If you use the May 1 release date as the start of the summer, we are now halfway through the most lucrative box office period of the year. There have been some surprises, including the underperformance of “Thunderbolts*,” “Ellio,” and “Ballerina” and the overperformance of “Final Destination: Bloodlines” and, maybe, “Materialists,” but generally, everything has played out somewhat as expected. Keeping that in mind, some major question marks for the next two months as the bigger guns arrive…
*Will “Superman” Surprise?
James Gunn is going in a completely different direction than Zack Snyder for his version of the DC Cinematic Universe, and “Superman” is the first real test of whether it will fly or not. Reactions from an embargoed screening last week suggest the movie is fun and “silly,” but the previews have left many worried that it’s too broad, too cartoony, and, perhaps, a wee bit cheesy looking. Domestic tracking is also all over the place with estimates from $90-150 million opening weekend in the U.S. That’s likely because several big releases beforehand, such as “F1” and “Jurassic World: Rebirth,” are distracting the marketplace (this is not uncommon). The reported production budget is around $225 million. If “Superman” hits $500+ global or comes anywhere close to $600 million, Warner Bros. will spin it as a big win. And if it can make more than the $670 million Snyder’s “Man of Steel” took in 2013? They can say they’ve got a smash. Anything less than $500 million? Murkier, to say the least.
*Will international have to save ‘Jurassic World: Rebirth”?
Just three years ago, barely out of the pandemic, “Jurassic World: Dominion,” a movie we can’t remember almost anything about, took in $1.004 billion worldwide. It was the third straight “Jurassic World” movie to hit that figure. That being said, two-thirds of that gross was from overseas, and considering U.S. tracking for “Rebirth,” which has effectively replaced Chris Pratt with Scarlett Johansson in the topliner seat, international is going to have to outperform domestic by a substantial amount to come close to that figure this time around. The good news is that this installment reportedly cost a relatively frugal $180 million. If it can gross $700-800 million worldwide, Universal Studios will be very happy.
*’How big a hit does “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” need to be?
The buzz around Marvel Studios’ third release this year, “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” is perhaps not as euphoric as you might hope. Lots of “it’s good, not great” from those in the know. We genuinely hope those voices are wrong. Considering that “Brave New World” essentially broke even and the well-regarded “Thunderbolts*” lost money in the short term, that’s a lot of pressure for “First Steps” to be a massive hit. Long-term tracking is supposedly higher than “Superman,” but we’re still just under a month out. And, we can’t believe we’re typing this, but if “Fantastic Four” disappoints, is Kevin Feige in…trouble? Will his job hang on “Avengers: Doomsday”? Boy, the world is changing quickly, isn’t it?
*Is “Weapons” another New Line savior?
Three movies blew the roof off CinemaCon’s captive audience this past April: an extended preview for the aforementioned “Final Destination,” Paramount’s trailer for “The Naked Gun” reboot (more on that in a minute), and the announcement and first footage of Zach Cregger’s “Weapons.” Featuring a prestige cast of Julia Garner, Josh Brolin, Benedict Wong, Alden Ehrenreich, and Amy Madigan, the movie was originally scheduled for a January 2026 opening. When Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” decided to pivot to fall, Warner Bros. moved the already completed picture (Cregger works fast) to its former August 8 date. The full trailer is already out (in front of “F1,” no less) and it plays. The script and Cregger’s previous film, “Barbarian,” originally had Pedro Pascal and Renate Reinsve wanting to star before other commitments made them drop out. Warner Bros. thinks it’s going to be a thing. We believe them.
*Are the “Smurfs” lucky?
Paramount Pictures may have gotten blessed by Lucky Smurf (yes, he exists). By the time the studio’s new animated “Smurfs” movie arrives on July 18, not only will “How To Train Your Dragon” be near the end of its run, but Pixar’s “Elio,” a major theatrical disappointment, may barely be in theaters. That gives “Smurfs” a two-week window with kids and family audiences before “The Bad Guys 2” arrives. Moreover, that DreamWorks Animation sequel primarily plays with young boys, so “Smurfs” might be four-quadrant enough to survive the competition. The next kid-friendly movie doesn’t arrive until Sept. 26 when “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” tries to do its thing. “Freakier Friday” will provide some competition on August 8, but overall, that’s a very long window. Moreover, the three previous films, released by Sony Pictures, all did a killing overseas between 2011 and 2017. Even at an $110 million production budget, this reboot may end up being one of Paramount’s most lucrative films of the year. Speaking of potential revenue players…
