Perhaps the biggest surprise of the class of Adapted Screenplay contenders is how wonderfully diverse it is. In theory, this category could have four women nominees and four PoCs in a very competitive year. Of course, things can change dramatically this far out, but it’s potentially a silver lining to what is already the most unexpected and unnerving Oscar season in history.
Chloe Zhao’s adaptation of the nonfiction novel “Nomadland” and Kemp Powers reshaping of his play “One Night in Miami” are likely the safest bets so far (Note: Powers could be a rare double screenplay nominee if “Soul” can sneak into the Original Screenplay five). “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” adapted by Ruben Santiago-Hudson and “News of the World,” tackled by Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, are not far behind based on pedigree. And, in theory, “The Father,” adapted from Florian Zeller‘s play by Zeller and Christopher Hampton, could also be in the mix. But the big question is just how friendly the Writer’s Branch be to so many stage adaptations? Even in an unconventional season such as this its important to consider for anyone making predictions this far out. [Updated Nov. 18]
LIKELY CONTENDERS
“Nomadland,” Chloe Zhao
“One Night in Miami,” Kemp Powers
“Greyhound,” Tom Hanks
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ruben Santiago-Hudson
“Pieces of a Woman,” Kata Wéber
“The Midnight Sky,” Mark L. Smith
“Hillbilly Elegy,” Vanessa Taylor
“News of the World,” Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass
“The Father,” Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
“The United States vs. Billie Holliday,” Suzan-Lori Parks
“Emma,” Eleanor Catton
“First Cow,” Jon Raymond and Kelly Reichardt
POSSIBLE
“I’m Thinking of Ending Things,” Charlie Kaufman
“Shirley,” Sarah Gubbins
“French Exit,” Patrick deWitt
“Cherry,” Jessica Goldberg, Angela Russo-Otstot
“Personal History of David Copperfield,” Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci
“The Prom,” Chad Beguelin, Bob Martin
2021 Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
