The media departing Venice for Toronto are hyping up Dwayne Johnson’s performance in “The Smashing Machine” and Amanda Seyfried in “The Testament of Ann Lee” (which still needs a distributor), but as we wrote about in our newsletter The Breakdown (sign up), Telluride easily beat Venice this year when it comes to the Oscar race. Sorry, when Oprah is telling Joachim Trier she cried after seeing his drama contender “Sentimental Value,” that means more than any 8 to 15 minute standing ovation bulls**t. The mountains weren’t filled with music this past weekend, but with influential AMPAS voters seeing everyone and everything.
I don’t make the rules, it is what it is.
While “Value” had a genuinely great four days, the biggest winner of the festival was Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet.” The tearjerker earned massive accolades following its world premiere and is a genuine player, and by the time we get to the end of September, it could be one of three potential frontrunners to win it all (can you guess the other two?). Almost every category for this Focus Features release is on the table outside of Visual Effects, including Best Actress for Jesse Buckley, Best Actor, or Best Supporting Actor (take your pick) for Paul Mescal. Zhao is a shoe-in for a director nomination and potentially an adapted screenplay nomination. Max Richter’s Original Score, Lukasz Zal’s Cinematography, Fiona Crombie’s Production Design, Malgosia Turzanska‘s Costumes, Editing, Casting, Hair and Makeup, and potentially, if the movie is loved enough, a Supporting Actress play for Emily Watson, but that might be a reach.
Despite a catalogue of some of the best films of this century, Focus somehow has still not won Best Picture. They thought “Belfast” had a chance, but Zhao’s “don’t call it a comeback because she never left,” tearjerker could be the one. And, no, we’re not jinxing it because it’s true.
Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia,” which made the quick trip from Venice, also has a chance at a Best Picture nomination, but its best play is probably Emma Stone for Best Actress. It’s the best performance in the movie, and it’s the one that’s likely to pop the most. Jesse Plemons has a shot for a lead actor nod as well, but he’s been looked over by the Academy before, and this year’s Best Actor Race appears to be increasingly competitive. Lanthimos could potentially earn a nomination in an expected to be less competitive than usual Adapted Screenplay category, but making the Director five might be difficult. The Focus Features release is also in play for Cinematography (Robbie Ryan), Original Score (Jerskin Fendrix), and Costumes (Jennifer Johnson) nominations, depending.
A major Netflix release also doing double festival duty, Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly” is probably a fringe Best Picture player (more on that in a minute). Its best chance at a nomination is Billy Crudup, who is phenomenal as an old friend of the title character (George Clooney) who never had the lucky break Kelly did back in the day. It’s a performance that actors are going to adore, because so many will see themselves or their friends who never made it. The bigger question is, will they see themselves in Clooney’s character, who is a big ego mega star and is a “legend,” but is sort of hard to relate to unless you’re one of those other big ego megastars yourself (I mean, most are AMPAS members). As a bonus, Adam Sandler gives a very good performance as Kelly’s manager. Depending on how competitive the field is, he could be a legit nominee. And, hey, we’re Clooney fans, I mean, who isn’t? That being said, his character’s career montage at the end of the movie is a fourth-wall-breaking montage of his greatest roles (although “Gravity” was missing). The Best Actor field is too competitive this year to escape that. He’ll likely get cursory, early love, but that’s likely it.
Keep in mind, however, “Kelly” is one of four to five borderline Best Picture players that are probably battling it out for two to three slots out of the final 10. Netflix has proved in the past that it can get movies in that are divisive, by almost willing them to nominations. Examples include last year’s “Emilia Prerez,” as well as “Mank,” and “Maestro,” but it’s really going to depend on how the industry embraces the film. Comparatively, “The Studio” may have given many Emmy voters PTSD, but they still rewarded it with a ton of nominations this summer, including a massive haul from the actors voting in the acting categories. Will SAG and AMPAS acting branch also embrace “Jay Kelly” the same way? Ponder, pt. 1.
In terms of other films that debuted at the festival, Jeremy Allen White should be a Best Actor nominee for his performance as The Boss in “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.” Despite just solid reviews, the movie also has a shot at a Best Picture nod, especially if it’s a big enough hit at the box office. One of the things it has going for it is that it actually cost half as much as another Disney, er, Searchlight Best Picture nominee this past year, “A Complete Unknown.” So, in all seriousness, if it has a massive opening weekend, it could already be profitable by weekend two (we’re not exaggerating). And the industry loves that, especially if it’s a movie they like. Don’t sleep on that storyline.
