The field is almost set. After a string of debuts following the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals, a majority of the films contending for the 2026 Best Picture Oscar have been screened. Granted, there are some major stragglers (“Marty Supreme”) and new chapters from previous nominees still to be seen (“Wicked For Good,” “Avatar: Fire and Ash”), but taking that into account, there are no major surprises on the horizon. No “Black Swan” or “The Brutalist” last-minute acquisitions jumping into the race. And, it appears we have a legit race on our hands with three too close to call frontrunners.
READ MORE: “Hamnet,” “Sentimental Value” Get Massive Oscar Boosts At Telluride 2025
We begin with Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” the presumptive frontrunner since its debut this past Spring. The critical and box office phenomenon came out of left field, partially because of a not-so-great Warner Bros. rollout and marketing campaign (to say that division had turned it around since is an understatement). “Sinners” also put its imprint on the cultural landscape when there was an outcry from moviegoers and the industry looking for something new and original (well, at least that’s what the media told everyone). It’s also been universally adored or praised in all corners of the industry. You never run into anyone who, at the worst, doesn’t respect it. It should get nominations in every category it needs. It can still win.
Barring a “Wicked” surprise, the second frontrunner is Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet,” the hands-down tearjerker of the season. Stellar performances from Jessie Buckley (your Best Actress frontrunner) and Paul Mescal. Superb direction from Zhao. In many ways, its appeal will be the flipside to the last of three contenders, which could also win it all…
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another.” Because we believe we are embargoed from writing about it outside of social media responses, until we can say more, we’ll just note it is a justifiable Best Picture-winning contender. But it goes without saying, PTA has a lot of friends in Hollywood. A lot of friends and colleagues who respect him and want him to get his due. Notably, at the post-screening Q&A last night, Anderson and star Regina Hall reflected on how they had known each other socially for years before finally working together. Moreover, despite eleven nominations, PTA has never won an Academy Award. Will that change this season with Screenplay, Director, or Picture? Or all? Ponder.
And, yes, this means two Warner Bros. titles could win it all. Since the field expanded to 10 nominees, Studios and distributors almost always have multiple contenders, and outside of 2019 and 2023, multiple Best Picture noms have occurred every year. Arguably, the only time a studio had a legit chance to win with either was in 2018 when Searchlight Pictures had “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which took the BAFTA Award for Best Film, and the eventual Oscar winner, “The Shape of Water” (you could also debate that Searchlight had a tough task with “Birdman” vs. “The Grand Budapest Hotel” the year prior). So, what WB and their consultants are about to tackle is not unprecedented, but it’s also rare and will be a delicate balancing act moving forward. It’s also a “problem” their peers would love to have.
Before things get too crazy, however, a reminder that it is just Sept. 11. Nomination ballots are not due until Friday, Jan 16. That’s over four months away. A long time in FYC campaigning, and it’s always a marathon, never a sprint. And in 20 years of covering this as a journalist and pundit, there has never been a season without some hiccup, scandal, or world-changing event to shake things up. No one is wishing for drama, certainly not in this political era, but it seems inherent to the process.
That being said, before we dive into our rankings, let’s give a salute to the great films this year that don’t have a chance in hell at earning a Best Picture nomination or even realistically getting in the conversation. We’re talking about “Black Bag,” “Rebuilding,” “Lurker,” “Twinless,” and “Warfare,” among others. You will not be forgotten (well, hopefully). And then several great films that will likely be just screenplay, actor, or below-the-line plays, such as “Sorry, Baby,” “Pillion,” “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” “28 Years Later,” “Wake Up Dead Man,” “Die, My Love,” and “Kiss of the Spider Woman.” It happens. It’s just part of the game.
And, now, your first Contender Countdown for the 2026 Oscar season.
Sept. 11, 2025
THE UNSEEN*
*these films have not been screened publicly
“Is This Thing On?”
Bradley Cooper’s dramedy is closing the New York Film Festival in a month. Be on the lookout for campaigns for Will Arnett and Laura Dern.
“Marty Supreme”
Will it screen in October? Will it screen in November? Whatever the case, A24 thinks they have a hit and an awards player on its hands.
“Anemone”
Probably not a Best Pic player, but could Daniel Day-Lewis sneak in the Best Actor race?
