There is almost always a surprise. The Emmy Awards tend to be more predictable than other award entities, but every year, the 26,000 Television Academy members throw an upset of some kind into the ring. Last year, “Hacks” upset “The Bear” for Comedy Series. In 2022, “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” shocked “RuPaul’s Drag Race” in the Reality Competition category while “Abbott Elementary” won Comedy Writing over “Barry,” “Hacks,” and “Ted Lasso.” In 2020, Billy Crudup took Supporting Actor in a Drama Series over three heralded “Succession” stars, among others. Sometimes there are even two.
READ MORE: Creative Arts Emmys Night One: “The Studio,” “The Penguin” And “Severance” Dominate
The big question is where that upset will be on Sunday when the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards are unveiled. Supporting Actor in a Drama Series? Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series? Will “Hacks” and “The Studio” somehow split the Outstanding Comedy Series vote? Or maybe it’s not really an upset, and it’s been in front of us the whole time. Maybe the abundance of love for “The Pitt” is a mirage, and “Severance” will win Drama Series easily. Shoot, maybe Nate Bargatze will turn out to be a good host (wait, on second thought, his plan to keep speeches short this year is some guild-ridden B.S.)
Keeping all this in mind, here are some educated predictions for television’s biggest night. Assuming any watches, that is.
READ MORE: Creative Arts Emmys Night Two: “SNL 50,” “The Traitors” And “Pee-Wee As Himself” Top All Winners
Outstanding Drama Series
Andor
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
Paradise
The Pitt
Severance
Slow Horses
The White Lotus
Who will win: “The Pitt”
Who should win: “Andor”
Upset: “Severance”
Lowdown: “Andor” is the masterpiece, “Severance” is critically acclaimed, but “The Pitt” is beloved. The popular Apple TV+ thriller could still win, but no one speaks about it like “The Pitt” fans. That should be enough for the HBO Max breakout to take the crown.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
Shrinking
The Studio
What We Do in the Shadows
Who will win: “The Studio”
Who should win: “The Studio”
Upset: “Hacks”
Lowdown: Listen, “Hacks” could repeat here. It already upset “The Bear” last year. That being said, “The Studio” is not “The Bear” in the slightest. No one is questioning whether it’s a comedy or a drama, and it earned a massive 23 Emmy nominations, already winning nine at the Creative Arts Emmys last weekend. Get ready for a big, “Thank you, Sal Saperstein!” moment.
Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series
Adolescence
Black Mirror
Dying For Sex
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Mendendez Story
The Penguin
Who will win: “Adolescence”
Who should win: “Adolescence”
Upset: “The Penguin”
Lowdown: “The Penguin” is respected by critics and industry alike and was a big hit for HBO Max. It’s not anywhere close to “Adolescence.” That four-episode drama is the third most-watched English-language TV series in Netflix history after “Wednesday” season 1 and both seasons of “Squid Game.” It was a legit pop culture phenomenon. It should easily give Netflix something to celebrate Sunday night.
Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar
Beyoncé Bowl
The Oscars
SNL50: The Anniversary Special
SNL50: The Homecoming Concert
Who will win: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special”
Who should win: “The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar”
Upset: None
Lowdown: CBS and the Television Academy moved this award to Prime time, hoping Beyoncé would show up. Well, the Queen Bee already won her first Emmy for Costume Design a month ago. Not only did “SNL 50” clean up at the Creative Arts Emmys, winning seven of 11 categories handed out, but Bey is reportedly in the U.K. getting her new mansion ready. Of all the categories to add to the show. Oof.
Outstanding Reality Competition Program
The Amazing Race
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Survivor
Top Chef
The Traitors
Who will win: “The Traitors”
Who should win: “The Traitors”
Upset: None
Lowdown: Barring a disastrous season 4, expect the Peacock hit to win this category for a few more years.
