Oscars Shortlist Hints At Best Picture Nomination Surprises Including ‘Sirat’ And ‘Sinners’ Vs. ‘One Battle’ For The Win [Contender Countdown]

Hollywood may be slowly closing down for the holiday break, but Oscar season is in full force. Well, there are fewer screenings than normal this upcoming weekend, but the past few weeks have been intense, and it will be a sprint of epic proportions beginning on January 2nd. We haven’t revisited the Best Picture race in a few weeks because, frankly, there hasn’t been a genuine reason to. Now, after the Oscar shortlists dropped, there is much to discuss.

READ MORE: “Marty Supreme,” “Hamnet,” “Sinners” and “Sirat” Make First Casting Oscars Shortlist

Most of December has been dominated by news breaks from critics groups’ end-of-year awards announcements and nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice, which, as always, are wonderful marketing tools. They really don’t tell you anything about what the industry or AMPAS members are thinking. But, hey, we’re excited for a reason to tune into E! for the first time in a year, right? The shortlists, on the other hand, have been key indicators over the last year of what Academy members are thinking, even if it’s technically only below-the-line categories.

Last year, the shortlists were the first tease that “The Substance” and “Emilia Perez” had widespread AMPAS support. Three years ago, “All Quiet On The Western Front” shocked with five shortlist mentions (even Netflix didn’t see it coming). Four years ago, “Don’t Look Up” solidified its Best Picture nomination contention (some of us were skeptical) with four mentions.

This year, the biggest surprise was “Sirat.” The Cannes prize winner was expected to make the International Shortlist, but the rest? Kangding Ray’s Original Score was possible, but unclear in a super-competitive year (even Michael Giacchino was snubbed for two films). Cinematography? Sound? And Casting? Honestly, jaw-dropping and, frankly, a remarkable testament to the voting body’s, well, taste.

Casting also saw “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” earn mentions, which was a surprise to many, but shouldn’t have been. We spoke to another contender who made the list this week for a future interview on The Playlist, “Wicked For Good’s” casting director Bernard Telsey, and when asked about how three international films landed among the ten, his reaction was akin to “Well, of course.” Casting directors see more plays, more television, more films, and attend more festivals, scouting for talent, than almost anyone else in the business. A majority of that branch may be based in the U.S. and U.K., but as the years progress, they may end up with some of the more cinephile and cosmopolitan selections of their peers. Yes, Writer’s Branch, you may need to step your game up.

Speaking of Jon M. Chu‘s movie musical, any concern over its chances of repeating the first part’s Best Picture nomination may have been alleviated with the shortlists. “Wicked For Good” earned eight mentions in the seven categories it was eligible for, including two Original Song selections. It simply couldn’t have done any better.

The other big player was “Sinners.” The breakout Warner Bros. title also landed eight mentions, including two Original Song selections. That compares to fellow WB stablemate, and the current frontrunner, “One Battle After Another,” which took five mentions. In theory, “One Battle” could have made the Visual Effects shortlist, but the studio isn’t sweating that miss. “One Battle” is expected to land at least three acting nominations and could earn four (or even five). One in every category. “Sinners” is likely guaranteed at least one acting nomination, but could earn three. How those nominations play out may tell us where the acting branch, the largest segment of the AMPAS voting body, is leaning.

It should also be noted that Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” was right behind “Sinners” and “Wicked for Good” with six mentions. The only category it didn’t make was Original Song, which it didn’t qualify for. We still think it’s more of a mini-series than a movie, but Del Toro is the new Clint Eastwood circa 1992-2014. The Academy adores him. It’s so in (so is another Netflix title, “Train Dreams”).

Before we jump into the rankings, we have to address a potential history-making moment. The last time a movie studio or domestic distributor landed three Best Picture nominees was in 1975, when “Chinatown,” “The Conversation,” and eventual winner “The Godfather: Part II” were among the five nominees. Since the expansion of the category in 2010, numerous studios, including Paramount, Netflix, and “no one says its name publicly anymore,” The Weinstein Company, have attempted the trifecta. In 2026, NEON is on the precipice of having some combination of “Sentimental Value,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sirat,” and Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just An Accident,” somehow make the 10. Will it actually happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Keeping all that in mind, the current state of the Best Picture race with, yes, a three-way-tie for 10th.

1 “One Battle After Another”
Feels inevitable unless…

2 “Sinners”
…Ryan Coogler’s masterwork gets more second-place votes?

3 “Hamnet”
Still lurking. Still breaking hearts.

4 “Marty Supreme”
It’s going to be a really nice hit for A24.

5 “Sentimental Value”
Those who love it, love it.

6 “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Does it matter if it only tops out at $1.3 billion? Nah, nominations will be out way before then.

7 “Train Dreams”
Telluride and NYFF are really going to regret not selecting this one. Like, Julie, we need to talk.

8 “Frankenstein”
Guillermo can’t lose.

9 “Wicked for Good”
Everyone knows Ariana changed publicists, right?

10 “Sirat”
Oliver Laxe is somewhere in Spain, wondering what on earth is going on.

10 “The Secret Agent”
If only Wagner Moura were on Instagram (if you know, you know).

10 “It Was Just An Accident”
Honestly, a bit worried about Jafar Panahi keeping the Palme d’Or nomination streak going.

13 “F1”
Imagine if they pushed the pedal to the metal in November.

14 “No Other Choice”
A great, great movie. NEON may just have too many contenders.

15 “Bugonia”
Still has its fans.

16 “Jay Kelly”
Netflix will never, ever give up. Still has a puncher’s chance, I guess. That Casting shortlist omission wasn’t a good sign though.

17 “Weapons”
Have enough members watched it? I’m not so sure.

18 “The Testament of Ann Lee”
If any movie can benefit from the stay-at-home virtual screener watch marathon that most members endure, er, entertain during the holidays, it’s this one.

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