We are in the midst of a very short Oscars voting period for Academy members. A 5-day window, which is almost at an end. Whether voters are still contemplating what they’re going to vote for, or submitted their ballots in the first 24 hours or so, is always a question that neither the Academy nor, to be quite honest, any of its contenders, wants to answer. Many would love to believe that some people wait till the exact end, potentially favoring a chance to influence their votes based on a screening, an interview they might never read, or perhaps even a post on social media. Yes, dreams die hard.
Taking all that into account, there are several givens that we already know with this year’s Best Picture race. “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “Sentimental Valuae,” “Frankenstein,” and “Marty Supreme” are pretty much locks for a nomination. The rest of the field is somewhat up in the air. In fact, while there are always a few slots that have major question marks, it’s rarely this open-ended. Sure, last year “Nickel Boys” cracked the 10 instead of “A Real Pain,” but this feels different. There are, in fact, several different scenarios on how this all could play out. Some of which are horrifying to awards consultants and executives who’ve been working on this since August, and others that, in hindsight, will make a lot of sense once the 10 is revealed.
READ MORE: “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet,” and “Sinners” Lead 2026 BAFTA Awards Longlists
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Keeping that in mind, let’s look at some intriguing scenarios, including two that would see a 51-year-old streak for multiple nominees for one studio in a year come to an end.
The Neon Makes History Scenario
Right now, they have five films that could potentially get nominated for Best Picture. “It Was Just An Accident,” “Sentimental Value,” “The Secret Agent,” “No Other Choice,” and “Sirat.” Many expect that “Sentimental,” as well as “The Secret Agent,” will make at least two BP nominations for the indie distributor. Moreover, “Sirat” had an incredible five mentions on the Oscar short list, which was not only unexpected but may break historical precedent if it doesn’t make the cut (the same for another film further in this commentary). In theory, maybe “Secret Agent” gets snubbed. Maybe Palme d’Or winner “Accident” pops in for “Secret Agent” instead. But, in this potential scenario, not only do “Sentimental” and “Secret Agent” make it, but “Sirat” sneaks in as well. Three BP nominees. A historic achievement that hasn’t occurred since Gerald Ford was president. That would leave “Accident,” which has mostly been ignored by Oscar and BAFTA precursors, as well as guild honors, on the outside looking in. As for “No Other Choice,” its best hope might be landing NEON five International Film nominees in a massively competitive year. Neon won Best Picture last year with “Anora” after many thought it had faded early in the season. They always have a shot to surprise.
The Warner Bros Makes History Scenario
The Warner Brothers scenario is the easiest. “One Battle,” “Sinners,” and yes, “Weapons,” all make the top 10. “Weapons” surprised by getting a PGA nomination, and while the PGA nominations historically rarely line up, they often come pretty damn close. “Weapons” is going to get an actress nomination for Amy Madigan for Supporting Actress. It has at least Acting Branch support. On the flip side, it was snubbed for the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlists, a nomination many expected by not only the Oscars, but also BAFTA. It landed one Oscar shortlist mention for Casting and three for the BAFTA in Supporting Actress, Editing, and Original Screenplay. But if a substantial number of producers and actors in the Academy love it just enough, in theory, it could make the top 10. And that would give WB three nominees for the first time since 1975.
The Expected Blockbusters Make It Scenario
The blockbusters you’re all expecting scenario is quite straightforward. This would include“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” giving the James Cameron franchise its third best picture nominee after “Avatar” and “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which were both nominated. Moreover, “Wicked for Good” would give Universal back-to-back“Wicked” nominations after the first chapter was nominated last year. The critical reception of both hits was less than that of the previous installments in the franchises. That being said, there has been some support in the Oscar shortlists and across the guilds for both films. Of course, both were snubbed by the PGA, and “Wicked for Good” only earned one SAG, er, Actor Award nomination for Ariana Grande in Supporting Actress. That being said, it would not be that shocking if one or both made it.
The Quiet Blockbuster Makes It Scenario
The surprise blockbuster entry would be the last-minute inclusion of stealth player, “F1: The movie.” “F1” was a massive hit worldwide, taking in over $631 million at the global box office, and earned very favorable reviews. Outside of an initial FYC event in October, Apple Studios was somewhat quiet with its campaign. That was mostly because the star of the film and one of its producers, Brad Pitt, did not seem that interested in pursuing an acting nomination or doing the legwork for a Best Picture nod (to be fair, he has three noms in this category and won for “12 Years A Slave”). Over the last month, though, Apple has spent on outdoor ads, some online ads, worked the below-the-line categories, and is clearly hoping that its PGA nomination translates to a best picture nod. It was also mentioned five times on the Oscar shortlists and four times on the BAFTA longlist.
The Focus Features Gets Two Nominees Scenario
Another easy scenario that seems more likely than not, see Focus Features not just getting a nomination for “Hamnet,” which is a given, but Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia.” That November release appears to have more support in the industry and potentially in the Academy than many might have suspected. While it only landed two mentions on the Oscar shortlist, it made 12 BAFTA longlist categories, a PGA Award nomination, and two Actor Awards nominations (an Ensemble nom was always a reach). That’s broad support. If it makes it, it would be Yorgos’ third Best Picture nominee after “The Favourite” and “Poor Things.”
Here’s your long-awaited and updated Contender Countdown.
January 15
1 “One Battle After Another”
It will lead all films in nominations. The big question is whether it gets two Supporting Actor nods or just one.
2 “Hamnet”
Don’t call it a comeback, but Chloe Zhao‘s drama is safe in a slew of categories and could challenge “Another” for the win with second-place votes. Maybe.
3 “Sinners”
Will likely earn more nominations than “Hamnet,” but we think Ryan Coolger’s best shot at an Oscar statue may be Original Screenplay.
4 “Marty Supreme”
In another year, “Marty” might be battling “Another” for the top prize. It still might. It might also just get Timothee Chalamet an Oscar statue instead.
5 “Sentimental Value”
All the nominations are the win. And maybe Stellan Skarsgard taking Supporting Actor, too.
6 “Frankenstein”
Guillermo del Toro does it again. The Clint Eastwood of this Academy Awards era.
7 “Train Dreams”
Not a lock, but should be safe. Big emphasis on “should.”
8 “The Secret Agent”
International voters should push this one over the top, pt. 1.
9 “Bugonia”
(Surprisingly), International voters should push this one over the top, pt. 2
10 “F1”
Shortlists and longlists and PGA don’t lie, do they? Another Best Picture nomination for Jerry Bruckheimer.
11 “Wicked For Good”
The campaign feels late. Needed to push more in December.
12 “Sirat”
It pains us to place our no. 1 of the year out of the top 10, but it was always a reach. An International Film nomination (not a given) would have been a surprise after Cannes. Almost landing a Best Picture one is as close to a win as you can get.
13 “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
The box office was always the win for Disney and Cameron. Everything else is gravy.
14 “It Was Just An Accident”
Disheartening as Jafar Panahi’s voice is needed on the world stage now more than ever. It hurts, but truth be told, some blame goes to major critics groups for not spreading the love in their International Film and Best Director honors. “Accident” needed that attention. We’re not convinced enough members watched it.
15 “Weapons”
I mean, Madigan might win Supporting Actress, and likely WGA Award nominee Zach Creeger barely campaigned. WB ain’t mad at it.
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