Outstanding Talk Series
The Daily Show
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
Who will win: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert”
Who should win: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” or “The Daily Show”
Upset: “The Daily Show”
Lowdown: Considering how CBS already shockingly canceled “The Late Show” before voting began and fellow nominee Jimmy Kimmel posted a billboard saying he was voting for Stephen, we’re expecting “The Late Show” to win here. That being said, if enough voters somehow didn’t realize any of that was happening, “The Daily Show” could take it
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Saturday Night Live
Who will win: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
Who should win: Neither
Upset: I mean
Lowdown: A category with two nominees really doesn’t make any sense. Either combine this with the Variety Talk Series category or eliminate both. That being said, “Last Week Tonight” should win because it always does. Maybe “SNL” gets a 50th boost, but we doubt it.
Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series
The Bear • Napkins • FX on Hulu • FX Productions
Ayo Edebiri, Directed by
Hacks • A Slippery Slope • HBO | Max • Universal Television in association with Paulilu, First Thought Productions, Fremulon Productions, 3 Arts Entertainment
Lucia Aniello, Directed by
Mid-Century Modern • Here’s To You, Mrs. Schneiderman • Hulu • 20th Television in association with Ryan Murphy Television and KoMut Entertainment
James Burrows, Directed by
The Rehearsal • Pilot’s Code • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Blow Out Productions
Nathan Fielder, Directed by
The Studio • The Oner • Apple TV+ • Lionsgate Television in association with Apple
Seth Rogen, Directed by Evan Goldberg, Directed by
Who will win: “The Studio” The Oner
Who should win: “The Studio” The Oner
Upset: “Hacks,” A Slippery Slope
Lowdown: “The Oner” is one of the best short films we’ve seen in years, let alone television episodes. If the directors pick something else, we’ll be genuinely surprised. Plus, “The Bear” has already won this honor two years in a row. That being said, “Modern Family” did win this category four years in a row beginning just 14 years ago, so…
Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series
Andor • Who Are You? • Disney+ • Lucasfilm Ltd.
Janus Metz, Directed by
The Pitt • 6:00 P.M. • HBO | Max • Max in association with John Wells Productions, R. Scott Gemmill Productions, and Warner Bros. Television
Amanda Marsalis, Directed by
The Pitt • 7:00 A.M. • HBO | Max • Max in association with John Wells Productions, R. Scott Gemmill Productions, and Warner Bros. Television
John Wells, Directed by
Severance • Chikhai Bardo • Apple TV+ • Fifth Season in association with Apple
Jessica Lee Gagné, Directed by
Severance • Cold Harbor • Apple TV+ • Fifth Season in association with Apple
Ben Stiller, Directed by
Slow Horses • Hello Goodbye • Apple TV+ • See-Saw Films in association with Apple
Adam Randall, Directed by
The White Lotus • Amor Fati • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Rip Cord and MC Pictures
Mike White, Directed by
Who will win: “Severance,” Cold Harbor, Ben Stiller
Who should win: “Andor,” Who Are You?, Janus Metz
Upset: “Severance,” Chikhai Bardo, Jessica Lee Gagné, or of “The Pitt” episodes
Lowdown: This is a very competitive field with a lot of potential vote splitting affecting “Severance” and “The Pitt’s” contenders. We still think Stiller will pull it out, but outside of “Slow Horses” taking it, every other nominee could surprise.
Outstanding Directing For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
Adolescence • Netflix • Warp Films, Matriarch Productions and Plan B for Netflix
Philip Barantini, Directed by
Dying For Sex • It’s Not That Serious • FX on Hulu • 20th Television
Shannon Murphy, Directed by
The Penguin • Cent’anni • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Acid and Tender Productions, 6th & Idaho Motion Picture Company, Dylan Clark Productions, Chapel Place Productions, Zobot Projects, DC Studios, and Warner Bros. Television Helen Shaver, Directed by
The Penguin • A Great Or Little Thing • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Acid and Tender Productions, 6th & Idaho Motion Picture Company, Dylan Clark Productions, Chapel Place Productions, Zobot Projects, DC Studios, and Warner Bros. Television Jennifer Getzinger, Directed by
Sirens • Exile • Netflix • LuckyChap, Quiet Coyote and On The Verge for Netflix
Nicole Kassell, Directed by
Zero Day • Netflix • A Netflix Series / Grand Electric / Prologue Entertainment / Canal Productions, Inc / Glickmania / Whatever Lola Wants Productions, Inc.
