In the past week, Hollywood has been flipped on its head. Netflix went from being in the drivers seast to acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery to bowing out to a pricier Paramount Skydance bid. 48 hours later, the SAG Actor Awards threw a wrench into the conventional wisdom on some major Academy Award categories, including Best Picture and Best Actor. Throw in all the events in the Middle East, and it’s been almost a constant state of whiplash. And for those awards contenders, some surprise wins occurred with less than four days left in Oscar voting.
Oh, my.
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This story originally appeared in The Breakdown Newsletter
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On Saturday night at the PGA Awards, after winning the top prize of the night, Paul Thomas Anderson used his time to thank current WB Pictures CEOs Pam Abdy and Michael DeLuca for their efforts on behalf of himself, “Sinners” creator Ryan Coogler, and “Weapons” director Zach Cregger, who were all clustered at nearby tables. It was an incredibly classy gesture, which appeared to move DeLuca, as PTA noted that no one knows what the future may bring (48 hours before, Netflix was going to acquire WB, not the town’s current villain). The fallout from Paramount snatching WBD has felt seismic and is the topic everyone wants to talk about. For those unable to attend, we’ve posted video of PTA’s remarks on Threads, Bluesky, and, for those of you on TikTok, enjoy extended highlights of the night, including genuinely hilarious moments from Greta Gerwig, Seth Rogen, and, yes, Barry Diller (more on that in a hot minute).
Let’s discuss the big news that happened on Sunday night. It appears “Sinners” isn’t ready to hand over that Best Picture trophy yet. No, the Warner Bros. release that racked up a historic 16 nominations not only took the Ensemble honor at SAG (you’ll never get me to not refer to it in any other manner), but Michael B. Jordan shocked pretty much everyone by taking the Male Actor in a Leading Role statue. This, again, after that other Warner Bros. awards monster, “One Battle After Another,” took the PGA Award the night before. So, it begs the question…
Is the “Battle” for Best Picture over?
Frankly, “Sinners” had an incredible night at the SAG Actor Awards. Viola Davis‘ euphoric reveal may have pushed Jordan across the Best Actor finish line for any Academy members who haven’t voted yet. The film also won Outstanding Performance by A Cast In A Motion Picture, which wouldn’t have been a surprise a few weeks ago, but after “One Battle” easily won BAFTA, easily won the PGA Award, and “Sinners” star Wunmi Mosaku lost Supporting Actress, and “One Battle’s” Sean Penn took Supporting Actor…was a tad surprising. Many people seem to have discounted the fact that “Sinners” has all those Oscar nominations, which means it’s pretty universally adored. But to be fair, we still think “One Battle” is your likely winner. If you look back over the past decade, you can count the number of times the SAG ensemble winner has lined up with the Oscar winner on one hand. Those are pretty bad odds. But it’s not really about percentages, it’s about voters. At this point in history, the overall SAG membership has less crossover with AMPAS or even the Academy’s Acting branch as it used to be (thank you, international members). Academy membership is clearly more similar to BAFTA and to the PGA. And even then, we might quibble a little bit with the PGA, and that organization’s pick has lined up with Oscar only seven times over the past 10 years, including every year this decade. We reserve the right to change our pick, but for the moment, it’s still “One Battle” for the win…maybe.
Did Michael B. Jordan just shake up the best actor race?
