This year’s Best Picture race is all about the 10. There won’t be seven, eight or nine nominees this year. No, the Academy has guaranteed that there will be 10 selections for the first time since 2011. What that means in terms of recognizable trends remains to be seen, but the increasingly international membership means there could be at least two non-English language players announced on February 8. Then again, maybe not.
The other major aspect of the race involves time. This year, instead of occurring immediately after the New Year’s Holiday, voting won’t begin until January 27 and end on February 1. That’s three weeks later than most pre-pandemic schedules. That means the race has a long way to go.
What we do know is that the two films that rocked the fall film festivals the most were Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast,” which earned cheers at Telluride and won the 2021 TIFF People’s Choice award, and Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” which came in third in TIFF voting and still has a stellar 89 on Metacritic. Focus Features and Netflix releases respectfully, both films are as close to locks (and potential winners) as you can get for Best Picture nominees at this point in the race.
Beyond that, Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” and Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard” have expertly campaigned their way to a nomination. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” is a safe pick as is Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story.” After that things get interesting. Could Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Lost Daughter” crack the 10? Will Guillermo del Toro go back to back with “Nightmare Alley”? Can Adam McKay escape negative reviews and two rounds of backlash with “Don’t Look Up”? Can LAFCA and NYFCC winner “Drive My Car” sneak in without any substantive media campaign? Could AppleTV+ get their first Best Pic nod with “CODA”? Is the last Daniel Craig Bond flick, “No Time To Die,” which surprisingly led the shortlists, the surprise 10th nominee? We’ll find out Feb. 8. [Updated Jan 2]
BEST PICTURE
The Current 10
“Belfast”
“The Power of the Dog”
“West Side Story”
“Licorice Pizza”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“CODA”
“The Lost Daughter”
“Nightmare Alley”
“No Time to Die”
In the Mix
“Drive My Car”
“Don’t Look Up”
“tick, tick…BOOM!”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“Parallel Mothers”
“The Last Duel”
“Being The Ricardos”
“The French Dispatch”
“Spider-Man: No Way Home”
In Another Timeline
“The Worst Person in the World”
2022 Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
International Film