ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“The Wild Robot”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
Almost there: “Moana 2,” “Chicken for Linda,” “Captain Avispa”
Lowdown: We’re quite concerned about whether “Memoir” can really make it. We think it’s safe but…
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Daniel Blumberg, “The Brutalist”
Kris Bowers, “The Wild Robot”
Volker Berlelmann, “Conclave”
Camille and Clément Ducol, “Emilia Pérez”
Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor, “Challengers”
Almost there: John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, “Wicked,” Robin Carolan, “Nosferatu,” Bryce Dessner, “Sing Sing,” Alberto Iglesias, “The Room Next Door”
Lowdown: “Wicked” and “Nosferatu” have a shot.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot”
“Like A Bird” from “Sing Sing”
“Mi Canto” from “Emilia Pérez”
Almost there: “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late,” “Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” “Tell Me It’s You” from “Mufasa: The Lion King”“Piece By Piece” from “Piece by Piece
Lowdown: Yes, Diane Warren is getting nominated again (thanks to H.E.R.). No, she shouldn’t. Like The Academy, we’ve given up trying to stop her from playing this game for songs no one will remember (or remember now). Oh and outside of “El Mal” and “Kiss the Sky,” this category could absolutely flip with three other nominees. The music branch has got to be fixed.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Peter Straughan, “Conclave”
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, “Nickel Boys”
James Mangold, Jay Cocks “A Complete Unknown”
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, “Sing Sing”
Almost there: Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega, “I’m Still Here,” Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox, “Wicked,” Chris Sanders, “The Wild Robot,” Robert Eggers, “Nosferatu,” Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts, “Dune: Part Two”
Lowdown: Watch out for “I’m Still Here.”
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, “The Brutalist”
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Coraline Faraget, “The Substance”
Justin Kurzel, “Challengers”
Almost there: Mike Leigh, “Hard Truths,” Tim Fehlbaum and Moritz S. Binder, “September 5,”
Payal Kapadia, “All We Imagine Is Light,” Mohammad Rasoulof, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Lowdown: The top four for this category are locked. We still expected Kurzel to make it, he campaigned more than anyone else from the “Challengers” team, but if “September 5” is generating some heat Fehlbaum and Binder may crack the field instead. Leigh, Kapadia, or Rasoulof would not be that shocking either. Still can’t believe Azazel Jacobs isn’t part of this conversation for “His Three Daughters.”
DIRECTING
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Perez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Coraline Fargeat, “The Substance”
Almost there: Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Two,” James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Lowdown: This is one category that may make or break the Best Picture race. If Mangold crashes, it means “A Complete Unknown” could absolutely win. If anyone but Faraget doesn’t make it, their film is in trouble to take Oscar’s top prize. Also, Villeneuve could still sneak in, but it seems like everyone forgets he was snubbed for the first “Dune” too.
MOTION PICTURE
“A Complete Unknown”
“A Real Pain”
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Perez”
“Sing Sing”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Almost there: “September 5,” “Nickel Boys,” “Challengers,” “I’m Still Here”
Lowdown: “September 5” surprised with the PGA, but got shafted by BAFTA. Do we really think it can crack the 10 without a nomination in any other category? That hasn’t happened since 1943. World War II was over a year from ending. Stats are meant to be broken, but…
The 97th Academy Awards nominations will be announced Thursday, January 23 at 5:30 AM PT/ 8:30 AM PT
