Are you expecting surprises at this year’s Academy Awards ceremony? Historically, there are usually one or two, but perhaps lower your expectations after what has felt like a bumpy, final few weeks. After a mostly scandal-free Oscars season, several distractions have occurred since the upset wins at the SAG Actors Awards, but they likely only reiterated a sneaking suspicion we’ve had in the Best Actor race for months. They haven’t signaled much further. But more on that in a minute.
READ MORE: “Sinners,” “The Studio,” and “The Pitt’ Triumph At 2026 SAG Actor Awards
The big question in the back of many movie fans’ and awards watchers’ minds is whether “Sinners” can snag the Best Picture trophy from the seemingly inevitable and long-assumed frontrunner, “One Battle After Another.” The Paul Thomas Anderson comedic thriller has dominated the season, taking every major critics group honor, the BAFTA Award, the PGA Award, the DGA Award, and a plethora of other guild honors. Many have high hopes that Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” can pull the upset after winning the SAG Actor Ensemble. Except, to many awards watchers, this one included, that win was expected. Michael B. Jordan, taking Lead Actor, was not.
It’s not an exaggeration to state that if “One Battle” lost Best Picture now, it would be close to unprecedented. Even with “Sinners” breaking the record for the most Oscar nominations ever, with 16, “One Battle” is not “La La Land,” a paper tiger alongside eventual winner “Moonlight.” That was a case where grumbles about the movie musical with Oscar voters grew louder and louder each passing week. This is also not “1917,” which had little actor support and hoped to win off below the line love (“Parasite” received no acting nominations but won the SAG Ensemble). Is “Sinners” winning possible? Absolutely, people do love it. But most members this pundit spoke to, at least, have “One Battle” ranked higher. And if that’s disappointing, don’t shoot the messenger. If I had a vote, it would be for “Hamnet.”
A gentle reminder for those playing the prediction game at home or with work colleagues. You usually win your party or office pool with the short categories. Pay close attention this year. They are the only races that can genuinely shock.
Keeping all that in mind, here are your final Oscar predictions for the 2026 season.
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Best Picture
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Who Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Who Should Win: “Hamnet,” “Sinners,” “Sentimental Value”
Upset: “Sinners”
Lowdown: If “Sinners” is announced, expect an epic eruption from the crowd, but this win should cap off “One Battle’s” dominating awards season run.
Achievement in Directing
Chloe Zhao, “Hamnet”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Should Win: Chole Zhao
Upset: None
Lowdown: PTA is guaranteed two Oscars on Sunday. This is one of them.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Who Should Win: Michael B. Jordan
Upset: Wagner Moura, Leonardo DiCaprio
Lowdown: Oh, boy. The most important thing to realize in this category is that the industry has told everyone multiple times they do not want to reward Timothée Chalamet for “Marty Supreme” when they easily could have. He was overlooked at both SAG and BAFTA. Michael B. Jordan’s SAG win was massive, and the fact that “Sinners” has a record 16 nominations needs to be taken into account. It might not win Best Picture, but it is going to take a slew of statues, and this is likely one of them. Even if Jordan’s win came halfway through the final Oscar voting period, the SAG win (and Viola Davis’ exuberant reveal) appears to have put him over the top. “The Secret Agent’s” Wagner Moura is the wild card. He was not part of the mix of BAFTA or SAG nominees, but we’ve also found more members voting for Leonardo DiCaprio, who has barely campaigned, than for the Brazilian. Not a good sign.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renata Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Who Should Win: Jessie Buckley
Upset: None
Lowdown: It’s Buckley, easy. Rose Byrne has a very slim chance, but even those who shrugged at “Hamnet” (don’t get us started on that) heap praise on Buckley. One of the easy locks of the night.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value”
Who Will Win: Sean Penn
Who Should Win: Stellan Skarsgard, Delroy Lindo
Upset: Delroy Lindo
Lowdown: “One Battle’s” Sean Penn has stayed away from most of the awards ceremonies, and it may have been a strategy that puts him in the three-time winner club. He’s won both BAFTA and SAG, but “Sinners'” Delroy Lindo wasn’t nominated for either. And if BAFTA wasn’t going to select the absolutely deserving Stellan Skarsgard, it’s hard to see AMPAS picking him over Penn. But Lindo is immensely respected, and if “Sinners” is gunning for an upset night, it may start here.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan
Who Should Win: Amy Madigan
Upset: Wunmi Mosaku, Teyana Taylor
Lowdown: Most members we’ve spoken to are picking the sole “Weapons” nominee in this category. Others are picking “One Battle’s” Teyana Taylor, and a few “Sinners” stand out, Wunmi Mosaku. The latter is a former BAFTA winner. Her win at last month’s ceremony shouldn’t have come as that much of a surprise. Could Taylor make a comeback after losing both SAG and BAFTA? It’s…possible? But the momentum feels like it’s been on Madigan’s side since the nominations were revealed. A close race, for sure.
Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) Written by Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) Written by Jafar Panahi
Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme” (A24) Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Written by Ryan Coogler
Who Will Win: Ryan Coogler
Who Should Win: Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Upset: Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Lowdown: Ryan Coogler will win his first Academy Award after seven nominations. Book it.
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) Screenplay by Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Should Win: Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
Upset: None
Lowdown: This will be the first Oscar win for Paul Thomas Anderson after 11 previous nominations. This is his sixth screenwriting nomination and his third in this category. It’s time.
Casting
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24) Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Francine Maisler
Who Will Win: Francine Maisler
Who Should Win: Francine Maisler
Upset: Gabriel Domingues, Cassandra Kulukundis
Lowdown: Maisler absolutely deserves this for “Sinners,” but she’s also a legendary Casting Director who would be a pitch-perfect first winner in this category. For the inaugural edition of this Oscar, that’s hard to ignore.
Animated Feature
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
Who Will Win: “Kpop Demon Hunters”
Who Should Win: “Arco” or “Zootopia 2”
Upset: None
Lowdown: We still think “Zootopia 2” should have campaigned harder in phase one, but Sharkira not making the shortlist for Original Song took some steam out of their plans. It’s “KPop” easily.
Production Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Production Design: Tamara Deverell Set Decoration:
Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Production Design: Fiona Crombie Set Decoration:
Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24) Production Design: Jack Fisk Set Decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) Production Design: Florencia Martin Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Production Design: Hannah Beachler Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Who Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Who Should Win: Pick ’em
Upset: None
Lowdown: Honestly, and no disrespect, we think a lot of Tamara Deverel’s work is a bit of a mixed bag. There are some fantastic sets (Frankenstein’s manor, the sailing ship stuck in the ice), and some other creations that just scream fake movie set (the castle, the lab, etc). But none of the other nominees are remarkable enough to surpass it. Sadly, the real winner in this category in 2025 was “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” which got snubbed. And don’t get us started on how the incredible work in Bi Gan’s “Resurrection” was overlooked either.
Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme” (A24) Darius Khondji
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) Adolpho Veloso
Who Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Who Should Win: “Sinners” or “Train Dreams”
Upset: “Sinners” or “Train Dreams”
Lowdown: Michael Bauman won BAFTA and the ASC. Plus, too many voters have told us they are going with “One Battle.” Both Autumn Arkapaw and Adolpho Veloso are deserving, but we think in a tight race, voters are going for their Best Picture winner. So, if Arkapaw does win here, maybe “Sinners” pulls off the Best Picture upset.
Costume Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (Walt Disney) Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme” (A24) Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Ruth E. Carter
Who Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Who Should Win: Pick ’em.
Upset: None
Lowdown: The fact that “Avatar: Fire and Ash” was nominated this year tells you how little passion there was for other nominees. “Bugonia,” “The Testament of Ann Lee,” and even the second chapter to last year’s winner, “Wicked for Good,” should have found their way onto this list.
Film Editing
“F1” (Apple) Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme” (A24) Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Michael P. Shawver
Who Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Who Should Win: “F1”
Upset: “Sinners,” “F1”
Lowdown: No disrespect to Andy Jurgensen‘s fine work, but Stephen Mirrione truly pulled off something remarkable with “F1.” Oh, well.
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho” (GKIDS) Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi
Nishimatsu
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine” (A24) Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister” (Independent Film Company/Shudder) Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Who Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Who Should Win: “Sinners” or “Kokuho”
Upset: None
Lowdown: An easy win for Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey.
