Some awards observers and consultants were initially skeptical whether Zach Creeger’s critically acclaimed thriller “Weapons” was an awards movie. While a Best Picture nomination is a long shot, there is one category that is appearing more and more likely: Supporting Actress. And that would be a moment for Amy Madigan, who was last nominated 39 years ago for the long-forgotten “Twice in a Lifetime.” She’s not a lock, however.
READ MORE: Yes, “Weapons” Is An Awards Movie…For Now
The one expected nominee in this race is Ariana Grande for reprising her role as Glinda in “Wicked for Good.” She was previously nominated in January for “Wicked,” and her character arc in the second half of the musical adaptation should potentially be more heartbreaking. It’s a safe bet.
Then the battle begins with two “One Battle After Another” actresses: Chase Infiniti and Teyana Taylor, although the former could campaign for Lead Actress. Two actresses from “Sentimental Value” are also in the mix, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning. And while the latter has been passed over previously, the former delivers the more poignant performance. Will either film get two nominees in? It does happen more often than you think.
Also legitimately in the mix is Emily Blunt for the best performance in “The Smashing Machine.” Kirsten Dunst is as excellent as always in “Roofman,” as is Emily Watson in “Hamnet.” Will voters really forget Wunmi Mosaku in “Sinners”? Will Gwyneth Paltrow be a late surprise for the unseen “Marty Supreme”? Can Regina Hall land three “Battle” actresses in one category?
We’re not saying this is the most competitive acting category this season, but we’re not not saying it either. [Posted October 2]
LOCKED
Ariana Grande, “Wicked for Good”*
LIKELY
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
IN THE MIX
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine”
Kirsten Dunst, “Roofman”
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another”
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme”*
Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners”
Emily Watson, “Hamnet”
LONGSHOTS
Glenn Close, “Wake Up Dead Man”
Kerry Condon, “Train Dreams”
Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”
Margaret Qualley, “Blue Moon”
*not publicly screened at posting
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
International Feature Film
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Bluesky
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Threads
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Instagram
Sign Up For The Breakdown Newsletter