You bet he did. The prevailing wisdom was that the win was between “Marty Supreme’s” Timothee Chalamet and “The Secret Agent’s” Wagner Moura. The latter having endured a tremendous amount of old school, Sony Pictures Classics-esque on the ground campaigning over the past couple of months in LA, NY, shoot, you name it. Showing how dissimilar SAG is from its AMPAS acting peers, Moura didn’t make the Actor Award cut. Notably, the union seemingly loved “Marty Surpreme,” also nominating it for Supporting Actress and Ensemble. And even though SAG crowned Chalamet last year, barring a wild DiCaprio surprise, he was seen as the frontrunner. Instead, Jordan was the upset winner and probably should have been taken much more seriously by awards watchers in the days leading up to the ceremony. Another important fact to note is that this is the second time an organization with AMPAS overlap has decided not to vote for Chalamet. Yes, Robert Aramayo gave a fantastic performance in “I Swear,” but BAFTA voters did not have to vote for the Brit. That’s a case where the nomination was the win. The point is, they didn’t want to vote for Chalamet despite “Marty” doing triple the box office of “I Swear” in the UK and earning more local critical acclaim. That’s the difference. That’s what pops. That’s what everyone should be paying attention to. In theory, we now have a scenario where Jordan could win. Moura could win. Or, all three of them could split the vote, and Chalamet could win, too. Who knows? Maybe the increasingly absent DiCaprio somehow pulls through. But Oscar telecast producers have to be overjoyed they only have one “lock” of an acting race to plan for because…
Amy Madigan may snatch that Supporting Actress Oscar
This is turning into a very unique, outlier campaign for Madigan. She is the only nomination for “Weapons,” a movie that was somehow snubbed by many branches, including the Makeup and Hairstyling branches of both AMPAS and BAFTA for their precursor shortlists and longlists, respectfully (considering the movie, it’s still wild). But it’s also clear that members love “Sinners” (all those nominations), and Mosaku took BAFTA over Madigan. Again, which organization is more similar to AMPAS? Then again, is this a fool me once situation? Three years ago, no one thought Jamie Lee Curtis would win the Oscar for “Everything Everywhere All At Once” after taking the SAG trophy. That was seen as her “win.” She was a lifer, and, considering her resume, as close as you can get to a reliable “working actor” as you could get. SAG members loved that about her. But she wasn’t winning the Oscar. Many thought she didn’t even deserve the nomination. Moreover, SAG has only gone in its own direction in this category once since 2009 (and that was a complicated Kate Winslet category fraud situation for “The Reader,” which we could narrate a five-episode docuseries on). In 2019, Emily Blunt won during a year where only three nominees in the category overlapped, and that didn’t include the eventual Oscar winner, Regina King, who was snubbed by her union peers. The only difference in 2026 is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas replacing SAG nominee Ariana Grande (another sign of the international influence in The Academy and lack of overlap with SAG). But, and it’s a big “but,” we have had a slew of AMPAS members tell us they are voting for Madigan. Does the overall “Sinners” love for Mosaku trump the domestic love for Madigan? Ponder.
Sean Penn probably has Supporting Actor locked up
It’s been nine years since the SAG winner for Supporting Male did not line up with the Oscar winner for Supporting Actor. That awards season, Idris Elba took the SAG for “Beasts of No Nation” and was snubbed for a nomination by The Academy. Could Sean Penn lose to “Sentimental Value’s” Stellan Skarsgard or “Sinners” star Delroy Lindo, who weren’t nominated for the Actor Award? It’s theoretically possible, but Penn won the BAFTA over Skarsgard, and this Actor Award win might have sealed the deal.
Everybody loves “KPop Demon Hunters”…everybody
Do you know how much the industry loves “KPop Demon Hunters”? It won every category it was nominated for at the Annie Awards. Every single one. “Zootopia 2” was critically acclaimed and is a $1.8 billion hit. And nada. Zilch. Nothing. Granted, the voters of the Annie Awards tend to sweepingly pick a movie or television program and vote for it in every category, but it’s still a bit much. On Saturday night, “KPop Demon Hunters” also won the animated Production Design honor at the 30th Art Directors Guild Awards. Over “Zootopia 2,” mind you, which, if you were to take a step back, is insanely more impressive in terms of its production design and detail in the worlds it’s creating. It also took the PGA Award on Saturday night. Listen, we’re happy people love the Netflix and Sony Pictures Animation smash, but are we really doing this? Are people really putting it on a pedestal like one of the great Pixar movies of the past 20 years? Really?
Is “The Perfect Stranger” in trouble?
It went very under the radar, but the PGA Award winner for Documentary Feature was…“My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay.” The only upset of the night, which would probably be jaw-dropping if everyone was paying attention to the Documentary category enough. This, after “Stranger,” the long presumed frontrunner, lost the BAFTA to “Mr. Nobody Against Putin.” An influential member of the Producer’s Branch believes the race is now between “Stranger” and Apple Studios’ “Come See Me In the Good Light.” And we certainly know some members who have voted for the latter. “Stranger” was a massive hit on Netflix. Is it too big to fail? A category to watch.
Lastly…invite Barry Diller to everything
Ripping David Ellison without saying his name. Ripping the PGA for previously giving the award he was introducing to Harvey Weinstein and Les Moonves. And giving an enthusiastic introduction to PGA Lifetime Achievement winner Jason Blume while still calling him out as a cheapskate to his face (and children in attendance!). Legendary behavior.
Final voting for the 98th Academy Awards ends on Wednesday at 5 PM PT. The 2026 Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 15, and broadcast live on ABC and Hulu beginning at 4 PM PT, 7 PM ET.
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