Almost a year ago, Amazon MGM Studios put on its first CinemaCon presentation. The first since the venerable Hollywood brand was acquired by the Seattle-based tech giant in 2022. Jennifer Salke had just been axed, and the studio appeared to be behind in its long-term goal of getting its own international distribution division up and running. But Mike Hopkins, Head of Prime Video and Amazon MGM Studios. made a big commitment to the theatrical movie business, and that presentation was a stake in the ground for theater owners.
Of course, that first showcase was a bit bumpy. Some movies looked like bombs (“Mercy,” yep), some had terrible titles (“Crime 101,” sigh), there was an Oscar player that wasn’t (“After the Hunt,” we were all fooled), and a very early, rough look at a potential franchise tentpole (“Masters of the Universe,” which had finished filming mere days before). The movie that truly surprised, that made theater owners and the press on hand take notice, was “Project Hail Mary.”
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A version of this commentary first appeared in The Breakdown newsletter.
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The extended preview of the Phil Lord and Christopher Miller space epic screened that day was so impressive that many in the Caesar’s Place theater wondered why it was set for release 11 months later. Drop this baby in the summer or fall now. It had hit written all over it. In theory, the delay was because Amazon MGM wanted its global team up and running so they didn’t have to pay for a distribution partner (whoopsie, still not there yet). But, in hindsight, it also let the studio strategize a long-term marketing plan that appears to be working wonders this weekend. Especially after Thursday night previews delivered $12 million, the second biggest preview tally for a non-sequel, non-franchise movie since “It” in 2017.
Obviously, based on testing, the Amazon MGM team realized early on that they had a movie that played. Big time. Besides the traditional early marketing materials, they have screened it like crazy. And it all started with a big press and industry screening at the Grauman’s Chinese Theater, almost a full month before the movie hit theaters. Outside of a traditional festival debut and Warner Bros.’ confident early screening strategy for “One Battle After Another” in September, that’s almost unheard of for a big commercial spectacle of this sort. It appears to have worked. “Hail Mary” has earned great reviews, and tracking keeps ticking up and up. And, of course, Ryan Gosling has put on a charm show only he can pull off, hosting “SNL,” doing a semi-global tour, and a bunch of required talk shows.
That being said, over the past week, “Hail Mary” has gone from $50 to $60 to potentially $70 million to now whispers of $80 million domestic opening. Perhaps even more. International is a bigger question mark. There are signs China could deliver nicely, but right now, estimates are conservative at $30 million for overseas, even with most of the world going day and date. Granted, a $100-110 million global opening? That would be a massive start for a movie that is expected to have superb word of mouth and will enjoy a two-week window before “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” destroys the marketplace on April 1.
Even with a reported $190 million pricetag, this could be massive for Gosling (his biggest solo opening ever), Lord and Miller (their first live-action smash since “21 Jump Street” in 2012), and, obviously, Amazon MGM Studios. It’s been quite a while since the studio has had something to crow about or claim their space as a true, sixth major (sigh, that will be the fifth major soon).
Technically, Michael B. Jordan’s “Creed III” opened a year after Amazon acquired MGM, but it was greenlit by the previous regime (it still took in a superb $156 million in the U.S. and $276 million globally). The same for “Challengers,” one of the last Pam Abdy and Michael DeLuca greenlights before they headed to Warner Bros. That Zendaya tennis drama romance still found a way to $96 million worldwide, but didn’t break even in theaters. With the next James Bond movie still years away, “Hail Mary” becoming a real breakout would be a game-changer on multiple levels. Theater owners will believe Amazon MGM can deliver the goods beyond 007 movies, talent will take the studio more seriously with big projects, and the studio might actually develop a long-term brand with moviegoers. Imagine that.
Moreover, “Hail Mary” doesn’t appear to be a one-off wonder. Amazon MGM Studios’ upcoming slate includes another potential crowd pleaser in “The Sheep Detectives” on May 8; an inexpensive counterprogramming play with “Is God Is” on May 15; the aforementioned “Masters of the Universe” on June 5 (we’ve heard it’s good); David Leitch’s action compedy “How To Rob A Bank” on Sept 4; and, on Oct. 8, Dakota Johnson, Anne Hathaway and Josh Hartnett in “Verity,” another Colleen Hoover adaptation (which have all been very, very lucrative to date). Waiting in the wings undated is another Luca Guadagnino awards player, “Artificial,” starring Andrew Garfield, Monica Barbaro, Ike Barinholtz (as Elon Musk!) and Cooper Hoffman, among a long list of others (Luca can’t wiff on two movies in a row can he?) as well as Nicholas Stoller’s comedy “Judgement Day” will Will Ferrell, Zac Efron, and Regina Hall, just to name a few (we’re still assuming the later is going to theaters).
It’s unlikely that Amazon MGM Studios enjoys a creative and box office Warner Bros.-esque run over the next year. That happens maybe once in a decade, but they could end up not only making the division profitable but releasing some damn good movies, too. Considering the industry skepticism that a combined Paramount and Warner Bros. will be able to release 20 or more movies a year, let alone a combined 30 as promised, a strong player in Amazon MGM may be a godsend for the movie business. I mean, who isn’t gonna cheer that on?
Oh, and just wait till the Oscar buzz starts for “Hail Mary” in the weeks to come…
“Project Hail Mary” is now in theaters nationwide
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