For all those moviegoers convinced Sean Penn is winning Best Supporting Actor for “One Battle After Another,” not so fast. This Oscar season has a long way to go, and most of you have not seen Stellan Skarsgard in “A Sentimental Value” yet or Paul Mescal in “Hamnet,” two performances that could easily win. In fact, as controversial as it may seem, the legendary Swede is our one lock for a nomination at the moment. Yes, the Supporting Actor category is that packed.
Ready for another controversial take? Yes, Adam Sandler will likely receive the most attention from Netflix for his turn in “Jay Kelly,” but it’s his co-star, Billy Crudup, whose performance will resonate more with actors. Another film that has two actors vying for attention is “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” where Jeremy Strong, nominated this past January for “The Apprentice,” has gotten more pre-screening attention, but it’s recent Emmy-winner Stephen Graham with the more moving and impactful role.
Another “Battle” actor who could crack the five is one-time Oscar winner Benicio Del Toro, and Jonathan Bailey could get recognized the second time around in “Wicked for Good.” Delroy Lindo was snubbed in 2021 for “Da 5 Bloods.” Will he earn his first Oscar nod for “Sinners”? Akira Emoto delivers the best performance in “Rental Family,” his first Hollywood or American-produced film or television production. Can the legendary Japanese actor campaign enough to impact the race?
Outliers that deserve attention include “Train Dreams” star William H. Macy, “The History of Sound’s” Josh O’Connor, “After the Hunt’s” Michael Stuhlbarg, and another Stellan’s son, Alexander Skarsgard, who is fantastic in “Pillion.” Every one of those films is fighting for AMPAS voters’ attention in the digital screener pile. Can any of them break through? [Updated: October 7]
LOCKED
Stellan Skarsgard, “A Sentimental Value”
LIKELY
Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
IN THE MIX
Jonathan Bailey, “Wicked For Good”
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Akira Emoto, “Rental Family”
Stephen Graham, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”
Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon”
Jeremy Strong, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
LONGSHOTS
Idris Elba, “A House of Dynamite”
Jacob Elrodi, “Frankenstein”
Diego Luna, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”
William H. Macy, “Train Dreams”
Josh O’Connor, “The History of Sound”
Alexander Skarsgard, “Pillion”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “After the Hunt”
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
International Feature Film
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