“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” you’re on the clock. Tonight, Universal Pictures continued its rollout of media screenings of Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked For Good,” one of two remaining Best Picture players.* And while we need to tiptoe around reviewing the second part of the stage musical’s cinematic adaptation, we can discuss its Oscar prospects. And, shocker: they are quite good.
*Technically, this writer hasn’t seen “Marty Supreme” yet because Dua Lipa floor tickets took precedence, but that will be wrapped up next week.
READ MORE: “One Battle After Another” Earns Record Six 2025 Gotham Awards Nominations [Complete List]
Originally known as “Wicked: Part One,” now seemingly just titled “Wicked,” the first part of our tale earned an impressive 10 Academy Award nominations this past January. In March, it took home Costume Design (Paul Tazewell) and Production Design (Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales) wins. Fast forward almost seven months, and despite a seemingly more competitive field in many categories, “Wicked For Good” is likely to earn eight to nine nominations this time around. That’s partially thanks to two new songs written for the movie (the first installment had no Original Song contender). And, our guess is “No Place Like Home,” sung by Cynthia Erivo, which is shockingly timely in more ways than one, will earn a nomination. The other submission is “The Girl in the Bubble,” sung by Ariana Grande, which has a shot too.
Duplicate Costumes, Sound, Visual Effects, and Makeup and Hairstyling nods feel close to a given. Whether it can earn Original Score or Production Design noms remains to be seen, however. The music may be judged as too similar to the first movie, and while there are some stunning new sets, it may not be enough for that branch to reward Crowley and Sandales twice. Although Universal can certainly argue sequels for “The Lord of the Rings” and “Dune” (including “Dune: Part Two” last year) had no problem repeating in Production Design. And outside of a technicality disqualification for the latter, Original Score, too.
More importantly, you can breathe easy, “Wicked” fans. Erivo and Grande should earn nominations for Lead Actress and Supporting once more. And while both were worthy of winning for the first “Wicked,” the minor surprise this time around is how spectacular Grande is as Glinda’s story unfolds. Granted, the narrative of the stage book always shifted to Glinda after intermission, but what Grande does here…well, she could absolutely win. And, yes, we’re well aware that no actor or actress has won an Oscar for a performance in a sequel or playing the same character twice, but there’s a first time for everything. The question is whether “One Battle After Another’s” Teyana Taylor or “Weapons'” Amy Madigan, among others, can snag the trophy instead.
As for the most important category, Best Picture, “Wicked for Good” is a safe bet to repeat. Especially with a very emotional third act and Chu delivering some inspired direction when it truly counts. It also won’t hurt that it’s expected to dominate at the box office for weeks on end. Well, at least until “Avatar” arrives. That being said, as with the first movie, Adapted Screenplay and Director noms may simply be too tough a nut for Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox, and Chu to crack.
As for the rest of the Best Picture race, we’ve had some major movement in the bottom five of our top 10 projections. And, frankly, we’d expect that to continue over the next two and a half months. It’s the wild west out there in awards season land, with contenders rising and falling like LA temperatures in October. This race has a long, long way to go.
Keeping all that in mind, your Contender Countdown for…
Oct. 30, 2025
1 “One Battle After Another”
Killing it overseas. Maybe it will break even when it gets re-released after Oscar nominations. Maybe.
2 “Hamnet”
Paul Mescal is still a silent Supporting Actor spoiler for Stellan Skarsgard or Sean Penn. Still think he could have won Best Actor if campaigned in that category.
3 “Sinners”
Michael B. Jordan is looking more and more safe in the Best Actor race. Is Ryan Coogler as safe to make the Best Director five?
4 “Sentimental Value”
Notice that Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas is the “Value” star who landed the Supporting Performance Gotham nomination.
5 “Wicked For Good”*
Did we mention that Jeff Goldblum has a great solo number this time around?
6 “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
As previously discussed, unless it’s terrible, it’s looking safer and safer by the hour.
7 “It Was Just An Accident”
It may not spoil a “One Battle” sweep of NYFCC, LAFCA, and NBR, but Jafar Panahi could snag one or two Best Director prizes out from under PTA.
8 “Marty Supreme”*
As noted, we still haven’t seen it, but it’s here till it’s potentially not.
9 “Train Dreams”
Remember how we said the more people who screen it, the better its chances are? Oh, yes. More people have seen it.
10 “Is This Thing Still On?”
You haven’t looked at the reviews, have you? Still borderline for the 10, but…
11 “Frankenstein”
Is the charisma of Guillermo Del Toro and a ton of below-the-line enough to get in? Why do we keep running into industry peeps who aren’t impressed? Or maybe they are running into us?
12 “Rental Family”
In a bit of a holding pattern. Let’s revisit this crowd-pleaser’s chances after Thanksgiving.
13 “No Other Choice”
In a perfect world, it’s already a lock for the 10. Two Gotham Awards nominations, including one for star Lee Byung-hun, ain’t bad.
14 “Bugonia”
It’s going to earn several key nominations, including a Best Actress nod for Emma Stone, but it might need newsworthy global box office to break away from the pack of films fighting for that last slot.
15 “Nouvelle Vague”
If this doesn’t get a Casting nomination, retire the category before they award the first winner.
16 “The Secret Agent”
Not generating the heat that many expected. Should make the International Film five, though with an emphasis on “should.”
17 “The Testament of Ann Lee”
Earning a Best Feature nomination from the Gotham Awards committee doesn’t hurt. Definitely a “those that love it, love it” player.
18 “A House of Dynamite”
Remember when it was one of the best-reviewed films out of Venice? Now, not so much. Then again, the more free publicity the Pentagon gives it, the better.
19 “Weapons”
It could be the biggest sleeper of them all or just a nomination win for Madigan in Supporting Actress.
20 “Jay Kelly”
Honestly, after the flat reception at AFI, it feels like a major long shot. Adam Sandler and Billy Crudup still have a shot.
Still lurking: “Sirat,” “F1,” “Nuremberg,” “Blue Moon,” “Die My Love,” “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story,” “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
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