Ah, you thought you were safe. Yes, there is only six months until the Oscars 2026 qualification deadline, and a plethora of awards season contenders are waiting in the wings, ready to pounce on unsuspecting Academy and guild members. To be fair, we already have one major contender. In fact, we’d suggest there is a potential Best Picture winner in Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which is universally loved across the industry. But competition is right around the corner.
It may be hard to fathom, but there are at least 25, yes, twenty-five, other movies vying for one of 10 Best Picture nomination slots this season. And that doesn’t even include the films without distribution that will be dropping at Venice, Telluride, and TIFF, hoping for a “Brutalist,” “I’m Still Here,” “The Lost Daughter,” or “Jackie” awards season run. Frankly, in what is actually a healthy sign for the movie business, it may feel more like an onslaught than usual.
Or, it may not. These contenders do start to drop like flies, don’t they? I mean, they’ll start dropping light flies, right?
Keeping all that in mind, let’s take a look at the players we already know of and the contenders headed to theaters in the months ahead.
EXISTING CONTENDERS
“Sinners”
Warner Bros.
Wait, we have a front runner? Yes, we not only have a guaranteed Best Picture nominee, but we’ve got a front-runner as well. Best Director (Ryan Coogler), Best Original Screenplay, Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku, Hailee Steinfeld), Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Casting, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Visual Effects, and Costumes, all up for grabs. Don’t screw it up Warner Bros. Don’t. Screw. It. Up.
“Train Dreams”
Netflix
“Sing Sing” and “The Jockey’s” Clint Bentley has directed and co-written a beautiful period tale that is a shoo-in for a Cinematography nomination (Adolpho Veloso) and a potential Best Actor player for Joel Edgerton. This quiet and profound Sundance acquisition has a legit shot at Best Picture nomination if it doesn’t get lost in the swarm of fall releases. And, yes, we’re worried (this is where box office and theatrical distribution would help).
“Sentimental Value”
NEON
One of the best things Joachim Trier’s masterful, humanist drama has going for it from an awards perspective is that a good chunk of it is in English. It also stars Stellan Skarsgard, a Best Supporting Actor contender, and Elle Fanning in major roles. The star of the movie, of course, is Renate Reinsve, who may finally get her Oscar nomination after being snubbed for the stellar “Worst Person in the World.” The film effectively came in second at Cannes, a jury dominated by Academy members, and its subject matter should play with industry voters. It needs a great Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF trifecta to break through its North American unveiling, however. In theory, it’s a Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Best Director, Best Actress, Supporting Actor, Casting, and Editing contender, at a minimum.
“Nouvelle Vague”
Netflix
Richard Linklater’s entertaining drama about the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless” is one of those movies where those who love it simply adore it. When you’re campaigning for a Best Picture nomination, that’s often all you need. The question is whether there are enough of those fans to drown out the naysayers and if enough of them are overseas to push it across the finish line. Outside of a Best Picture nod, Best Actor (Guillaume Marbeck), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Casting are all in play. If Netflix can get enough members to watch it in a theater with an audience, it’s got a shot to go very, very far.
READ MORE: Can NEON and MUBI keep Cannes Oscars streak alive? A breakdown of all the contenders
“It Was Just An Accident”
NEON
In a pleasant surprise, the government of Iran let director Jafar Panahi attend the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, where “Accident” won the Palme d’Or. The film’s subject matter is not politically ideal for the Islamic state, but will they really not submit it for International Feature Film? Frankly, they may not. We loved “Accident,” but we’re also not convinced it will play with members enough to land a Best Picture nomination. In theory, its best shots are Best Director, Original Screenplay, and the aforementioned International Feature Film category. Then again, global politics may also come into play. Right now, it appears Panahi would not be allowed to even visit the U.S. thanks to a travel ban on Iranian nationals set forth by the Trump administration’s overzealous State Department. NEON may be able to use this to their advantage, or, not having Panahi on the ground in NY or LA, may hurt their chances overall. If any movie is a wildcard this season, it’s “Accident.”
“Sirāt”
NEON
Likely Spain’s International Feature Film submission, “Sirāt” would need to seriously spark in festival and industry screenings to come close to a deserved Best Picture nomination. Our gut instinct says it will get lost, but if domestic critics adore it and it surprises at year-end critics groups honors, it’s possible. In this competitive year, still a long shot beyond the International category, where, at worst, it will land on the shortlist.
“Die My Love”
MUBI
The prestige streamer paid a hefty price for U.S. and global rights to Lynne Ramsey’s Cannes melodrama. The studio is hoping it can duplicate this past year’s success with “The Substance,” but we’re not so sure. We’re also not 100% convinced former Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence, who is quite good, can crack a super competitive Best Actress race for this particular performance and movie. We’ll know more after industry screenings occur in September. That being said, if JLa campaigns hard for it, she might just sneak in on charisma alone.
“Sound of Falling”
MUBI
Expected to be Germany’s International Film Submission, Mascha Schilinski is a longshot Best Director nominee, and Fabian Gamper is a hopeful for Cinematography. Anything more would be stunning.
“The Secret Agent”
NEON
Likely Brazil’s International Film Submission, “Agent,” is very compelling, but doesn’t exactly have the heart that pushed “I’m Still Here” to three nominations this past January. That being said, Wagner Moura, who has starred in “Civil War,” “Narcos,” and “Dope Thief,” is much more well-known by the Acting branch than Frenanda Torres was. His Hollywood and SAG connections could help him if the Best Actor race is as uncompetitive as it has been in recent years.
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
A24
There has been an acclaimed performance that A24 has been holding on to since January. It’s Rose Byrne in Mary Bronstein’s fantastic “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” And like the seemingly last minute SAG love for Sebastian Stan in another Sundance premiere, 2024’s “A Different Man,” Byrne could be in play for a Best Actress nomination. The question is whether A24 can drive enough attention to what will effectively be a small, art-house release. The good news is unlike 12 months ago, when the mini-major had too many contenders to deal with, it effectively only has two other players in the mix this time around (more on that in a hot minute). Granted, they are big ones, but A24 should not be spread too thin this time around. If Byrne can pound the pavement? Watch this space, pt. 1.
