There’s almost always one. An Oscar upset that was always possible but likely not probable. Frankly, it’s often the most exciting part of watching the telecast.
Last year the Academy shocked the world by selecting “Moonlight” as Best Picture over “La La Land.” Two years ago Mark Rylance had something of an awards season comeback by squeaking by the late surging Sylvester Stallone for Best Supporting Actor. In 2012 “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo” came out of almost nowhere to win Editing over Best Picture winner “The Artist” and “Hugo.” In 2010 Geoffrey Fletcher’s work on “Precious” took Adapted Screenplay over long presumed favorite “Up in the Air” by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner. In 2008, and much to her surprise, Tilda Swinton won Best Supporting Actress over sentimental favorite Ruby Dee. Not always, but almost always there’s a big surprise somewhere. Even if it’s in the shorts categories
Before we consider any true upsets let’s visit the elephant in the room: Best Picture. After “Get Out” won the Best Original Screenplay honor at the WGA Awards this past weekend the race for Oscar’s top prize is simply too close to call. “The Shape of Water,” “Get Out” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” all have a legitimate shot to win with far off upsets from “Dunkirk” and “Lady Bird” still in the realm of possibility. So, we’re not going to consider an upset in the top category at the moment because there simply is no perceived “lock” at the moment.
Academy members don’t begin to vote until Tuesday, February 20th, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t five categories to consider for potential upsets.
James Ivory loses out in Adapted Screenplay
Yes, Ivory has won the USC Scripter Award and the WGA Award in this category, but we’re not sold Academy members are going full tilt with the 89-year-old filmmaking legend. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams have a great chance for an upset with their screenplay for “Mudbound,” a movie that was likely the 10th or 11th pick for a Best Picture nod. Moreover, this may (or may not) be the one category the Academy can reward “Mudbound” (more on that in a minute) and chances are more of them saw it over fellow Sundance premiere “Call Me By Your Name” (as hard as that may be to believe).
Upset Chance: 50%
Willem Dafoe takes Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell has dominated the season winning the Golden Globe, the Critic’s Choice and the SAG Award. Actors also clearly love “Three Billboards” awarding it the SAG Ensemble honor and three Oscar acting nominations (a feat matched only by “Shape of Water” this year). That being said, we cannot repeat enough that the Academy is completely its own animal from the guilds. Dafoe is a borderline legendary actor (give him another five to 10 years and he’ll universally own it) who has worked in Hollywood, the American independent and the global filmmaking world for decades. Some may argue “The Florida Project” was barely seen by Academy members and judging by this being its sole nomination it’s hard to argue that. However, Dafoe’s name means something on a ballot. Many believe he should be in the club (and more than a few members would be surprised he isn’t). Upsetting Rockwell would be a huge, but an influx of international members could make it happen.
Upset Chance: 25%
Laurie Metcalf wins Supporting Actor
No one has worked the circuit more effortlessly than Allison Janney. Beyond her own wins at the Globes, SAG and Critic’s Choice, the “I, Tonya” star has presented at a ton of other functions often slaying the room with one hilariously written quip after another. But, that only goes so far. Janney’s work in “Tonya” is largely comedic and it’s incredibly rare for a comedy performance to win in any category (you could argue Penelope Cruz fell into that category in 2009 for “Vicky Christina Barcelona” but the last real qualifier would be Dianne Wiest in “Bullets Over Broadway” 23 years ago. Like Janney, Metcalf is an Emmy winner, but she’s also a Tony winner which gives her a leg up with some New York voters who consistently see her on Broadway (she starts previews for “Three Tall Women” on Feb. 27 just days before the Academy Awards). Many members may also see this category as their only option to recognize “Lady Bird” and Metcalf’s phenomenal performance more than justifies it. Janney has history on her side (and might have even more of it after the BAFTAs), but Metcalf could still come out on top.
Upset Chance: 35%
Roger Deakins loses once again
In theory, no one wants the “Blade Runner 2049” cinematographer to lose for a 14th time. Frankly, that would be an embarrassment to the Academy and the industry overall. However, it remains to be seen how much the general membership actually likes Denis Villeneuve’s masterwork. Across the season it went belly up in search of any guild and eventually Oscar notations that were not relegated to below the line. Too many members may see the title, remember their distaste and simply be adverse to voting for it (talk to Academy members, it happens). That would leave the door open for either Rachel Morrison (“Mudbound”) who would not only become the first woman to get nominated in the category, but obviously the first one to win as well. Also, don’t count out “Dunkirk’s” Hoyte van Hoytema or, if the membership truly love it, “The Shape of Water’s” Dan Laustsen to upset. We’re not saying Warner Bros. should be guilting the membership into voting for the most “worthy” winner in Deakins, but we’re not not saying it either.
Upset Chance: 50%
“A Fantastic Woman” loses Foreign Language Film
What a strange year for the Foreign Language Film category. None of the nominees has truly been abler to distinguish itself with critical honors outside of Russia’s “Loveless” which somehow absolutely no one is talking about (“Foxtrot,” which wasn’t nominated, also took a ton of year-end honors). In theory, Chile’s “A Fantastic Woman” is the frontrunner. It’s a fantastic, emotionally resonant film and both director Sebastián Lelio and star Daniela Vega have been working the circuit since Telluride. But it missed out on high profile wins at the Globes and didn’t even pull through at the Critics Choice (don’t get us started on how the BFCA likely voted in this category). It also doesn’t have the benefit of taking the BAFTA honor this weekend as it won’t qualify until next year (of this year’s nominees only “Loveless” is in the mix). So, things are beyond shaky if you’re in the “Fantastic” camp. On the other hand, you have Sweden’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner “The Square” which has defied its polarizing nature to make it this far with a passionate fanbase and a very familiar supporting actress in Elisabeth Moss. There’s also Hungary’s “Of Body And Soul” which came out of nowhere after FLF voting members actually saw it. The Netflix title is streaming worldwide, but the question is whether enough general members will watch it. Making matters more intriguing is that none of the major players are truly spending for the win in phase 2. Even Netflix is mostly concentrating their substantial efforts on “Icarcus” in Best Documentary and “Mudbound.” That’s why a film like “The Square,” which won the European Film Award for Best Picture (don’t forget those international voters), could potentially upset the “Fantastic” Chilean contender (shoot, if enough people watch it on Netflix “Of Body and Soul” could too.
Upset Chance: 50%
Agree? Disagree? See any other potential upsets on the horizon this year?