Another nominee this past season, Jeremy Strong, is very good in the film as Springsteen’s longtime manager, Jon Landau. There’s nothing wrong with his performance, but the real standout Supporting Actor player is Stephen Graham in just four or five scenes as Springsteen’s father. Will Graham even want to campaign, though? He’s just been through a long Emmy season for “Adolescence” and has a lot of projects on his shooting schedule. Ponder, pt. 2.
Among other films, the aforementioned Cannes favorite “Sentimental Value” played incredibly well. Did we mention it made Oprah cry? I mean, that’s the endorsement you want from a major AMPAS influencer. Put it on a t-shirt NEON. The mini-major knows they have something special and have run this marathon from Cannes to Telluride before with “Parasite” and “Anora.” “Value” is going to get a ton of nominations. Whether the movie, or stars Stellan Skarsgard and Renate Reinsve, can win it all remains to be seen.
Movies that are likely no longer in play include Edward Berger’s “Ballad of a Small Player,” which will probably still land Colin Farrell a Golden Globe nomination, and maybe Critics’ Choice, but that is pretty much where that Netflix release is headed.
Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” a sneak everyone knew about for weeks, is certainly a below-the-line player in Production Design, Sound, Costumes, and Hair and Make-Up. More importantly, it’s probably one of Alexander Desplat’s best scores in forever. It better be in the running for an Original Score nod. As for the picture itself, how can it be a real Best Picture nominee if there’s no real actor nom in play? Jacob Elordi is very good as the monster, but it’s hard to see that performance getting nominated even in a wide-open Supporting Actor field. Oscar Isaac is having a blast as Victor Frankenstein, and he’s always captivating, but we’re not sure that this is the performance that lands him his next nomination. That being said, del Toro is the Jamie Lee Curtis of directors and filmmakers in terms of getting a Best Picture nominee across the finish line. And if enough contenders fall by the wayside, perhaps “Frankenstein” is one of those fringe players that gets in. But will it be too gory for The Academy? Yes, that sounds strange, considering “The Substance” and “Get Out” were both handsomely rewarded, but this one is more gory than those two films combined.
In terms of other films, the big surprise was probably “Pillion,” a Cannes Un Certain Regard award winner starring Harry Melling and Alexander Skarsgård that everyone who sees it seems to love. If you had told me when I screened the unconventional romance before Cannes that it was going to be a potential awards player, I would have said maybe some Independent Spirit Awards or Gotham Awards love, at best. Maybe some critics’ groups awards. Maybe best First Time Theatrical Feature Film nomfrom the DGA Awards for Harry Lighton, which would be rare even for a UK-based film. But it’s an A24 release, and people just love it despite the fact that it’s set in a gay, potentially dom-sub relationship that might be off-putting when you hear it as a log line. But it is original which is a big buzzword these days. Could Melling crack the best actor race? Could Skarsgård and his father both be supporting actor nominees? Yeah, it’s probably a massive reach, but it’s certainly not impossible. To be fair, the film could also crack the Adapted Screenplay category, which, in hindsight, may be more competitive than we initially thought it was.
Additionally, Rose Byrne, inherently lovely, is in the middle of a wonderful second-act festival swing for Sundance stand-out “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Mary Bronstein’s imaginative drama has already played Berlin, Karlovy Vary, and opened the Melbourne Film Festival. After Telluride, it heads to TIFF and NYFF. I mean, that’s a run. A24 is setting her up in the Best Actress nomination race nicely.
Richard Linklater’s fantastic “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix) and Berlin-winner “Blue Moon” (SPC) both screened, but, to be fair, we didn’t hear much among attendees about them. Same for Jafar Panahi’s Palm d’Or winner “It Was Just An Accident” or Kleber Mendonça Filho’s “The Secret Agent.” That’s not to suggest those movies didn’t make an impact with AMPAS voters on hand, but the schedule was shockingly unkind to several films this year (Sunday’s doc-dominated lineup was intensely frustrating). And it’s better not to have any feedback than to hear a negative reaction (not that those films are worried).
Lasting images include Oprah and David Oyelowo sitting with the people at “Frankenstein,” a late-arriving Sandler having to sit by himself to catch “Bugonia,” Margot Robbie everywhere, Harris Dickinson everywhere, Paul Mescal everywhere, Claire Foy everywhere, Wagner Moura cut in line in front of me, er, everywhere, Colin Farrell everywhere, Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons everywhere, Rian Johnson everywhere, Jason Reitman everywhere and, oh yes, young people. In 16 years of attending, I haven’t seen this many people at Telluride under the age of 30…ever? And they weren’t just students. Pass holders, baby.
Maybe there is hope for the movies after all.
Starting Thursday, media descend upon Toronto as “Rental Family,” “Roofman,” and “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Movie,” among others, attempt to join in the awards season fray.
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