“Song Sung Blue”
Word is longshot Best Picture player, but watch out for Kate Hudson.
CONTENDER COUNTDOWN
1 “Hamnet” (tie)
Will any contender make voters cry more?
1 “One Battle After Another” (tie)
A major segment of voters will absolutely love it. That might just be enough.
1 “Sinners” (tie)
There is still passion for this one. They need the entire cast to campaign to get it to pull out the win. Coogler showing up at Telluride just to hang and see movies certainly didn’t hurt.
4 “Sentimental Value”
Likely the safest nominee not in the English language. Well, a majority that is.
5 “Wicked For Good”*
Unless Jon M. Chu somehow blows it (highly unlikely), we’re not sure how this doesn’t easily make the 10.
6 “Nouvelle Vague”
The more industry people who see it, the more they fall for its charms. Being France’s International Film submission wouldn’t hurt, Pt. 1.
7 “It Was Just An Accident”
Neon and the Palme d’Or winner have a pretty impressive track record over the past six years. Jafar Panahi has been mobbed by well-wishers in both Telluride and TIFF, with NYFF to go. Being France’s International Film submission wouldn’t hurt, Pt. 2.
8 “Avatar: Fire and Ash”*
At some point, the “Avatar” movies will likely stop getting nominated. We’re not convinced it’s this time around.
9 “A House of Dynamite”
The reviews out of Venice were unexpectedly stellar. We still haven’t seen it. We’d love to see it. Hint, hint, Netflix.
10 “Rental Family”
If it wins TIFF People’s Choice, this might be low. At the moment, a crowd-pleasing bet, but a long way to go.
11 “The Smashing Machine”
Dwanye Johnson and Emily Blunt are nomination-worthy, but Benny Safdie winning Best Director at Venice was a big surprise. However, the movie has even more violent UFC fighting than you’d expect. Will that hurt its chances?
12 “Train Dreams”
The more voters and guild members see this wonder, the better its chances. Especially on the big screen. Why it wasn’t selected for Telluride or NYFF is beyond me.
13 “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
Did it play well at Telluride because of Jeremy Allen White and Stephen Graham’s stellar performances or because Bruce Springsteen was in town? We’ll know more after NYFF.
14 “Jay Kelley”
The actors branch is going to have to get this one in the 10. Will they sympathize with the title character’s arc by the end of the movie? If they do…
15 “No Other Choice”
Not earning a single award from the Venice Film Festival was head-scratching. It’s utterly fantastic, deserving of a spot in the top 10. Will enough members see it, though? Will anyone beat the drum loudly enough for it?
16 “Bugonia”
Emma Stone is likely a Best Actress nominee. There are a below-the-line nomination possibilities, and Jesse Plemons has a shot, but…Telluride was a lot of “like” and not a lot of “love” reactions. Focus has a ton of time until it hits theaters. Will it rise as other contenders falter?
17 “The Secret Agent”
Star Wagner Moura is a very popular man. Watch out for him in the Best Actor race. Like “Choice,” will enough members see it to crack the 10?
18 “F1”
A very, very big hit. A very well-respected movie. How serious is Apple Studios’ campaign for it outside of categories such as editing, sound, and score?
19 “Weapons”
Amy Madigan and Julia Garner are getting real campaigns. So is Zach Cregger for Original Screenplay. Is it a stealth nominee? Could WB break the three Best Picture nominee curse for studios?
20 “Nuremberg”
Pushes broad buttons, and SPC will campaign in this old school style. The subject matter and the political climate don’t hurt. I mean, it’s possible, but the reviews are mid.
21 “Frankenstein”
We don’t doubt Guillermo del Toro’s sway with AMPAS voters over the years, but…
22 “The Lost Bus”
Jamie Lee Curtis is a producer. Not an executive producer, but a P.G.A. producer. Prepare yourselves for a social media and red carpet onslaught.
23 “After The Hunt”
Julia Roberts and Original Screenplay, sure. Can Amazon MGM turn the buzz around for the movie overall? Will it appeal to Academy voters more than critics?
24 “Roofman”
Very good reviews. Crowd pleaser. Box office wouldn’t hurt.
25 “Father, Mother, Sister, Brother”
The Golden Lion win at Venice was a big surprise. Jarmusch doesn’t like to campaign. What am we missing here?
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