The last few years have found the “industry” buzzing over when Netflix will capture its first Best Picture win. Considering the considerable effort the streamer has put into its film awards publicity and marketing campaigns over the past four years this shouldn’t be a surprise. So far, Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma,” Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman” and David Fincher’s “Mank,” among others, have earned the company massive critical acclaim and a bounty of statues. Oscar’s top prize, however, has remained elusive. And while Netflix may crack the Dolby Theater’s fake ceiling thanks to Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” or Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up,” there is another studio on the precipice of Hollywood history, Focus Features.
READ MORE: “Belfast” and “King Richard” stir Oscar season at Telluride
The Universal Studios sister company has had 10 Best Picture nominees over its almost 20-year history, but while its peers’ Searchlight Pictures, A24 Films, Neon, and the almost redacted Weinstein Company, succeeded, Focus has simply been the victim of some head-scratching bad luck. And, yes, you need some luck to win Best Picture. It’s become almost legend how if “The Pianist” had arrived on the scene just a few weeks earlier, it could have had enough momentum to win. A year later “Lost in Translation” had to face the last chapter of “Lord of the Rings,” a cultural phenomenon. “Brokeback Mountain” should have absolutely won, but at the time the Academy wasn’t as progressive as even its own members thought it was. “Atonement” had to face an almost unstoppable “No Country For Old Men” coronation. You could argue “Milk” should have also triumphed, but it faced the global success and crowd-pleasing euphoria of “Slumdog Millionaire.” “The Theory of Everything” and “The Darkest Hour” were a few years late for the Academy’s changing tastes. Spike Lee’s “BlacKkKlansman”? I mean, without question over that year’s disappointing winner. And “Promising Young Woman“? We may never know how close it came to taking the crown if the pandemic never occurred. Now, in something of a surprise, Focus has a gift. A movie that came completely under the radar. It surprised Academy members in Telluride and took the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast.”
In fact, you can argue Focus hasn’t had this sort of frontrunner since “Brokeback” 15 years ago (you could debate “Atonement,” but…you shouldn’t). And while that might scare some studios, it also can be a fantastic position to be in. You’re the film every member has heard about and needs to see. You then become one of the first films members see so they judge everything else against it. And once you have voters “loving” something, that’s beyond an enviable position to be in. Then again, frontrunners can fade. And a long line of them have with recent examples including “A Star is Born,” “La La Land,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “1917.” Of course, those were all big, loud films in one way or another. “Belfast” is on a much smaller and, for lack of a better word, humane scale. And, as we’re about to review, there is a slew of unseen films coming down the road that could bump “Belfast” out of the prime position. Or, like “Nomadland” last year, “The Shape of Water,” “Spotlight,” “The King’s Speech” or “The Artist,” it’ll keep pace during the long marathon of the season.
In fact, the Best Picture winner isn’t what anyone should be focusing on now anyway (although it goes without saying you do “win” that prize in phase one). The Academy has deemed there will be 10 guaranteed nominees this year and for the foreseeable future. Not seven, not eight, not nine, but 10. That hasn’t occurred since 2011. Over that decade since, the AMPAS membership has become more diverse and, specifically, much more international. Do the extra slots help a big potential blockbuster (even in a pandemic) such as “Dune” or “Eternals”? It’s hard to imagine it won’t. But it should also help more non-English language films get into the big race. Keep that in mind when formulating your predictions in the months ahead.
As we release the first Official Contender Countdown for the 2022 Oscar season, please note we’re holding off from a numeric ranking for now. There’s simply too much left to see, but something tells us you’ll figure it all out anyway.
September 24, 2021
IF THERE ARE LOCKS, THESE ARE CLOSE TO LOCKS
“Belfast”
Might have already survived a small backlash. If that’s what that was.
“The Power of the Dog”
Could this be Netflix’s first Best Picture winner? Or is it just a marathon to Jane Campion‘s second Academy Award for Directing?
“Spencer”
Feels borderline for a nod, but there is an absolute passion for this one. That’s really all you need.
“Dune”
The Academy hasn’t seen it yet, but, sure.
“The French Dispatch”
Don’t discount Wes Anderson’s fanbase. Box office will matter though.
NEXT UP
“Nightmare Alley”
Hard for a remake to win Best Picture, but not so hard for it to land a nomination.
“Parallel Mothers”
Might be Almodovar’s best shot at a Best Picture nod in over a decade.
“Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson aka Licorice Pizza”
Doesn’t hurt that it takes place in LA, I guess. At this point, we’re going with reputation and goodwill from “Phantom Thread” awards-season success.
“The Hand of God”
Paolo Sorrentino‘s coming-of-age drama may have seven endings, but you want to hug them all.
“C’Mon C’Mon”
Another Mike Mills gem that will speak to the Academy’s bi-coastal membership. Think “Marriage Story” without the yelling and in black and white.
“Tragedy of Macbeth”
Technically, like PTA, it should also be in the still to screen section but…we’ll know soon enough.
DESERVES VOTERS ATTENTION
“In the Heights”
Honestly, WB should seriously look at revisiting this one’s chances. Time to hear what members and not business media really think about it.
“Worst Person in the World”
If NEON can turn it into any semblance of a “must-see”, they could have something.
“King Richard”
The performances and story is fantastic, but is it too “flat” for Academy members? Even “The Blind Side” was more “cinematic.”
“CODA”
A crowdpleaser, but that August release feels like it was a mistake.
“Flee”
It deserves Documentary, Animated, International, and a Best Picture nomination. Whether that’s too much of a stretch remains to be seen.
STILL TO SCREEN
“House of Gucci”
Will Lady Gaga campaign for this one? She barely promoted “Chromatica”!
“West Side Story”
If Steven Spielberg and screenwriter Tony Kushner haven’t solved the source material’s now dated and problematic takes..well, that’s gonna be interesting.
“Don’t Look Up”
Buzz is the flick is mostly a farcical comedy which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Plus, Adam McKay somehow directed “Vice” to a Best Picture nod. So, it’s in the mix till it potentially isn’t.
“Being the Ricardos”
We’re still stinging from Nicole Kidman’s creative choices for “Nine Perfect Strangers.” Could this be a return to form?
“The Tender Bar”
A celebrated novel, grounded (hopefully) direction from George Clooney, a William Monahan adaption, and a London Film Festival world premiere. Why not?
“A Journal for Jordan”
Major TBD.
“Eternals”
Chloe Zhao is your reigning winner. You have to respect her talents enough to consider it for now.
DARKHORSE PLAYERS
“Respect”
Probably more about landing craft nods and getting Jennifer Hudson in the final five more than anything else at this point.
“Cyrano”
A film full of high highs and low lows. And, honestly, will MGM’s attention be elsewhere?
“The Green Knight”
Don’t discount the potential passion for David Lowery’s reimagined epic. Especially after a long-delayed and now imminent UK release.
“The Humans”
Fantastic performances, but does it overcome its stage origins enough to justify a nod?
“The Last Duel”
Is it just a Jodie Comer play? Can two Ridley Scott films make the cut?
“The Lost Daughter”
We’re fans but the mom pushback at Telluride was significant.
“A Quiet Place Pt. II”
I mean, the idea of expanding to 10 Best Picture nominees was to get more popular fare in, right?