It’s that time of year again. The moment when we step back after a long awards season and wonder what new Oscar rules are needed. Frankly, many in the awards world figured out what not to do for the 2025-2026 season, because several rules decreed in our last edition of this annual affair came to pass. Well, mostly.
Unlike the 2025 season, serious (emphasis on “serious”) contenders avoided the first U.S. theatrical release (limited or wide) dropping in January. The PGA and DGA Awards miraculously did not occur on the same night this season (whew). There were no notable contenders hampered by old social media posts that came back to haunt them (now, interview clips and public videos are a different issue entirely). And, notably, the field took “perceived” underdogs such as “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” very seriously (oh, did they).
That being said, some new distribution players made terrible TIFF and Venice gambles that simply didn’t pan out. Black Bear took Sydney Sweeney’s awards-season candidacy way too seriously with “Christy,” and Row K made a massive mistake, believing “Dead Man’s Wire” was an awards player, which it never was. At this point, A24’s acquisition of “The Brutalist” last year and Netflix’s pickup of “The Lost Daughter” in 2021 are the only real Venice or TIFF pickups (not premieres that surprised with critics and audiences like Amazon Studios’ “American Fiction”) this decade. And the only other pseudo player that made relative money at the box office was “The Last Showgirl,” a TIFF pickup for Roadside last year that earned some SAG Award and guild love (but still would have done better this season). That does tie into our first new rule, however…
Reminder: Don’t do it, little indie, don’t do it
This is more of a reminder to independent films looking for acquisition than to distributors looking to pick those players up. Finding the right home and the right release date is significantly more important than dropping during awards season. If a distributor presents a plan that’s a summer release with the chance for your filmmaker and company to show they made a profit, that’s more important than awards love. That may seem obvious, but critical acclaim can lead to awards fever and, all of a sudden, dumb choices are made (there is no cure for awards fever). A smart example of this – in theory – is Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite.” The movie rocked Sundance, has a shot at multiple Oscar nominations, but Wilde is all in on A24’s plan for a June drop. Let it be a summer word-of-mouth hit. Let the industry discuss it for months on end. Don’t let it get lost in the October or November deluge. Which dives into yet another new rule…
Earlier, Earlier, Earlier
Even if “One Battle After Another” hadn’t arrived on the scene with its September release date, “Sinners,” which was released in April, was right there. And your champion, “One Battle,” didn’t even make the traditional October 1st cutoff to win (it was a week earlier on Sept. 26). The old rule, which said your best shot at winning Best Picture was to drop in theaters between October 1 and November 30, may simply not apply anymore. The last Oscar Best Picture winner to open after November 1st was “Green Book,” on November 16th, 2018. If you want to make an impression with a membership that is now busier or out of home than the first part of this decade, earlier is simply the way to go. It was eyebrow-raising how many members were catching up with movies with days left in the voting process for phase two, let alone nominations. Moreover, countless fall screenings aside, the number of members with long lists of movies to see over the Thanksgiving or Christmas holiday was almost as surprising. By opening earlier, contenders now have a better shot of being seen in a multitude of ways (streaming, theaters, and no joke, airplanes). A festival berth and industry screenings are still ideal, but don’t hold till November. If you’ve got the goods, find the right release date and make some coin.
Reminder Rule: Outdoor, Outdoor, Outdoor
This is probably more of a remember rule than a new one, but this year, it popped. In Los Angeles, one of the absolute best ways to reach members is via outdoor billboards, bus shelters, and what’s known as “wildposting.” And one reason is that people who work in the industry are conditioned to actually look at them. It’s your business. You need to pay attention. Netflix has had an advantage by securing its own billboard network across LA (it still blows our minds that Disney or NBC Universal has not at least tried to duplicate this from a long-term cost-saving perspective). To be fair, almost everyone does some version of outdoor during FYC season. But this year, there was one Best Picture nominee that pulled in four nominations overall, using outdoor to its advantage. When your star, cough, Brad Pitt, is not that interested in actually doing a ton of on-the-ground campaigning for your film (even as a producer), you need to make an impact somehow. Especially for a movie that was loved by the industry, earned a positive critical reception, and was a massive global hit. It’s one thing to be able to have a great below-the-line campaign, which “F1” did, and that was key in landing its Best Picture nomination. But Apple also peppered Los Angeles with, arguably, more ads outside of Netflix than any other studio. It was partially timed to the film’s December release on Apple’s streamer, but it was also everywhere. Granted, we often cringe at Apple’s generic creative, but it worked. Even “Marty Supreme” got a ton of attention from its blimp, even if it was more for release purposes. Still, you gotta find a way to make an impact, and it’s often a cheap-ish, effective way to get members’ attention. It feels as though not enough distributors that can afford it are taking advantage.
If you want to win, get on Instagram
Anyone who’s been reading my Oscar coverage or The Breakdown Newsletter (and, hey, sign up) knows that I have made many comments about how if the fantastic Wagner Mora were on social media, he would have had a significantly better chance of winning Best Actor. Seriously. He also may have had a better chance of even getting a SAG nomination, and it’s always a cumulative game. There are so many Academy members and guild members on Instagram, and compared to other social media outlets, it’s often seen as the “safe” place for them to promote. It’s clearly very audio-visual friendly, and you can control your message more than on other social networks. There is also a long history of films using it to their advantage over the past decade (hello Jamie Lee Curtis and “Everything Everywhere All At Once”). But, for someone like Wagner, this was a bit of a missed opportunity. The Brazilian fans, if he had been online, would have coalesced around his posts and probably been the sort of army that Fernanda Torres guided like a hive queen for “I’m Still Here.” Granted, that didn’t get her an Oscar win, either, but it took her further than SPC’s traditional ground game certainly would have. Moura’s “Secret Agent” director, Kleber Mendonça Filho, was all over his own Insta account chronicling the long award season (including some wonderful shots of LA), but it wasn’t quite the same. Wagner has publicly said he does not want an online presence, and that’s understandable, but it’s something to note for future “underdog” contenders in the years ahead.
