Best Original Screenplay Oscars 2023 Predictions & Contenders

There are a number of categories where a worthy nominee won’t make the cut this Oscar season, but this Original Screenplay is worth keeping an eye on. Currently, there are at least three “likely” nominees. Martin McDonagh, who has been nominated twice previously in this category, is a pretty safe bet for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” as are Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner for the former’s autobiographical drama, “The Fabelemans.” Todd Field, who previously earned two Adapted Screenplay nominations, is also on solid ground for the critically acclaimed “TAR.” The last two spots? Let us ponder.

READ MORE: Cate Blanchett says “TAR” is about the “corruptive nature of power” [Interview]

It should be noted that the past four Academy Awards ceremonies have had at least one non-English language screenplay recognized in this category (“Roma,” “Parasite,” “Minari,” and “The Worst Person in the World”). That’s absolutely a trend worth paying attention to as The Academy membership’s global membership has increased over the past decade. It’s also good news for Lukas Dhont and Angelo Tijssens‘ script for “Close” and Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook’s screenplay for “Decision to Leave.” Two Cannes awards winners hoping to earn more than International Film nods. Ruben Östlund’s English-language “Triangle of Sadness,” the Palme d’Or winner, also has a shot (and solid box office will certainly help).

The rest of the field includes The Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” Damien Chazelle’s still unseen “Babylon,” James Gray’s “Armageddon Time,” the four credited writers for “Elvis” (granted, dicey), and Dana Steven’s tome for “The Woman King.” And perhaps Jordan Peele’s deserving “NOPE” can make some noise. Or maybe a surprise contender will emerge. But there will definitely be a snub or two for this category when the nominations are revealed on Jan. 24. [Posted Oct. 12]

*Not screened at publication

Likely

“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“The Fablemans”
“TAR”

Almost There

“Babylon”*
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
“Decision to Leave”
“The Woman King”
“Elvis”
“Armageddon Time”

Longshots

“Close”
“The Menu”
“Empire of Light”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“NOPE”
“Till”
“Aftersun”
“Broker”
“Bardo”
“Nanny”

Other categories

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor