Breathe easy, awards season faithful, voting has finally begun. Yes, the long 2025-2026 Oscar season is crawling to a Winter Olympics delayed end as Academy members begin making their final selections for the 98th Academy Awards. Many winners are a given. “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” in Original Song. Jessie Buckley from “Hamnet” for Best Actress. “One Battle After Another” auteur Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director. And, in theory, this weekend’s PGA and SAG Actor Awards will finally put the Best Picture race between “One Battle” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” to rest and, hopefully, provide some clarity to the seemingly very competitive Supporting Actor and Actress races.
Or maybe everyone is just hoping for a little bit of tension for what could be a very predictable night. That despite twists and turns at numerous awards shows, including the BAFTA Awards this past Sunday. And, no, we’re not just referring to the BBC’s unfortunate decision not to edit out a racial slur.
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Notably, Oscar nominees Timothee Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan, and Ethan Hawke could not snag the Best Actor trophy in the UK. Instead, someone relatively unknown on this side of the Atlantic (unless you were a “Lord of the Rings” TV series fan), Robert Aramayo, won for the UK indie hit, “I Swear,” a movie that debuted out of TIFF and Sony Classics is releasing stateside in April. This was sort of an upset, but many BAFTA observers thought he had a genuine chance to win for weeks. The film also won Casting, and Aramayo took Rising Star (at 33-years-old, no less), demonstrating his popularity in the UK overall.
Obviously, Aramayo is not in the Oscar race, but his win shows how open Best Actor really is. Chalamet campaigned like a monster, and “Marty Supreme” was a huge hit in the UK ($21 million so far), and still couldn’t win. And surprisingly, this may not open the door for DiCaprio, Jordan, or Hawke, but instead for “The Secret Agent’s” Wagner Moura, who wasn’t even nominated by BAFTA. There is now a window for “Moura” to win (and if he doesn’t, he absolutely would have locked this up if he had social media). So, the question is, will enough academy members feel like they can vote for him? Or will everything that will happen over the next week – which includes Chalamet likely winning at the Actor Awards – make the “Marty” star’s ascension a given? Was this BAFTA loss just a rare miss on the season?
Ponder.
That being said, the supporting categories are even more intriguing. The fact that Sean Penn won BAFTA, without any campaigning, like barely any campaigning, barely attending any events, would lead many to believe his win was probably a split vote in the UK (this was his first win in four tries). Does that mean Penn is going to win at the Oscars? He certainly has a better shot now than his co-star, Benicio del Toro. But, this could actually open the door for “Sentimental Value’s” Stellan Skarsgard to win or for “Sinners'” Delroy Lindo to pull off a very deserving upset. To be fair, Lindo has been a stealth contender since nominations were revealed, who many in the media should take way more seriously for snagging this honor. Lindo was snubbed by SAG for the Actor Awards, but if his co-star Miles Caton or, say, “Frankenstein’s” Jacob Elordi takes that trophy, watch out.
Supporting actress is a little more complicated. Wunmi Mosaku is a very well-known actress in the UK. She has starred on numerous UK television series and is already a BAFTA TV Award winner. The fact that she won for “Sinners” is not that surprising in that context. Can she win the Oscar? The BAFTA win certainly helps her case and gave Warner Brothers’ “Sinners” team something to compete with, but they also have the two other main contenders in the mix: “One Battle’s” Teyana Taylor and “Weapons” star Amy Madigan. Whoever wins the SAG Actor may tell the tale. If Taylor takes SAG, it’s probably a lock for her on Oscar night. But if Madigan sneaks in, or one of the “Sentimental Value” stars somehow wins, things are much more up in the air.
But wait, let’s clarify: if Mosaku wins the Actor and “Sinners” wins Ensemble, she’s beyond safe. If Taylor wins the Actor and “One Battle” wins Ensemble, she’s likely back in the driver’s seat. If Madigan wins the Actor and any film other than “Sinners” or “One Battle” takes the Ensemble award, she has a much better shot, and it may be a flip ’em on Oscar night.
If you are paying attention, there appears to be a scenario where “One Battle” may end up without an acting category win and still experience a Best Picture triumph. It’s not common, but not that uncommon either. Movies that took Best Picture this century without one of its actors winning a statue include “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” “Crash,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “Argo,” “Spotlight,” and, most recently, “Parasite.”
Other categories that deserve your attention include International Feature, where Neon’s “Sentimental Value” is seemingly in a race against “The Secret Agent,” Documentary, where “The Perfect Stranger” may face legit competition from BAFTA winner “Mr. Nobody Versus Putin,” and Cinematography where “Train Dreams” Adolpho Velso and “One Battle’s” Michael Bauman are challenging “Sinners” D.P. Autumn Durald Arkapaw.
Final voting for the 98th Academy Awards ends on Wednesday, March 5, at 5 PM PT. The 2026 Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 15, and broadcast live on ABC and Hulu beginning at 4 PM PT, 7 PM ET.
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