although not enough to land a Best Picture nomination in what many consider a weak year. None of the three top contenders are really spending. Only the “RRR” boys are seriously campaigning. Tough call.
Director: The Daniels vs. Steven Spielberg
Despite my admiration for The Daniels since 2016’s “Swiss Army Man,” I never in a million years thought they could win a DGA Award. That may change Saturday night. If the talented duo can pull off a DGA win they are almost assuredly in the mix to win Best Director(s) at the Academy Awards. If Spielberg lands his fourth win (on a record 13 nominations), things get much more interesting. McDonagh and Field will make things interesting if either of them wins the BAFTA, but keep your eye on The Daniels and DGA.
Best Picture: “Everything Everywhere” vs. “Banshees” vs. “The Fablemans” vs…”Top Gun: Maverick?”
The question with almost any Best Picture win is second, third, and fourth place votes. How are members ranking their ballots? Films that might be deemed polarizing or controversial tend to have a lot of high votes but a lot of lower-ranked votes as well. Other films may not have a massive number of first-place votes but a ton of second and third place. Who does that hurt and benefit this year? Despite landing the most nominations overall (statistically not a great barometer), “Everything Everywhere” has to hope it becomes the consensus choice among a majority of the members and those naysayers (they sadly exist) don’t weigh it down. The other theoretical contenders, “Banshees” and “Fablemans,” need to hope they have enough votes in the top three rankings to pull off a win. And then there is “Top Gun: Maverick.” A movie that almost every AMPAS member likes, was a lock for a Best Picture nomination by September and that Paramount has minimally campaigned for media-wise. Then again, Tom Cruise showed up at the Oscar luncheon on Monday. His first real appearance at any awards event this season. Is it too late to punch it across the finish line? We’re about to find out.
The 95th Academy Awards will be handed out on March 12 live on ABC at 5 PM PT/ 8 PM ET.
