Here’s the thing. When considering the Emmy nomination races this year, there are a lot of insanely competitive categories we already know of. Limited Series is a wealth of riches. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy, Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama and Outstanding Lead Actress in a Mini-Series or Movie are so packed they will likely provide a ton of our snubs and surprises candidates. That being said, it all really comes down to this: Will the Television Academy embrace “Fleabag” or not?
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The second season of Amazon and BBC’s Phoebe Waller-Bridge series has a stunning 96 grade on Metacritic and been a buzzworthy title around Hollywood (and especially for those who work outside of television). But it also feels like the sort of smaller, idiosyncratic series that the broader membership might ignore. “When They See Us”? Don’t worry about it, Ava DuVernay and Netflix publicized the show to the hilt during its short window between its debut and voting. “Pose”? The landmark drama series should benefit from less competition in its overall categories. “Fleabag”? We’re predicting the best case scenario, but we’re certainly nervous about its chances.
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Keeping that in mind, here are some 2019 Primetime Emmy nomination predictions for you to weed through. (Oh, and, yes, acting categories have strange rules that allow up to seven and even eight nominations due to ties or whatever, but I’m sticking to the minimum of six for this exercise).
Outstanding Comedy Series
“Barry”
“Black-ish”
“Fleabag”
“GLOW”
“The Kominsky Method”
“Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Veep”
On the cusp: “The Good Place,” “Dead to Me,” “Schitt’s Creek”
You in danger gurl: If “Fleabag” makes it then either “The Good Place” or “GLOW” are out. Considering the disappointment over the last season of the NBC comedy we’re placing our bets Netflix finds a way for “GLOW” to make the cut. It’s gonna be close though.
Outstanding Drama Series
“Bodyguard”
“Better Call Saul”
“Game of Thrones”
“Killing Eve”
“Ozark”
“Pose”
“This Is Us”
On the cusp: “Succession,” “The Good Fight”
You in danger gurl: Have we overestimated the love for “Pose” and “Bodyguard”? Are Emmy voters still enthralled with “This Is Us”? Ponder.
Outstanding Variety Talk Show Series
“The Daily Show with Trevor Noah”
“Full Frontal with Samantha Bee”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live”
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
“Late Show with Stephen Colbert”
“Late Late Show with James Corden”
On the cusp: “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” “Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj”
You in danger gurl: Maybe Rihanna‘s bit will put Meyers over the top next year.
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
“At Home With Amy Sedaris”
“Documentary Now”
“Drunk History”
“Saturday Night Live”
“Who Is America”
“Tracey Ullman Show”
On the cusp: “I Think You Should Leave,” “I Love You, America”
You in danger gurl: These are likely your six nominees this time around, but watch out for cult hit “I Think You” after it returns for a second season next Emmy season.
Outstanding Limited Series
“Chernobyl”
“Escape at Dannemora”
“Fosse/Verdon”
“Sharp Objects”
“When They See Us”
On the cusp: “True Detective,” “The Act,” “A Very English Scandal”
You in danger gurl: As noted, this is an insanely competitive category and if I were anyone involved with “Fosse/Verdon” I’d be very, very nervous.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
“The Amazing Race”
“The Masked Singer”
“Project Runway”
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
“Top Chef”
“The Voice”
On the cusp: “American Ninja Warrior”
You in danger, gurl: We’re looking at you, “Project Runway.” Ratings were down after the move to Bravo and if voters missed former hosts, Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, well, you might miss out instead of “Ninja Warrior.”
