“Hedda”
Amazon MGM Studios
Already selected as an opening night film at TIFF 2025, “Hedda” is one of two Nia DaCosta-directed films arriving in theaters over the next six months. This Amazon MGM Studios production was almost ready for last awards season (hence DaCosta also being able to direct “28 Years Later: The Bone Temple”), but Amazon MGM held it back. The October 22 release date is certainly not a “TIFF” dump strategy, so the question is whether its primarily a Tessa Thompson Best Actress play or something more.
“After the Hunt”
Amazon MGM Studios
You all haven’t seen the trailer for this one yet, but CinemaCon did, and it was giving peak Adrian Lyne in the best way possible. Moreover, it’s Gen Z vs. Millennial vs. Gen X culture clash and will have people talking. Julia Roberts, Ayo Edebiri (overexposure may be an issue), and Andrew Garfield are also all in play for acting noms. Best Picture? Director? Screenplay? Possible.
“Rental Family”
Searchlight Pictures
Brendan Fraser’s first real follow-up to “The Whale” (we’re going to forget that unfortunate performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon” ever happened) finds him playing an American in Japan who can be “rented” out for numerous roles. The second feature film from Hikari, who directed the pilot and numerous episodes of “BEEF,” this movie could be an awards crowd pleaser or fade away in a hot minute. A big question mark for this year’s awards season.
“Is This Thing On?”
Searchlight Pictures
Bradley Cooper’s latest directorial effort gives the spotlight to Will Arnett as a stand-up comedian navigating a divorce with Laura Dern in New York City. Filming wrapped a few months ago, and Searchlight is hoping to pull a “Complete Unknown” and have it in theaters by year’s end, but it’s possible Cooper doesn’t finish in time, and it pushes to 2026.
“Anemone”
Focus Features
Daniel Day-Lewis un-retired from acting for his son’s directorial debut. ‘Nuff said.
“Hamnet”
Focus Features
Chloe Zhao’s fifth feature takes her to the dawn of the 17th century as William and Agnes Shakespeare (Paul Mescal, Jessie Buckley) recover from the death of their son Hamnet. Likely a fall festival player with a Nov. 27th release, methinks Zhao should not be underestimated. Especially when she’s working with “Cold War” and “Zone of Interest” cinematographer Łukasz Żal. Best Picture? Best Actress? Best Actor? Best Director? It’s all on the table.
“Bugonia”
Focus Features
Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone have made prestige art house magic three times before (you’ll never convince me to not praise the now massively underrated “Kinds of Kindness”). and Jesse Plemons is obviously no slouch either. Word is the script is weirder than you’d expect for this remake of Jang Joon-hwan‘s 2003 film “Save the Green Planet!” but, hey, that might work in 2025. Considering where the world is at the moment, the events in “Bugonia’ may seem tame to AMPAS members five months from now. Another Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, and Original Score contender.
“The Smashing Mashine”
A24
The first Safdie brother Oscar contender has already been leaked as a Venice Film Festival premiere. Dwayne Johnson transformed himself to portray legendary UFC fighter Mark Kerr in the Benny Safdie-directed biopic inspired by the HBO documentary of the same name. Emily Blunt portrays Kerr’s wife, and both she and Johnson are expected to be Best Actress and Best Actor players, respectively. Considering Johnson’s fanbase has been salivating for him to take on a role like this for years, the movie might end up being the biggest box office hit in A24’s history, and that could immediately propel it to a Best Picture nomination and much more.
“Marty Supreme”
A24
The second Safdie brother Oscar contender features Timothee Chalamet as a champion pro ping pong player in the 1950s and 1960s. Will it land Chalamet another Best Actor nomination? Maybe. Is the movie full of actors who will get Academy members’ attention? Yes (Gwyneth Paltrow, SAG president Fran Dresher, to name a few). Will Josh Safdie be looking at landing more Oscar noms for “Marty” than his brother will with “Smashing Machine”? The period setting certainly doesn’t hurt its chances at pulling that off.
“Roofman”
Paramount Pictures
We get it. This movie looks super commercial. But sometimes a trailer is selling you two things at once. We have no doubt this true story looks like a broad play to middle America, and “Foxcatcher” aside, Channing Tatum is not necessarily a prestige player. Take a step back, though. This movie was directed and co-written by Derek Cianfrance. And anyone who knows Kirsten Dunst is well aware she picks her once-a-year roles wisely (she’s in Ruben Östlund’s next movie in 2026). That October 10 opening is meant for word of mouth to play out through Thanksgiving, but it’s also a key Best Picture nomination release date. And, hey, we may eventually learn the movie doesn’t have the awards season goods, but if it didn’t, a pre-Skydance merger Paramount would not be spending to drop it in October. Now, if it isn’t at Venice or Telluride, and only TIFF? It’s likely a solid commercial play for the Mountain. Something tells us it will be at Telluride, though, which means…don’t discount it.
“Nuremberg”
Sony Classics
James Vanderbilt’s directorial debut, 2015’s “Truth,” was nothing to write home about, but the longtime Hollywood studio screenwriter knows how to recruit a cast. Rami Malek, Russell Crowe, Michael Shannon, Richard E. Grant, John Slattery, and Leo Woodall is nothing to sneeze at. Throw in its WWII setting and the historic Nuremberg trials, and that’s prime Oscar bait right there. Is it more than that, though? We’re suspicious, but happy to be proven wrong.
LOOKING FOR DISTRIBUTION:
Steven Soderbergh’s “The Christophers”
UNCLEAR IF IT WILL MAKE IT IN 2025:
David Lowrey’s “Mother Mary”
HOPE IT’S GREAT BUT NOT CONVINCED IT’S A PLAYER:
Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”
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Editor-at-Large Gregory Ellwood is one of the entertainment industry's most respected journalists and critics. Based in Los Angeles, he's the only current awards expert who previously worked on Oscar campaigns at a major movie studio. Over the years, he has written for the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Vox, among others. He also co-founded the entertainment news site HitFix, which spawned a legion of influential Emmy and WGA Award-winning alumni.
