As states move towards reopening businesses, moviegoers find themselves wondering which 2020 theatrical releases might be salvaged. Last week, Variety reported that movie theaters were holding out hope for “Tenet,” Christopher Nolan’s science-fiction blockbuster currently slated for a July 17 release. According to the article, Nolan himself has become a behind-the-scenes champion for “Tenet” as the first major post-COVID-19 release, with Warner Bros. executives torn on whether to market or delay the film. Regardless if “Tenet” will be the film to usher in a new era of moviegoing, it will certainly be the film that shapes all future conversations.
But while industry analysts grapple with the long-term prospects of the ongoing pandemic, the human element is often left out of the conversation. Also this past week, Pew Research released a study showing that the vast majority of Americans (68%) are worried that “restrictions on public activity imposed by state governments in response to the coronavirus will be lifted too quickly.” This study effectively repeats the results of Pew Research’s April survey, showing that most Americans are still more concerned about the virus’s health impact than its economic impact.
This raises an important question: as we move towards the inevitable reopening of businesses, how do we continue to give equal weight to the health concerns in these conversations? As long as the conversation is focused more on the feeling of safety than safety itself, we run the risk of taking a short-sighted approach to the reopening of the industry.
Those skeptical about the future of the theatrical experience would do well to read James Emmanuel Shapiro’s most recent article at Birth.Movies.Death. Shapiro, who oversees analytics for the Alamo Drafthouse chain, makes two important points: first, that the biggest chunk of theatrical revenue is earned by the top 1,500 theaters in the country, and second, that most movies earn their revenue in the first few weeks of distribution. Both studios and theaters, Shapiro concludes, are incentivized to find a way to make this model work – and even with a significant reduction in theater locations, movie theaters might even emerge from this period stronger than ever.
This is a bit of much-needed good news for moviegoers across the country, but it still leaves a lot of unanswered questions about the short-term future. For one, for all the talk of movie theaters delaying their opening to ensure the safety of their customers, there seems to be no consensus on how to even talk about this safety with customers. While restaurants were able to quickly pivot to the takeout model – marked parking spots, text ordering systems, contactless delivery – the in-person element of the movie theater experience comes with an additional element of risk. Forget protecting audiences; until movie theaters can effectively market the idea of protection to audiences, many will likely stay away.
Last week, for example, Alamo Drafthouse sent an email survey to its customers with a blend of practical and aggressive solutions. Proposals of staggered seating, temperature scanners, and a “no coughing” rule were included, and customers were encouraged to select which precautions – if any – would factor into their decision to return to the local Drafthouse theater. While it was heartening to see an exhibitor take nothing off the table, this survey also suggests that there is no clear consensus on what a safe theater experience might look like. As a result, the people least likely to practice social distancing in other aspects of their lives might be the ones most willing to gamble on an early return.
These questions also point to the larger disconnect in how we talk about health regarding the theatrical experience. Asking someone what makes them “feel safe” is not the same as providing them safety. While many of these organizations will do everything in their power to limit audience exposure to COVID-19, it is notable that outlets like Variety include comments from box office analysts and consultants, not medical professionals who can speak the effectiveness of different strategies. The Los Angeles Times even made that the headline of a recent piece, asking its readers, “How will movie theaters make customers feel safe after coronavirus?” That article, too, speaks with multiple analysts and no medical professionals.
This disconnect is especially worrisome in the face of a possible second COVID-19 wave. Just as the Spanish Flu was deadliest in the fall of 1918, some medical professionals worry that a second wave of the pandemic may be in America’s future. In his weekly podcast, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch warned that most cities and states are poorly prepared to close a second time should we see another outbreak in the fall. “We will have a harder time controlling coronavirus in the fall,” Lipsitch explained, “and we will all be very tired of social distancing and other tactics.”
There is no mention of a second wave in the Variety piece, no discussion of what might happen if theaters are forced to close a second time in November due to a spike in COVID-19 cases. This is a shortsighted approach for studios, exhibitors, and audiences alike. Until we are willing to treat the spread of the virus as a foregone conclusion, we risk repeating the mistakes – and the politics – of other industries. We may all be deeply invested in the preservation of the theatrical experience, but if the movie industry has made its case for a pre-vaccine return to our local multiplex, it is hard to feel like it is a convincing one.
None of this is meant to suggest that Drafthouse or any of the other exhibitors mentioned won’t fight tooth and nail to protect their customers. Rather, the suggestion here is that, after weeks of sheltering in place, we are still struggling to come to terms with the reality of our situation. Until we talk about this issue more as a health concern than a marketing concern, we run the risk of doing irreparable damage to the system if and when things get worse. Thanks to Shapiro’s research, we should have every confidence that theaters will survive. Let’s make sure that the audiences do, too.