Six weeks ago, following a slightly demure Cannes, the 2027 Oscar season seemed set. Studio films would likely dominate, and there were few festival surprises on tap. How silly. There are always surprises. And the past few weeks have delivered some big ones. Well, at least that industry is aware of.
READ MORE: Oscars kickoff at Cannes but don’t overhype it
Publicly, the biggest news has been Amazon MGM Studios dropping Luca Guadagnino’s “Artificial.” Centered on the short period Sam Altman (Andrew Garfield) departed and then returned to AI company OpenAI, the dramedy was essentially sold off by Amazon because of a $50 billion deal with the tech company that closed in February, months after the film finished filming (nope, those optics are not great). Originally, Amazon was going to intentionally release “Artificial” next year, primarily to give it some breathing room from Sony Pictures’ other tech awards contender, “The Social Network” sequel, “The Social Reckoning.” Plus, Guadagnino is coming off the critical and box office disaster that was 2025’s “After the Hunt.” Some breathing room wouldn’t be a bad idea. Here’s the kicker, though. From all accounts, “Artificial” is fantastic.
Every studio we spoke to who saw the movie said it was certainly dark, but it was also very funny and more commercial than you might expect (the original script was considered a comedy by many). “Anora” Oscar nominee Yura Borisov earned raves for his performance as OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever. Monica Barbaro also earned praise for her role as OpenAI CTO Mira Murati. That being said, Ike Barinholtz‘s turn as Elon Musk was considered a little wobbly. Needless to say, many distributors wanted it, but, as we reported in The Breakdown newsletter (subscribe, it’s free), the cost was a little all over the place, with some studios being told it was $50 million and others $40 million. Moreover, Guadagnino now wanted a 2026 release as the movie was invited to all the major fall film festivals. That took some distributors out, and yesterday, Neon announced it picked up the drama for what is likely a year-end release (our guess is a limited at Christmas, wide in January to avoid any comparisons to “Reckoning,” opening on October 9, as long as possible). And whether Neon really paid that high a figure, or Amazon took a loss (or made a backend deal), is still unclear.
Now, the mini-major adds “Artificial” to its awards arsenal next to James Gray’s “Paper Tiger” (a screenplay, Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson play), Cristian Mungiu’s Palme d’Or winner “Fjord” (an International Feature, Original Screenplay and, maybe, Best Picture play), and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a Sudden” (an International Feature, maybe Actress, Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay play).
But that’s not the only surprise entry into the mix. May we focus your attention on Simon Stone’s “Elisnore.” The Studio Canal-financed drama follows the final years of famed British actor Ian Charleson (Andrew Scott), who starred in “Chariots of Fire,” but is known for his landmark turn in a stage production of “Hamlet,” which he performed suffering major complications from AIDS in the fall of 1989 (a production directed by the Richard Eyre who eventually helmed “Notes on a Scandal” and “Iris”). This is also a movie that, like “Artificial,” has gotten into every festival it has screened for. And, we don’t want to overhype it, but to a person, every studio that has seen it has said Andrew Scott is winning Best Actor. Not getting nominated. Not in the race. He’s winning. As one exec told me, it was similar to watching Rene Zellwegger in early screenings of “Judy.” You just knew.
Yes, that’s a lot of pressure on an unseen movie, but hey, we’re just reporting.
The film also stars Olivia Colman, Johnny Flynn (we believe as Eyre), Joe Locke, and Billy Piper (who earned individual kudos). As you can guess, the movie is also a tearjerker. Cracking the Best Picture 10 is not out of the question, but it’s seen as a multi-nominee with Scott at the forefront. And, to be fair, even if he’s only nominated or takes a BAFTA, the excitement is palpable. Again, we are only reporting. We have not screened the film. But everyone who has says it’s going to be a thing, and these are sources in the trenches.
Who picks up “Elsinore” remains to be seen. Only U.S. rights are available, and CAA has strategically played some distributors against each other in the bidding process (as is the way). That being said, it’s expected a deal will close somewhat soon. It’s also not the only film that could be a “late” arriving awards player.
Danny Boyle’s “Inc,” with Guy Pearce as Rupert Murdoch, is close to finding a home, while Werner Herzog’s “Bucking Fastard,” starring Kate Mara and Rooney Mara (telegraphed to Venice after the filmmaker balked at not being selected for competition at Cannes), will also garner attention. And a few other titles are looking to surprise, but that’s tea for another day.
Keeping that in mind and realizing we are halfway through the qualifying year, let’s look at an overview of the Best Picture race based on what has been seen and what is upcoming. And, yes, there are numerous acting, writing, Original Song, and screenplay category contenders who won’t find Best Picture love. Any awards season starts with the top category, though.
SEEN AND LIKELY NOMINEES
“Project Hail Mary”
Would it be shocking if it didn’t get nominated? The question is can Amazon MGM and their team land star Ryan Gosling and directors Chris Miller and Phil Lord nominations too?
“La Bola Negra”
Netflix has to temper the buzz, but there is enough competition that any concern regarding over hype after Cannes is no longer a concern. Also, Penelope Cruz Supporting Actress nomination watch.
