“Pillion”
A24
Another small movie we assume A24 did not expect to have such a rapturous response was Harry Lighton’s directorial debut “Pillion.” The unconventional gay BDSM romance debuted in Cannes’ Un Certain Regard section, where it won Best Screenplay. The surprise was not that gay critics appreciated it, but that, seemingly, straight identifying critics and media seemed to like it even more. Both Harry Melling and Alexander Skarsgård‘s performances earned rave reviews, but does that up to anything more than Gotham and Spirit Awards noms? Will enough AMPAS members watch it on their screening app? Or attend a screening? We’re genuine fans, but somewhat skeptical. Still, a watch this space, pt. 2.
“F1”
Apple Studios, Warner Bros.
The story on Joseph Kosenski’s Formula One drama hasn’t been completely written yet. The movie, Brad Pitt, and, notably, Kerry Condon, have gotten strong reviews, and the box office is percolating. If the movie is a genuine financial hit, if it can earn over $500+ million dollars and force the naysayers to admit its profitable long term, Apple Studios has a story on its hands. And if Apple, which financed the film, takes over the awards campaign while WB focuses on “Sinners” and another auteur work, “F1” has a shot beyond just below-the-line categories such as Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design. Essentially, Best Picture and Supporting Actress noms could be up for grabs as well. But, again, a long way to go.
POTENTIAL SCREENED PARTY CRASHERS*
Josh O’Connor for “Rebuilding,” “The Mastermind,” or “The History of Sound,” Paul Mescal for “The History of Sound,” Meghan Fahey for “Rebuilding,” Denzel Washington for “Highest 2 Lowest,” Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon”
*Sundance and Cannes performances in the mix
POTENTIAL CONTENDERS
“The Ballad of a Small Player”
Netflix
Edward Berger returns less than a year after “Conclave” with this adaptation of Lawrence Osborne’s acclaimed 2014 novel. Starring Colin Farrell and Tilda Swinton, the question is whether it’s just a great prestige thriller or is it something more that will appeal to The Academy. Considering how much Netflix has on its plate, the fact that they are releasing this fall means they think it’s got a legitimate shot at something.
“Frankenstein”
Netflix
Guillermo del Toro’s adaptation of the classic Mary Shelley tale looks like a trademark Del Toro prestige genre film, and Jacob Elrodi appears transformative as Frankenstein’s monster. Is the movie more than a below-the-line play, though? Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Cinematography, Makeup, and Hairstyling? There’s nothing wrong with that, but perhaps expectations for anything else should be tempered?
“Jay Kelly”
Netflix
Noah Baumbach’s follow-up to “Marriage Story” has a jaw-dropping cast, including George Clooney in the title role alongside Adam Sander and Laura Dern, just for starters. Is it as profound as “Marriage” or is it closer to “The Meyerowitz Stories” or “Greenberg”? If the former, a ton is on the table, including Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Director, Original Screenplay, you name it. If not, are we just talking a Golden Globe Awards play?
“A House of Dynamite”
Netflix
Kathryn Bigelow’s first movie since 2017’s disappointing “Detroit,” this time the Oscar-winner’s attention turns to a contemporary political drama. The longline describes the thriller as “A group of White House officials scramble to deal with an incoming missile attack on the U.S.” Those officials are played by Idris Elba, Rebecca Ferguson, Gabriel Basso, and Jared Harris, among others. If it’s in the vein of “The Hurt Locker” or “Zero Dark Thirty,” Netflix will have a major contender across the board to campaign. If not, maybe it’s a solid streaming play for the service.
“One Battle After Another”
Warner Bros.
Originally, Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest opus was supposed to open in August as a semi-summer tentpole release. Now, its September opening is setting up a fall festival debut and, potentially, PTA’s fourth Best Picture nominee. Could Leonardo DiCaprio find himself with another Best Actor nomination? Maybe. Could Teyana Taylor or Regina Hall be in the Supporting Actress mix? Sure, why not. Whatever the case, never bet against PTA…even when he doesn’t want to be in the awards mix.
“Deliver Me From Nowhere”
20th Century Studios
If Scott Cooper’s new biopic is really titled “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere,” then a bit old “Oof.” That is not a movie title that is getting a Best Picture nomination. But, at worst, 20th Century and Disney are hoping to duplicate the “A Complete Unknown” box office and awards success its sister studio Searchlight enjoyed over the holidays. It’s been a long time since Cooper directed an actor to Oscar glory (Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”), and the goal is to get Emmy and SAG winner Jeremy Allen White there as The Boss. Can the movie be even more? The Oscar-friendly October 24 release date certainly doesn’t hurt.
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
20th Century Studios
If anyone is going to doubt James Cameron after “Titanic” and the last two “Avatar” movies, you should probably go put your head under a rock. Simply, “Fire and Ash” is a Best Picture nominee until it’s not.
“Ella McCay”
20th Century Studios
Originally set for September, James L. Brooks’ dramedy is now positioned for a prime holiday, Dec. 12 release. No, this is not a dump. Not yet anyway. 20th Century believes and based on the trailer shown at CinemaCon, there is a chance some of the old Brooks’ magic that hasn’t been seen in almost 30 years since “As Good As It Gets,” may be on the way. Or, maybe it’s just a Golden Globe player. At worst, it’s going to introduce “Sex Education” star Emma Mackey to a brand new audience.
“Wicked for Good”
Universal Pictures
Part one of the “Wicked” musical adaptation landed 10 nominations, winning two for Production Design and Costumes. It’s common knowledge, the second half of the stage show is not as beloved as the first half. Have Jon M. Chu and screenwriters Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox “fixed” the second act issues? Will the reported two new songs make up for “Defying Gravity” being in the first movie? Will Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo duplicate their “Wicked” acting nominations? Is it all gravy for everyone, considering the entire project is already profitable after the first movie? Well, duh.
“The Lost Bus”
Apple Studios
There is Paul Greengrass. There is America Ferrera. There is Matthew McConaughey, who has not starred in a major role in a movie in theaters since before the pandemic. There is this trailer that does not inspire confidence. Ponder.