Sound
“F1” (Apple) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle,
Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson
Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and
Tony Villaflor
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco,
Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirāt” (Neon) Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina
Praderas
Who Will Win: “F1”
Who Should Win: “Sirat” or “F1”
Upset: “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners”
Lowdown: This is probably a much closer race than people are expecting. I’ve heard voters pick all over the place. In theory, “F1” will take it, but “One Battle” or “Sinners” would not surprise here.
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (Walt Disney) Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and
Daniel Barrett
“F1” (Apple) Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert
Harrington and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World Rebirth” (Universal) David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan
and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus” (Apple) Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and
Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and
Donnie Dean
Who Will Win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Who Should Win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Upset: None
Lowdown: There will be no upset here with so little genuine competition. The “Avatar” franchise has this wrapped up.
Original Score
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) Max Richter
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Ludwig Goransson
Who Will Win: “Sinners”
Who Should Win: “Hamnet”
Upset: None
Lowdown: We love Ludwig Goransson, but we’re not convinced this is his best work, and we’re also not convinced he’s being slightly overrewarded by the Academy. He’s still your winner, though.
Original Song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (MasterClass/ Greenwich Entertainment), Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick,
Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” (Viva Verdi!), Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix) Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner, Lyric by Nick Cave
Who Will Win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
Who Should Win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” or “I Lied To You” from “Sinners”
Upset: None
Lowdown: The “Golden” team already won the Grammy Award for the equivalent category from their music industry peers. This race was over months ago. Now, how do we stop Diane Warren from getting nominated for another forgettable song next year?
Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me In The Good Light
Mr Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Who Will Win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Who Should Win: “Mr Nobody Against Putin,” “Come See Me In The Good Light,” “The Perfect Neighbor”
Upset: “Come See Me In The Good Light”
Lowdown: We’ve talked to several voters who picked “Good Light.” The question is whether it can truly upset “The Perfect Neighbor,” a massive hit on Netflix, which a majority of voters have likely seen. If there is any pick we’re nervous about this year, it’s this one.
International Feature
“The Secret Agent” (Brasil)
“It Was Just An Accident” (France)
“Sentimental Value” (Norway)
“Sirat” (Spain)
“The Voice Of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
Who Will Win: “Sentimental Value”
Who Should Win: “Sirat”
Upset: “The Secret Agent” or “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Lowdown: Members love “Sentimental.” Nine nominations don’t lie, and in key categories such as Director, Screenplay, and three acting nominations. It dominated the European Film Awards and took the equivalent BAFTA honor. An upset is certainly possible though…
Animated Short Film
“Butterfly” (Sacrebleu Productions) Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
“Forevergreen” Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (National Film Board of Canada) Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“Retirement Plan” John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
“The Three Sisters” (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures) Konstantin Bronzit
Who Will Win: “Butterfly”
Who Should Win: “Butterfly,” “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
Upset: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” “The Three Sisters”
Lowdown: “Butterfly” is a masterpiece of technique and cinematic vision. It “should” win, but the stop-motion “Girl Who Cried Pearls” has its fans.
Live Action Short Film
“Butcher’s Stain” (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television) Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
“A Friend of Dorothy” Lee Knight and James Dean
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama” Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
“The Singers” (Netflix) Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Who Will Win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Who Should Win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Upset: “The Singers,” “A Friend of Dorothy”
Lowdown: “Two People Exchanging Saliva” is incredible. A genuine short-film auteur masterpiece. If it loses, they should blow the entire branch up. That being said, the familiar faces in “A Friend of Dorothy” may push it over the top.
Documentary Short Film
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO) Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
“Children No More: ‘Were and Are Gone'” (Sky) Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
“The Devil Is Busy” (HBO) Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
“Perfectly a Strangeness” (Second Sight Pictures) Alison McAlpine
Who Will Win: “All the Empty Rooms”
Who Should Win: “All the Empty Rooms”
Upset: “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
Lowdown: Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones‘ depiction of the long tail aftermath of gun violence in schools is a gut punch. “Armed Only with a Camera” is powerful, but hard to see it taking the prize.
The 2026 Academy Awards will be televised on Sunday, October 15, on ABC and Hulu beginning at 4 PM PT, 7 PM ET. Look for complete coverage on The Playlist.
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