The DGA Awards crowned Paul Thomas Anderson, the Oscars Luncheon went on without Sean Penn, and tons of talent have made their way to the Santa Barbara International Film Festival to pick up their fake awards and have fun on the red carpet. Yes, the second phase of the 2026 Oscar season is in full effect, and wait – time out – do we actually have a race for Best Picture? We just might, but let’s get to some unfinished business first. We are quite late in reviewing the state of the 2027 race after a slew of world premieres at the Sundance Film Festival just a few weeks ago.
No, it’s never too early for 2027.
READ MORE: Paul Thomas Anderson Takes 2026 DGA Award For ‘One Battle After Another’ [Complete List]
Sundance may have said goodbye to Park City (cheering), but it always has Oscars in its sights. After an off 2025, which still saw “A Real Pain’s” Keiran Culkin take Best Supporting Actor, the festival saw world premiere selection “Train Dreams” crack the Best Picture 10 last month. That’s nine Best Picture nominees over the past decade for Robert Redford’s legacy festival, including the now underrated 2022 winner, “CODA.” Throw in acting and screenplay nominees, and Sundance has consistently been a force with The Academy this century. And, of course, it has dominated the Best Documentary category for decades. Cannes, Venice, and Telluride can hype their narrative auteur debuts, but there is arguably no better festival for world premiere documentaries than Sundance. In fact, all five 2026 nominees debuted at Sundance in 2025.
We weren’t able to see one documentary this past festival, but the raves have been never-ending for “Once Upon A Time In Harlem,” which debuted in the Premieres section and was quickly acquired by Neon. It’s rare to say we already have an Oscar frontrunner before the current year’s trophy is handed out, but read the raves and weep. The U.S. documentary grand jury prize winner “Nuisance Bear,” as well as “Barbara Forever,” American Pachuco: The Legend of Luis Valdez,” “The Brittney Griner Story,” and “Who Killed Alex Odeh?” are also docs to watch over the next 11 months.
Narratively, things are slightly more dicey. Beth de Araújo’s “Josephine” won the grand jury U.S. dramatic award and the audience award, a rare double win, but still does not have distribution at posting. Moreover, as we teased in The Breakdown (may we suggest you subscribe), we know of four potential distributors who already passed. It has an incredible screenplay and Mason Reeves is fantastic, but a young actor has not earned an Oscar nomination since “Beasts of the Southern Wild’s” Quvenzhané Wallis in 2013. Gemma Chan and Channing Tatum are very good, but none of the mini-majors we spoke to thought they would be serious awards players. Someone will pick it up, it will have its supporters, but the consensus was that it has a tough box office and Oscar road ahead. Sorta wild for a Tatum movie, right?
Sony Pictures Classics smartly picked up “Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!,” a contemporary crowd-pleaser that could surprise. Don’t sleep on star Rinko Kikuchi here (this screams Globes player). Adrian Chiarella’s “Leviticus,” acquired by Neon, earned rave reviews and feels like an easy Gotham Awards and first-time DGA Award nominee. Can it be anything more? Maybe, but it also just might make some money for everyone involved.
We still think Alex Huston Fischer and Eleanor Wilson’s “Wicker” could be a genuine player. Olivia Colman is giving peak performance Olivia Colman, Alexander Skarsgard is superb, and, in theory, it’s an absolute lock for Hair and Makeup and Sound nominations. Notably, Peter Dinklage, Elizabeth Debicki, and Richard E. Grant are also fantastic. There is a talent pool here that audiences want to hear from that can campaign the movie big time, but some distributors are still scared off. Not only are only North American rights available, but it’s also the sort of movie that needs older arthouse audiences to trek to their local movie theater to see in person. That has been in short demand recently. If this were 2012? 2018? This flick would have been at the center of a bidding war. As of publication? In 2026? No deal…so far.
That’s also the current fate for Padraic McKinley’s “The Weight,” with Ethan Hawke, Noah Segan’s “The Oldest Living Pickpocket in New York,” starring standout John Turturro, and Josephine Decker’s prestige-ish romantic comedy “Chasing Summer,” with Iliza Shlesinger, which isn’t an awards movie, but damn, could do well at the box office.
That leaves Olivia Wilde’s buzzy “The Invite,” which A24 picked up in a bidding battle amongst Focus Features and Warner Bros.’ new, unnamed arthouse division. It might (emphasis on “might”) be too much of a chamber piece for a Best Picture nomination, but Adapted Screenplay (Rashinda Jones, Will McCormack) and Supporting Actress (Penelope Cruz) consideration are absolutely in the cards. And if it’s a substantial hit? The playing field expands.
So, no, it doesn’t look like the 2027 awards season race seriously took off as Sundance said goodbye to Utah. Perhaps things will change a year from now in Boulder. Dare to dream and, at worst, let’s all enjoy somewhat cheaper lodging options.
As for this year’s Best Picture race, there seems to be a consensus that “One Battle After Another” has the Oscar all locked up. Sure, PTA took DGA, but the PGA Award, SAG’s Actor Awards, and, yes, BAFTA Awards could shake things up as all are handed out before or during final voting. “Sinners” could easily win the PGA and is likely your SAG Ensemble winner. Moreover, “Hamnet” is a massive hit in the U.K. Do not discount its chances at taking the top prize across the pond, where it has outgrossed “One Battle” by $7 million and counting.
And let’s be real here. Not only should “Sinners” record-breaking nomination haul not be discounted, but neither should the fact that it has acting nominees in just as many categories as “One Battle,” and that includes the “surprise” Delroy Lindo nomination. We’re not saying Chase Infiniti missing out on Best Actress is a sign, but it’s not not a sign (again, only Netflix has proven they can pull off “category fraud” over the past decade, their peers are envious). Oh, and, sure there are Academy members who will tell you they feel they are “supposed” to vote for “One Battle,” but we’ve run into many who want to vote for “Sinners” and, frankly, a bunch of other films. Do not discount “Hamnet,” “Sentimental Value,” and “Secret Agent” from siphoning away votes for “One Battle.” You win with second-place votes, but you still gotta earn them.
If “One Battle” takes PGA and BAFTA, is it over? Likely, but as of right now…it’s most certainly not. So, keeping all that in mind, your latest Contender Countdown rankings just for kicks…
February 12, 2026
1 “One Battle After Another”
Is it “La La Land” or “Everything Everywhere All At Once”? I dunno, but I’m still hoping “Devil Wears Prada 2” doesn’t disappoint.
2 “Sinners”
It’s gonna be closer than you think…
3 “Hamnet”
There is a path to the win. Seriously.
4 “Marty Supreme”
We’re not saying this is Kevin O’Leary’s fault, but he sure hasn’t helped.
5 “Sentimental Value”
Stellan Skarsgard or bust. And it better be the former.
6 “The Secret Agent”
Wagner Moura is your dark-horse Best Actor winner.
7 “Frankenstein”
Great gowns, beautiful gowns.
8 “Train Dreams”
Still sad Joel Edgerton didn’t crack the Best Actor five. So deserving.
9 “Bugonia”
Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone are going to be considered an all-time pairing if they keep this up.
10 “F1”
Can you imagine if Brad Pitt had seriously campaigned? No, really.
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