Lesli Linka Glatter, Directed by
Who will win: “Adolescence,” Philip Barantini
Who should win: “Adolescence,” Philip Barantini,
Upset: None
Lowdown: Would be genuinely shocked if voters in this category ignored the brilliance of Barantini’s work in “Adolescence.” The directors know these one-shots are not easy in the slightest.
Outstanding Writing For A Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary • Back To School • ABC • Delicious Non-Sequitur Productions and Fifth Chance in association with Warner Bros. Television and 20th Television
Quinta Brunson, Written by
Hacks • A Slippery Slope • HBO | Max • Universal Television in association with Paulilu, First Thought Productions, Fremulon Productions, 3 Arts Entertainment
Lucia Aniello, Written by Paul W. Downs, Written by Jen Statsky, Written by
The Rehearsal • Pilot’s Code • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Blow Out Productions
Nathan Fielder, Written by Carrie Kemper, Written by Adam Locke-Norton, Written by Eric Notarnicola, Written by
Somebody Somewhere • AGG • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Duplass Brothers Productions and Mighty Mint
Hannah Bos, Written by Paul Thureen, Written by Bridget Everett, Written by
The Studio • The Promotion • Apple TV+ • Lionsgate Television in association with Apple
Seth Rogen, Written by Evan Goldberg, Written by Peter Huyck, Written by Alex Gregory, Written by Frida Perez, Written by
What We Do In The Shadows • The Finale • FX on Hulu • FX Productions
Sam Johnson, Written by Sarah Naftalis, Written by Paul Simms, Written by
Who will win: “Hacks,” A Slippery Slope
Who should win: “Somebody Somewhere,” AGG
Upset: “The Studio,” The Promotion
Lowdown: This is another tough one. It usually lines up with the Comedy Series winner, which means “The Studio” has a shot here, but not always (“Abbott Elementary” took it in 2022). “A Slippery Slope” is a very funny episode and should win, but there could be a major surprise.
Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series
Andor • Welcome To The Rebellion • Disney+ • Lucasfilm Ltd.
Dan Gilroy, Written by
The Pitt • 2:00 P.M. • HBO | Max • Max in association with John Wells Productions, R. Scott Gemmill Productions, and Warner Bros. Television
Joe Sachs, Written by
The Pitt • 7:00 A.M. • HBO | Max • Max in association with John Wells Productions, R. Scott Gemmill Productions, and Warner Bros. Television
R. Scott Gemmill, Written by
Severance • Cold Harbor • Apple TV+ • Fifth Season in association with Apple
Dan Erickson, Written by
Slow Horses • Hello Goodbye • Apple TV+ • See-Saw Films in association with Apple
Will Smith, Written by
The White Lotus • Full-Moon Party • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Rip Cord and MC Pictures
Mike White, Written by
Who will win: “Severance,” Cold Harbor
Who should win: “Andor,” Welcome to the Rebellion
Upset: “Andor,” Welcome to the Rebellion, either “The Pitt” episode
Lowdown: We expect “Severance” to take this for its lauded season finale, but if the love for “The Pitt” is that strong, it might not matter.
Outstanding Writing For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
Adolescence • Netflix • Warp Films, Matriarch Productions and Plan B for Netflix
Jack Thorne, Written by Stephen Graham, Written by
Black Mirror • Common People • Netflix • Broke & Bones for Netflix
Charlie Brooker, Written by & Story by Bisha K. Ali, Story by
Dying For Sex • Good Value Diet Soda • FX on Hulu • 20th Television
Kim Rosenstock, Teleplay by & Story by Elizabeth Meriwether, Story by
The Penguin • A Great Or Little Thing • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Acid and Tender Productions, 6th & Idaho Motion Picture Company, Dylan Clark Productions, Chapel Place Productions, Zobot Projects, DC Studios, and Warner Bros. Television Lauren LeFranc, Written by
Say Nothing • The People In The Dirt • FX on Hulu • FX Productions
Joshua Zetumer, Written by
Who will win: “Adolescence, Jack Thorne, Stephen Graham
Who should win: “Adolescence, Jack Thorne, Stephen Graham
Upset: “The Penguin,” A Great Or Little Thing, Lauren LeFranc
Lowdown: Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham should win this, but if the writers want to spread the love, Lauren LeFranc‘s “Penguin” entry is right there. Kim Rosenstock and Elizabeth Meriwether’s “Dying For Sex” is also superb work, but we’re not sure there is a big enough fan base for the FX series to get her past those major players.
