Is this Warner Bros. year? Or will Focus Features finally nab the crown? WB toppers Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy have not only delivered one Best Picture contender in Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” but the former frontrunner in Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.” And, arguably, a third in Zach Cregger’s “Weapons.” Focus Features, which has a legendary library, has never won Oscar’s top prize. Could that change with Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet”? Whatever the case, and barring some unexpected scandal, those three films are pretty much locked as nominees. The rest of the field is more fluid.
READ MORE: “Hamnet” Wins TIFF 2025 People’s Choice Award
In theory, Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked for Good” and James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” are the next two likely nominees. Neither has screened, but both films would need a massive drop off in quality or scope to not make the cut. Is there a time when a Cameron “Avatar” movie won’t get nominated for Best Picture? Possibly, but we’re not convinced “Fire and Ash” is the beginning of that trend.
That leaves five slots and a lot of auteurs in the mix. We’d be shocked if Joachim Trier’s fantastic “Sentimental Value” didn’t make it. It was effectively the runner-up for the Palme d’Or, features incredible performances, and, oh yes, a ton of it is in English (always helps). Will Jafar Panahi’s stellar “It Was Just An Accident” be the fifth Palme d’Or winner to earn an Oscar nomination over the past six years? Possibly, but we’re not sure it’s as much a given as some believe. Yorgos Lanthimos, who had helmed two previous Best Picture nominees with star Emma Stone, is going for a third with “Bugonia.” Noah Baumbach has a very Hollywood story with “Jay Kelly,” which would be his second Best Picture nominee. Richard Linklater’s “Nouvelle Vague” won over many in Cannes and Telluride, and despite not being selected as France’s International Film submission, it still has a shot here. So does Park Chan-wook’s fantastic “No Other Choice,” assuming enough members see it. That argument can also be made for Clint Bentley’s Sundance standout “Train Dreams,” which Netflix will release in November.
Two unseen films likely in the mix are Josh Safdie’s intentionally late-arriving “Marty Supreme” (his Venice Film Festival-winning brother Benny also has a shot with “The Smashing Machine”) and Bradley Cooper’s “Is This Thing On?” The latter is closing the NYFF and would also be his third consecutive nomination in this category.
Hikari’s “Rental Family” and Scott Cooper’s “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” are two crowd-pleasers that may benefit from a strong box office. [Posted Sept. 24]
*Please note, films are listed alphabetically per grouping
LOCKED
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
EXPECTED BUT UNSEEN
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Wicked For Good”
ALMOST THERE
“Sentimental Value”
POSSIBLE
“Bugonia”
“Is This Thing On?”
“It Was Just An Accident”
“Jay Kelly”
“Marty Supreme”
“Nouvelle Vague”
“No Other Choice”
“Rental Family”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
“Train Dreams”
LONGSHOTS
“After the Hunt”
“A House of Dynamite”
“F1: The Movie”
“The Lost Bus”
“Frankenstein”
“Nuremberg”
“Roofman”
“The Secret Agent”
“The Smashing Machine”
“Song Sung Blue”
“Weapons”
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
International Feature Film
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Bluesky
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Threads
Follow Gregory Ellwood on Instagram
Sign Up For The Breakdown Newsletter