Convince members not to feel guilty
We have a problem, everyone. The Academy has convinced too many members that they really need to watch all of the nominees to vote in a category. I know what you’re thinking. This sounds ideal. Who doesn’t want as many voters to watch as many of the contenders as possible? But we cannot tell you how many members we spoke to who said they did not vote in a specific category because they’d only seen 4 out of 5 of the nominees. Listen, whether it’s the Television Academy, the Recording Academy, or AMPAS, that should be…fine. You shouldn’t have to see every single contender to decide that you want to vote for a candidate for a specific award. There has always been an honor system, which insinuated members watch all the nominees, but now the AMPAS screening hub pings members with reminders a bit too much. Prompts that make them feel too guilty might have swung the pendulum a little bit too intensely. We will never know, but we are genuinely curious how many people didn’t vote in the Documentary category because of this. How many people didn’t vote for Animated Feature? Should you really feel like you can’t vote for a film you loved or think is worthy if you missed one of the nominees? Do we really think members who missed out on all 10 Best Picture nominees decided not to vote? If The Academy doesn’t think there’s a problem with being this intense about it, that’s a red flag because they are verbalizing it in conversation with other members and the press. Because, as final voting began, every consultant seemed to panic about categories that should have been locks. Maybe that’s exciting for some, but in the long run, it appears to be discouraging participation overall, which is never a good thing.
Potential nominees need to stay…humble
Yes, insinuate away, but we’re not going to pile on to just pile on. Let’s talk generally, shall we? As an Oscar contender, there is nothing wrong with being slightly cocky about your performance, your work, or your film overall. Supporting it, rooting for it, campaigning for it. But it all has to be with a little bit of a wink. A nod to your peers that shows you’re only taking this seriously up to a point. If it goes on for an extended amount of time, and you don’t necessarily seem as humble about either your fellow nominees or seem thankful for your lucky career as a multi-million dollar talent, it can diminish any goodwill you may have generated from your performance. Also, projecting a new “I’m cooler than the rest of you” aesthetic when your original brand was something completely different is never a good thing. Those contenders may find themselves in the nomination circle, but rarely, if ever, win the big prize (strikingly so). Like any politician, Oscar contenders need to be relatable and seem accessible on some level. Now, pulling out that shtick to open a movie? For the box office? Whatever sells tickets works. Not for Oscar, though.
Only Netflix can pull off category fraud, it’s true
To be clear, this is a compliment to Netflix. The streamer is the only distributor over the past decade (or longer) that’s been able to consistently convince Academy members to vote for a candidate in the “wrong” category (Zoe Saldana, Anthony Hopkins). This year, there were two more examples of studios doing their best that, ultimately, did not pan out. You could make the argument that Paul Mescal may have had a better case as a Best Actor contender for “Hamnet” than for Supporting Actor. Especially as there was no evidence that the Academy didn’t love the movie (check that nomination haul in key categories). Not to mention Mescal landing SAG Actor Award and BAFTA Award nominations. The other case was a much tougher sell. “One Battle’s” Chase Infiniti was campaigned for Best Actress when she clearly should have been pushed for Supporting. Warner Bros.’ strategy made sense on paper. In a super competitive year, they wanted to make sure they landed at least one Supporting nomination and that neither Infiniti nor Teyana Taylor was snubbed. Taylor made it through, but Infiniti missed the cut. Could both have earned Supporting noms if given that push? Considering “One Battle” took Best Picture and, in an upset, won Casting, it appears so.
Now, a speed round:
Quick New Rule: Gothams and Spirits, you can fix this
We’re all for the non-gender-based awards, but one winner out of 10 or more nominees? This. Let the voters or committees vote to honor the top two out of the nomination field. It will get more talent to show up and make all those studios and distributors happier about selling tables. And frankly, it’s often warranted.
Quick New Rule: SAG Actor Awards vs. Actor Awards
It just makes so much more sense. Actor Awards still sounds too generic and like a fake awards show in an early ’00s romantic comedy. Would Fran Dresher have let this happen?
Quick New Rule: Move the Oscars Ceremony date
March 15 was way too late, and it was reflected in the drop in ratings. The telecast should be no later than the last week of February. Shoot, we’d love it if it dropped post-Super Bowl like the last ceremony with 20+ million viewers in 2020.
Quick New Rule: Start hunting for celebrity Q&A moderators earlier
Honestly, this affects my own livelihood, but nothing popped more this season than the slew, and we mean slew, of talent that stepped in to support films they loved, moderating post-screening Q&As. Plus, many of them were absolutely hilarious, er, we mean, informative, and truly popped on social media. Except for that one director who may not be that good at them, and perhaps volunteered a wee bit too much. Those in the know know.
Quick New Rule: Oscars start hunting for more out-of-the-box “star” presenters now
The Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA kicked the Oscars’ ass in terms of presenters. Sorry, it’s true. An earlier date may help with recruiting, but they either need a substantially better gift bag, a Met Gala red carpet moment that makes them want to attend, or a real incentive to make it to the Dolby Theater. A gaggle of influencers screaming at them on the red carpet ain’t gonna do it.
_____
At posting, The Academy has still not revealed the date for the 2027 Oscars, but the season should truly kick off in Cannes just eight weeks from now. It will arrive sooner than you think. In fact, that lineup drops in two weeks on April 9.
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Bluesky
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Threads
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Instagram
Follow Gregory Ellwood on TikTok
Sign Up For The Breakdown Newsletter