Outstanding Writing For A Variety Series
The Daily Show • Comedy Central • Hello Doggie, Inc.
Dan Amira, Head Writer Daniel Radosh, Senior Writer
Lauren Sarver Means, Senior Writer David Angelo, Writer
Nicole Conlan, Writer Devin Delliquanti, Writer Zach DiLanzo, Writer Jennifer Flanz, Writer Jason Gilbert, Writer Dina Hashem, Writer Scott Hercman, Writer David Kibuuka, Writer Matt Koff, Writer
Matt O’Brien, Writer Joseph Opio, Writer Randall Otis, Writer Zhubin Parang, Writer Kat Radley, Writer Lanee’ Sanders, Writer Scott Sherman, Writer Jon Stewart, Writer Ashton Womack, Writer Sophie Zucker, Writer
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Peyance Productions and Avalon Television
Daniel O’Brien, Senior Writer Owen Parsons, Senior Writer Charlie Redd, Senior Writer Joanna Rothkopf, Senior Writer Seena Vali, Senior Writer Johnathan Appel, Writer
Ali Barthwell, Writer Tim Carvell, Writer Liz Hynes, Writer Ryan Ken, Writer Sofía Manfredi, Writer John Oliver, Writer
Taylor Kay Phillips, Writer Chrissy Shackelford, Writer
Saturday Night Live • NBC • SNL Studios in association with Universal Television and Broadway Video
Kent Sublette, Head Writer Streeter Seidell, Head Writer Alison Gates, Head Writer
Dan Bulla, Writing Supervised by Will Stephen, Writing Supervised by
Auguste White, Writing Supervised by Celeste Yim, Writing Supervised by Bryan Tucker, Senior Writer
Steven Castillo, Written by Michael Che, Written by Mike DiCenzo, Written by Jimmy Fowlie, Written by Martin Herlihy, Written by John Higgins, Written by Steve Higgins, Written by Colin Jost, Written by
Erik Kenward, Written by Allie Levitan, Written by Ben Marshall, Written by Lorne Michaels, Written by Jake Nordwind, Written by Ceara O’Sullivan, Written by Moss Perricone, Written by Carl Tart, Written by
Asha Ward, Written by
Pete Schultz, Weekend Update Head Writer Rosebud Baker, Weekend Update Written by Megan Callahan-Shah, Weekend Update Written by Dennis McNicholas, Weekend Update Written by Josh Patten, Weekend Update Written by
KC Shornima, Weekend Update Written by
Who will win: “The Daily Show”
Who should win: “The Daily Show”
Upset: “Saturday Night Live”
Lowdown: Will “SNL” Get a 50th boost across the board even though the Anniversary Special was in a different category? Which they already won? We’ll find out here.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series
Nobody Wants This • Netflix • 20th Television in association with Steven Levitan Productions for Netflix
Adam Brody as Noah Roklov
The Studio • Apple TV+ • Lionsgate Television in association with Apple
Seth Rogen as Matt Remick
Shrinking • Apple TV+ • Warner Bros. Television in association with Apple
Jason Segel as Jimmy
Only Murders In The Building • Hulu • 20th Television
Martin Short as Oliver Putnam
The Bear • FX on Hulu • FX Productions
Jeremy Allen White as Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto
Who will win: Seth Rogen, “The Studio”
Who should win: Seth Rogen, “The Studio”
Upset: Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Lowdown: Jeremy Allen White took this last year despite “The Bear” losing Comedy Series. Martin Short was a big upset at the SAG Awards in February. Will Rogen take this in a night where “The Studio” is expected to dominate? Or Will White or Short repeat their recent wins?
