The 2018 Sundance Film Festival has pretty much come to an end, and for awards season who braved the snow and freezing temperatures, there is the now the haunting realization that there was very little Oscar gold to mine in Park City’s slopes this year. And, frankly, that’s a tad eyebrow raising and perhaps more a statement on the current state of “independent” film than anything else. It’s not like there was one standing ovation after another at the festival this year.
Outside of any film festival other than Venice and Tellurie, Sundance has become a staple at the Academy Awards with 13 world premieres earning Best Picture nominations this century. Of course, the Robert Redford institution first broke though Hollywood’s golden door with 2001’s “In the Bedroom” and again with 2006’s “Little Miss Sunshine,” but once the Academy expanded the field for 2009 consideration Sundance has pretty much been the long lead kickoff of the season. Granted, 2011 and 2013’s festivals featured no Best Picture nominees, but “An Education” and “Precious” (2009), “The Kids Are All Right” and “Winter’s Bone” (2010), “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (2012), “Boyhood” and “Whiplash” (2014), “Brooklyn” (2015), “Manchester by the Sea” (2016), “Call Me By Your Name” and “Get Out” (2017) all made their mark this decade (and premieres such as “The Big Sick,” “Mudbound” and ” The Birth of a Nation” were in the conversation as well). And that doesn’t even count the much longer list of Sundance Best Documentary winners and nominees that have dominated that particular category for over 20 years (and the one piece of silver lining for the Sundance powers that be is that particular run shouldn’t end anytime soon). Suffice to say, there won’t be a Best Picture nominee from Park City this time next year. In fact, the pickings are so slim we’re not even sure where to start.
Wash Westmoreland’s “Colette” features an impressive performance from Kiera Knightley and a solid turn from Dominic West, but it’s not Best Picture material. Bleecker Street acquired the film along with 30West and the New York based distributor has had success, particularly with SAG voters, on campaigns for “Trumbo” and “Captain Fantastic.” Knightley’s very good , but this is a fringe awards season performance at best. Moreover, she also has a lead turn coming this year in Fox Searchlight’s “The Aftermath” opposite Alexander Skarsgard which the mini-major expects to release sometime this fall. Place your bets on if either or neither make a mark.
Debra Granik’s “Leave No Trace” was also acquired by Bleecker, but earned mixed to positive notices at the festival with newcomer Thomasin McKenzie and star Ben Foster earning high praise for their work. That being said, is Foster an actual lead actor contender? Again, Bleecker has worked wonders with SAG to propel their contenders in the Oscar race, but Foster has been bypassed time and time again over his career by his peers (the one exception being his unexpected Spirit Award win for “Hell or High Water” last year). We’re justifiably skeptical at this point.
Toni Collette garnered almost universal raves for her performance in the horror flick “Hereditary,” but despite A24’s awards season mastery can they channel it into an actual nomination? (Could any distributor for that matter?)
“The Happy Prince” features a strong performance from Rupert Everett who also did a solid job with his directorial debut, but will anyone remember this film even two months from now? Neither Everett’s performance or the film will resonate enough to make a true impact.
Jason Reitman’s “Tully” is a nice little comeback for the filmmaker and screenwriter Diablo Cody. The April release features great work from both Charlize Theron and Mackenzie Davis, but it will likely be an afterthought come fall.
Gus Van Sant’s “Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot” is a nice turn to form for indie auteur and features yet another incredible performance by Joaquin Phoenix, but Amazon Studios also has “You Were Never Really Here” on its slate which garnered Phoenix the Cannes Jury prize for Best Actor last May. And we all know how much Phoenix likes to campaign let alone speak to the press (spoiler: he doesn’t). Jonah Hill also deserves some kudos for his work in “Don’t Worry,” but that may be hard to find with an early May release date.
Laura Dern would have been a fringe Oscar player for “The Tale,” but Jennifer Fox’s screenplay had a shot. Instead, it’s went to HBO Films where it will be eligible for Emmy consideration. Fox made the decision noting in a statement she wanted the film to have as wide an audience and impact as possible.
At this point films such as “Blindspotting” and “Sorry To Bother You” are likely just minor award season players that will make their mark with the Gotham and Independent Spirit Awards (it didn’t help that neither picture earned the massive hype they were expecting out of the festival). “Eighth Grade” is well crafted, but a small player that could be in the conversation for Original Screenplay (maybe) and year-end critics awards.
And…what else? Kelly Macdonald in “Puzzle”? Didn’t get a chance to see it, but sure. Can Maggie Gyllenhaal earn some attention for her work in “The Kindergarten Teacher”? Possibly? Chiwetel Ejiofor is phenomenal in “Come Sunday,” but Netflix is releasing that original film on the streaming service in April. Will anyone remember? Kathryn Hahn, Paul Giamatti and Kayli Carter are great in another Netflix title, “Private Life,” but even with a September release date we’re not convinced it’s an actual awards player.
The one real stand out player won’t be in the Best Picture race, but in the Foreign Language Film conversation. The Danish thriller, “The Guilty,” competing in the World Cinema Dramatic competition, was quickly acquired by Magnolia Pictures, who have FLF nominee “The Square” in contention to win this year. Sundance World Cinema films have rarely made a mark in the FLF race, but South Africa’s “The Wound,” notably made the shortlist this year.
Beyond that, it appears Oscar season 2019 will have to wait until Cannes to really hit its groove. Yikes.