The acting categories for the 2026 Oscar season are very much in flux. At posting, there is only one Best Actor nominee who’s a lock: Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle After Another.” The 2016 winner in this category for “The Revenant” will absolutely get in, but he’s actually not the frontrunner to win. Not yet, anyway.
Two other actors are likely nominees: Jeremy Allen White for “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” and Timothee Chalamet for “Marty Supreme.” The latter film just screened, and his candidacy is based on buzz about his performance and the movie, as well as his pedigree (he was just nominated last year for “A Complete Unknown“). Then things get much trickier.
In theory, “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan should make the cut, but will he campaign? Will Dwayne Johnson still campaign for “The Smashing Machine” after its disappointing box office? Can Daniel Day-Lewis surpass the initial critical response to “Anemone” upon his “I was not retired” return? Brendan Fraser is quite good in “Rental Family,” but was he even the film’s second-best performance? George Clooney is also notable in “Jay Kelly,” but his character almost becomes the villain by the end, and not in a good way. Jesse Plemons has a shot for “Bugonia,” but will the awards attention pivot to his co-star Emma Stone? Both Wagner Moura and Guillaume Marbeck are fantastic in Cannes standouts “The Secret Agent” and “Nouvelle Vague,” respectively, but will enough Acting branch members watch the movies? Channing Tatum delivers the best work of his career after “Foxcatcher” in “Roofman,” but will the movie get enough AMPAS traction? And like Chalamet, Will Arnett‘s leading role in Bradley Cooper’s “Is This Thing On?” has not screened yet (but will imminently).
Longshot players that deserve voting members’ attention include “No Other Choice’s” Lee Byung-hun, “Train Dreams'” Joel Edgerton, and “Highest 2 Lowest’s” Denzel Washington.” [Updated October 7]
LOCKED
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another
LIKELY
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”*
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine”
Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
IN THE MIX
Will Arnett, “Is This Thing On?”*
George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Anemone”
Brendan Fraser, “Rental Family”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Guillaume Marbeck, “Nouvelle Vague”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Channing Tatum, “Roofman”
LONGSHOTS
Lee Byung-hun, “No Other Choice”
Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”
Colin Farrell, “Ballad of a Small Player”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein”
Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung Blue”*
Matthew McConaughey, “The Lost Bus”
Paul Mescal, “The History of Sound”
Vahid Mobasseri, “It Was Just An Accident”
Josh O’Connor, “The Mastermind”
Tonatiuh, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”
Denzel Washington, “Highest 2 Lowest”
*not publicly screened at posting
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
International Feature Film
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