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
Paradise • Hulu • 20th Television
Sterling K. Brown as Agent Xavier Collins
Slow Horses • Apple TV+ • See-Saw Films in association with Apple
Gary Oldman as Jackson Lamb
The Last Of Us • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Sony Pictures Television, PlayStation Productions, Word Games, The Mighty Mint, and Naughty Dog
Pedro Pascal as Joel
Severance • Apple TV+ • Fifth Season in association with Apple
Adam Scott as Mark Scout
The Pitt • HBO | Max • Max in association with John Wells Productions, R. Scott Gemmill Productions, and Warner Bros. Television
Noah Wyle as Dr. Michael “Robby” Robinavitch
Who will win: Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”
Who should win: Adam Scott, “Severance”
Upset: None
Lowdown: Wyle is the feel-good story of the season. Book it.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
The Penguin • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Acid and Tender Productions, 6th & Idaho Motion Picture Company, Dylan Clark Productions, Chapel Place Productions, Zobot Projects, DC Studios, and Warner Bros. Television
Colin Farrell as Oswald “Oz” Cobb
Adolescence • Netflix • Warp Films, Matriarch Productions and Plan B for Netflix
Stephen Graham as Eddie Miller
Presumed Innocent • Apple TV+ • Bad Robot Productions / David E. Kelley Productions in association with Warner Bros. Television for Apple
Jake Gyllenhaal as Rusty Sabich
Dope Thief • Apple TV+ • Apple Studios / A Scott Free Production
Brian Tyree Henry as Ray Driscoll
Monsters: The Lyle And Erik Menendez Story • Netflix • Ryan Murphy Productions for Netflix
Cooper Koch as Erik Menendez
Who will win: Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
Who should win: Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
Upset: Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
Lowdown: This is going to be very close. Our instinct is to go with Stephen Graham, who, like Colin Farrell, has worked in Hollywood for decades, but “The Penguin’s” mighty haul at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards demonstrates across-the-board love for the HBO Max limited series. It could still go either way, but we think Farrell gets the trophy.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
The Residence • Netflix • A Netflix Original Series in association with shondalandmedia
Uzo Aduba as Cordelia Cupp
Nobody Wants This • Netflix • 20th Television in association with Steven Levitan Productions for Netflix
Kristen Bell as Joanne
Abbott Elementary • ABC • Delicious Non-Sequitur Productions and Fifth Chance in association with Warner Bros. Television and 20th Television
Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues
The Bear • FX on Hulu • FX Productions
Ayo Edebiri as Sydney Adamu
Hacks • HBO | Max • Universal Television in association with Paulilu, First Thought Productions, Fremulon Productions, 3 Arts Entertainment
Jean Smart as Deborah Vance
Who will win: Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Who should win: Jean Smart, “Hacks,” or Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Upset: None
Lowdown: A fifth and final season of “Hacks” is arriving next year. We expect Smart to go five for five when all is said and done.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
Matlock • CBS • CBS Studios
Kathy Bates as Madeline “Matty” Matlock
Bad Sisters • Apple TV+ • Merman / ABC Signature in association with Apple
Sharon Horgan as Eva Garvey
Severance • Apple TV+ • Fifth Season in association with Apple
Britt Lower as Helly Riggs / Helena
The Last Of Us • HBO | Max • HBO in association with Sony Pictures Television, PlayStation Productions, Word Games, The Mighty Mint, and Naughty Dog
Bella Ramsey as Ellie
The Diplomat • Netflix • A Netflix Series
Keri Russell as Kate Wyler
Who will win: Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
Who should win: Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
Upset: Britt Lower, “Severance”
Lowdown: It’s not a competitive field, but if Lower wins this, “Severance” may snag the Drama Series crown. Bates’s winning gives broadcast television a rare top category triumph. A lot of people are rooting for her to take it.