Note: If “The Masked Singer” doesn’t earn a nod, FOX executives will be pulling their hair out. The newly indie network has the Emmys this year, it rotates between the four broadcast networks, and “Singer” is their only shot at having one of their own nominated shows to push during the telecast.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
Jim Carrey, “Kidding”
Don Cheadle, “Black Monday”
Ted Danson, “The Good Place”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
On the cusp: William H. Macey, “Shameless,” Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”
You in danger gurl: We’re still not sure that enough members have watched “Kidding,” but beyond Carey, this category seems pretty solid.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Tracee Ellis Ross, “Black-ish”
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
Natasha Lyonne, “Russian doll”
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag”
On the cusp: Pamela Adlon, “Better Things,” Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me,” Lily Tomlin, “Grace & Frankie,” Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”
You in danger gurl: Ellis Ross has already been nominated three times previously, but is this year her luck runs out? You can also ask the same question about Janney. As for snubs, Lyonne looms as a potential eyebrow raiser.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Kit Harrington, “Game of Thrones”
Richard Madden, “Bodyguard”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Billy Porter, “Pose”
On the cusp: Brian Cox, “Succession,” Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us”
You in danger gurl: Maybe Madden gets snubbed? Maybe? This is such a weak category this year that Cox could sneak in, but these six seems pretty secure.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones”
Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
Christine Baranski, “The Good Fight”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Julia Roberts, “Homecoming”
On the cusp: Mandy Moore, “This Is Us,” Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
You in danger gurl: We’re not 100% convinced Comer will make the cut, but with shaky competition and Clarke the only real “Thrones” player she’s in for now.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Mini-Series or Movie
Mahershala Ali, “True Detective”
Benicio Del Toro, “Escape at Dannemora”
Hugh Grant, “A Very English Scandal”
Jared Harris, “Chernobyl”
Sam Rockwell, “Fosse/Verdon”
On the cusp: Jharrel Jerome, “When They See Us,” Ian McShane, “Deadwood Movie”
You in danger gurl: Has it been too long since “Dannemora” aired Benicio? Did they love Michelle more than you Sam? Watch out fellas because Jharrel and Ian are waiting in the wings.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Mini-Series or Movie
Amy Adams, “Sharp Objects”
Patricia Arquette, “Escape at Dannemora”
Joey King, “The Act”
Julianna Margulies, “The Hot Zone”
Emma Stone, “Maniac”
Michelle Williams, “Fosse/Verdon”
On the cusp: Connie Britton, “Dirty John,” Marisa Tomei,” Live in Front of a Studio Audience,” Nicey Nash, “When They See Us”
You in danger gurl: Margulies is probably on the, um, hot seat here. She’s an Emmy favorite and if she doesn’t sneak in the final slot is Britton’s to lose.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method”
Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Tony Hale, “Veep”
Tony Shalhoub, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Kenan Thompson, “Saturday Night Live”
Timothy Simmons, “Veep”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
On the cusp: Anthony Carrigan, “Barry,” Matt Walsh, “Veep”
You in danger gurl: We’re going with our gut here picking Simmons over Walsh, but both of them could easily get nominated, or Walsh could earn his third nomination.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Olivia Colman, “Fleabag”
Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
Betty Gilpin, “GLOW”
Marin Hinkle, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
On the cusp: Laurie Metcalf, “The Connors,” Leslie Jones, “Saturday Night Live,” Megan Mullally, “Will & Grace”
You in danger gurl: The Television Academy loves “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and Hinkle campaigned like a trooper, but is that enough to supplant Emmy favorites Metcalf and Mullally?
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”
Bobby Carnevale, “Homecoming”
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, “Game of Thrones”
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul”
On the cusp: Michael Kelly, “House of Cards,” Peter Mullan, “Ozark”
You in danger gurl: Everyone who isn’t Dinklage or Banks pretty much as a shot at being snubbed. The good news is that the contenders on the outside looking in are not that formidable.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Gwendoline Christie, “Game of Thrones”
Julia Garner, “Ozark”
Lena Headley, “Game of Thrones”
Maise Williams, “Game of Thrones”
Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”
Sophie Turner, “Game of Thrones”
On the cusp: Indya Moore,” “Pose,” Susan Kelechi Watson, “This Is Us,” Fiona Shaw, “Killing Eve”
You in danger gurl: Any actress not in “Game of Thrones”? Honestly, four nominees from the HBO phenomenon would be shocking, but it’s not like the competition are White Walkers or anything.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
George Clooney, “Catch-22”
Paul Dano, “Escape at Dannemora”
Michael Kenneth Williams, “When They See Us”
John Leguizamo, “When They See Us”
Stellan Skarsgard, “Chernobyl”
Ben Whishaw, “A Very English Scandal”
On the cusp: Jovan Adepo, “When They See Us,” Eric Lange, “Escape at Dannemora,” Calum Worthy, “The Act”
You in danger gurl: Anyone but Whishaw, Kenneth Williams and Dano are on very shaky ground. It’s a battle of the bigger names vs. the heralded performances by lesser-known actors.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Patricia Arquette, “The Act”
Patricia Clarkson, “Sharp Objects”
Carmen Ejogo, “True Detective”
Vera Farminga, “When They See Us”
Sally Field, “Maniac”
Emily Watson, “Chernobyl”
On the cusp: Eliza Scanlen, “Sharp Objects,” Sissy Spacek, “Castle Rock,” Robin Weigert, “Deadwood Movie”
You in danger gurl: Farminga is admittedly borderline and will likely get swept in by a “When They” nomination wave. Field is starring in a mini-series that many in the industry were simply not fans of. If there’s a category destined for some surprises, it’s this one.
The 71st Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be announced Tuesday, July 16 at a civilized 11:30 AM ET 8:30 AM PT.
The 2019 Primetime Emmy Awards will be handed out on Sunday, September 15 live on FOX.