SEEN AND IN THE MIX
“Fjord”
Neon’s latest Palme D’Or winner is certainly in the International Film and Original Screenplay mix. Is it really a Best Picture play? Long way to go and happy to be proven wrong.
“The Invite”
Writers already love this movie. So much so that Rashida Jones and Will McCormick may be an easier Adapted Screenplay nomination play than A24 thought. Best Picture play…maybe? Depending on the box office? Also, the second Penelope Cruz Supporting Actress nomination watch. And as we wrote about in The Breakdown, a dual campaign could do I
UNSEEN PUBLICLY AND IN THE MIX
“Dune Part Three”
The source material is a big departure from the first two adaptations, but from everything we’ve seen (including an extended CinemaCon sneak), Denis Villeneuve has done it again.
“Artificial”
The hype says it’s, at a minimum, a Best Picture nominee, Best Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay player too.
“Wild Horse Nine”
Martin McDonagh? I don’t know why you’re gagging. He brings it every time. And it looks like John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell will be adding to their Oscar nomination coffers.
“The Odyssey”
Critic reactions will arrive sooner rather than later. Christopher Nolan prefers organic response as opposed to pre-release awards planning, so reviews and box office will dictate. But, does anyone really doubt it?
“Digger”
The extended preview from CinemaCon screams echoes of “Doctor Strangelove,” a genuinely transformative Tom Cruise performance and a very political message. Also, does anyone think Warner Bros. can keep Alejandro G. Iñárritu from at least sneaking it at Telluride? I mean, come on…
“The Debut”
Potentially A24’s major fall player. Jesse Eisenberg‘s follow-up to “A Real Pain” appears to be a major showcase for stars Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. Eisenberg already directed one Oscar winner. Can he guide another…or two?
“The Social Reckoning”
Its pedigree says awards movie. If it’s at Venice or Telluride, that means Sony thinks it is. If not…
“Elsinore”
You rarely hear this sort of universal reaction. Let’s hope it can live up to the hype…we may have started.
“Werwulf”
Can Robert Eggers follow up to “Nosferatu” make an awards jump beyond below-the-line love? Can Aaron Johnson or Lily-Rose Depp find their way into the spotlight? Ponder.
“Behemoth!”
Will Tony Gilroy’s latest be done in time for a 2026 release? That’s the question.
“The Mosquito Bowl”
Peter Berg’s WWII European theater thriller is in the vein of “Hacksaw Ridge” and “All Quiet on the Western Front.” At worst, a below-the-line player? Ray Nicholson is reportedly fantastic.
UNCLEAR
“Michael”
It’s going to make close to or surpass $1 billion worldwide. Reviews are not great, but could it crack the 10? Will Lionsgate pursue a legit and pricey awards campaign to snag a Best Picture slot? Or is it just a Jafaar Jackson, Costumes, Sound and Hair and Makeup contender?
a“Sense and Sensibility”
Georgia Oakley’s adaptation has to bring something new to the table, or it’s going to have a tough time with members over 40 who still have fond memories of Ang Lee’s 1995 version. It’s that simple.
“Obsession”
Inde Navarrette will receive a legit Supporting Actress campaign. Curry Barker could try for Original Screenplay. Best Picture? Feels like a stretch but…it is gonna make $400 million global…
“Josephine”
Won the both the Grand Jury Dramatic and the Audience Award at Sundance. That’s more rare than you think. Young Mason Reeves is incredible, but the movie is a legit tough watch. A major Spirit Awards and Gotham Awards contender, but Oscars? I mean…I guess? Especially if critical love continues.
“I Play Rocky”
Sports movie #1 (sorta): Based on the CinemaCon preview, we’re not sure it’s a Best Picture player, but Anthony Ippolito will turn heads as a young Sylvester Stallone. Watch out.
“Madden”
Sports movie #2: David O. Russell. Nicholas Cage. Christian Bale. Kathryn Hahn. Sienna Miller. John Mulaney. Are people sleeping on this one?
“Mr. Irrelevant: The John Tuggle Story”
Sports movie #3: Someone leaked how great this tested, and with a Christmas release, some awards attention is not out of the question, but excuse our current skepticism. If they book it for a TIFF premiere three months before release? Then it’s time to revisit.
“Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother”
Amazon MGM Studios is treating “Mogul Mowgli” director Bassam Tariq‘s thriller as a legit awards film. With two-time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali as your lead, why not?
“Klara and the Sun”
Pretty sure this is just a commercial play, but anything is possible, amirite.
“Disclosure Day”
Best Picture is an epic longshot, but Emily Blunt in the Best Actress race still feels like a thing. Depending on how willing she is to campaign in the fall.
“Primetime”
Robert Pattinson in the Best Actor race? Sure, we can see it. Can also not see it.
“Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!”
A crowd pleaser from Sundance that could surprise if Sony Classics can figure out the right campaign. With a just-announced Sept. 25 release date, it’s gonna have a long runway (also screams TIFF screening).
We’ll have more tea when the Venice Film Festival lineup drops later this month.
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