Achievement in costume design
“Babylon”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Corsage”
“Elvis”
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Almost there: “TAR,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “The Fablemans,” “Amsterdam”
Lowdown: “Corsage” is the question mark although “Babylon” shouldn’t even be in the conversation. Those costumes were weak.
Achievement in directing
Edward Berger, “All Quiet on the Western Front”
The Daniels, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Todd Field, “TAR”
Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Steven Spielberg, “The Fablemans”
Almost there: S.S.Rajamouli, “RRR,” James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Baz Luhrmann, “Elvis,” Park Chan Wook, “Decision to Leave”
Lowdown: There will be at least one non-English-speaking international filmmaker selected. The question is whether it’s Rajamouli, Berger, or, Chan Wook.
Documentary Feature
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“Fire of Love”
“Navalny”
“Moonage Dream”
Almost there: “Descendant,” “Retrograde”
Lowdown: This branch always throws a curveball or two. If you can predict at least four of them, that’s pretty damn good.
International Film
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Close”
“Decision to Leave”
“Argentina, 1985”
“EO”
Almost there: “Return to Seoul,” “The Quiet Girl,” “Bardo”
Lowdown: “Argentina 1985” is on the bubble. “Return to Seoul” or “The Quiet Girl” could easily take the fifth slot.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original Song)
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”
“Carolina” from “Where the Crawdads Sing”
Almost there: “Good Afternoon” from “Spirited,” “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “New Body Rhumba” from “White Noise”
Lowdown: Saying this now, even if she lands the nomination, Rihanna made a huge mistake by not campaigning enough for or performing “Lift Me Up” in phase one. All the momentum has shifted to “Naatu Naatu.”
Achievement in Visual Effects
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Almost there: “Thirteen Lives,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Lowdown: I mean, after its record-smashing VES nomination haul it’s obvious “The Way of Water” is taking this.
Adapted screenplay
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Living”
“She Said”
“The Whale”
“Women Talking”
Almost there: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Top Gun: Maverick”
Lowdown: There are few award-worthy contenders in play for this category. “Glass Onion” and “Women Talking” are the only real locks.
Original screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
“The Fablemans”
“TAR”
“Triangle of Sadness”
Almost there: “Aftersun,” “Decision to Leave”
Lowdown: We’re going with “Triangle of Sadness” in the fifth slot but its candidacy is tenuous at best.
Best Picture
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
“The Fablemans”
“TAR”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Triangle of Sadness”
Almost there: “Babylon,” “Living,” “RRR,” “The Whale,” “The Woman King”
Lowdown: My gut says the year of the sequels prevails. And if “The Whale” or “Babylon” makes it? Sigh.
The 95th Oscar nominations will be announced bright and early around 5:30 AM PT on Tuesday, January 24.