Even with reviews that paint “Terminator: Dark Fate” as the best ‘Terminator’ sequel since the classic ‘T2: Judgment Day,’ it appears that the franchise, as a whole, is officially terminated. (Did you expect to get through this box office report without one termination pun? Come on!)
Though it did debut at the top of the box office, the weekend domestic total for “Terminator: Dark Fate” is abysmal, earning only an estimated $29 million. This would be soft for any film that cost more than $100 million to produce, but considering the reported budget of ‘Dark Fate’ sits at $185 million, debuting anywhere less than $50 million is terrible. No matter how well the film does in the coming weeks, if it somehow rebounds with word of mouth (a B+ CinemaScore doesn’t really suggest that it will), it appears that “Terminator: Dark Fate” is just destined to be yet another nail in the coffin of the franchise, with the last rites being read as we speak.
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Overseas, the film has been doing equally awful. Though it debuted soft in a few territories last weekend, this frame saw ‘Dark Fate’ debuting all around the world, most importantly in China. However, the film only earned just over $28 million in the Middle Kingdom, which is far below expectations. Overall, the film earned $73 million internationally over the past three days. After everything is said and done, the current worldwide total for the latest ‘Terminator’ film sits at $124 million. Some reports have the break-even for ‘Dark Fate’ sitting somewhere around $480 million. And sorry, this debut means the film is most likely going to end well below those numbers.
We can fully expect some insider sources spreading the news about what might have gone wrong with the film, but unlike previous ‘Terminator’ sequels, ‘Dark Fate’ is the one that was supposed to fix the franchise, bringing back James Cameron in a bigger role and wiping the slate clean of the previous post-‘T2’ films. However, it just appears that fans are just not interested in a franchise that has had three subpar films in a row (and “subpar” is perhaps being generous).
Though there were reports of a tough editing process for the film, there hasn’t been much discussion about the film struggling during production or at any stage before it came to the big screen. The early marketing of the film, focusing on the return of Linda Hamilton’s Sarah Connor, seemed to create some solid buzz. And as mentioned before, the early reviews were actually pretty positive. Unless there’s something that’s just not obvious, it appears that fans are just done with the franchise. And when it comes to intellectual property, good films can fix bad films. Reboots can fix problems and kickstart a franchise. But a moviegoing public that just doesn’t care anymore? Well, that just might be the darkest fate of them all.
So, where does Paramount go with this franchise? Well, it’s important to know that the rights for the franchise are likely going to be up in the air in the future. However, it’s highly unlikely that any studio is going to sink another $150+ million into making a new film without something changing. And really, after bringing back Linda Hamilton, there aren’t too many tricks left.
As a fan (and yes, I actually enjoyed ‘Dark Fate,’ despite its clear desire to replicate that ‘T2’ glory), all that I can hope for is that the franchise is either put to rest or something drastically changes moving forward. Granted, with the importance of IP in 2019, it’s unlikely we’ve seen the last of ‘Terminator.’ Perhaps a return to TV is in order. (‘The Sarah Connor Chronicles’ is actually pretty great, especially given how everything else has been either downright terrible or just lackluster.) Or maybe, we need a back-to-basics approach to the material? I’m normally not for just giving everything the Blumhouse model, but what makes ‘Terminator’ so great is the simplicity of the story and action and somewhere along the line, relying on so much CGI and huge set pieces seems to have led the franchise astray. But I digress.
This weekend was also pretty bad for Edward Norton and his two-decades-in-the-making directorial effort, “Motherless Brooklyn.” Despite a big marketing campaign and its clear awards aspirations, ‘Brooklyn’ just wasn’t able to excite filmgoers and debuted with only $3.65 million in almost 1,400 locations. The only positive news for Norton’s new film is the fact that these sorts of dramas tend to stick around for weeks, as the target audience (folks 40+) don’t always rush out to theaters right away to check out films. But at this point, we shouldn’t expect “Motherless Brooklyn” to be some breakout hit.
Of all the new releases, the best showing (relatively speaking) came from the biopic “Harriet,” starring Cynthia Erivo. With solid reviews (72% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the best possible CinemaScore of A+, the opening of $12 million is pretty great. With a reported budget of only $17 million, it’s clear that “Harriet” will become profitable eventually, especially if word-of-mouth is as solid as the CinemaScore indicates.
In limited release, it’s important to look at the three films that fell just outside of the top 10. At #11, Bong Joon-ho’s “Parasite” expanded to 461 theaters and earned an impressive $2.63 million. That film was followed by Taika Waititi’s WWII satire, “Jojo Rabbit,” which played in only 256 theaters and earned $2.4 million. And coming in at #13, Robert Eggers’ “The Lighthouse” continued its strong run in 978 theaters and a solid $2 million weekend.
Next weekend, theaters are going to be incredibly crowded with films like “Doctor Sleep,” “Playing with Fire,” “Midway,” “Last Christmas,” and “Better Days” all getting wide releases. The latter film is actually a recent Chinese release that has been doing incredibly well in its home country and could find an audience and surprise folks over here.
Meanwhile, after 5 weeks in theaters, “Joker” only dropped -27.7% and was number two at the box office, a terrific and impressive feat. The Warner Bros. film has nearly grossed $300 million domestically and has hit $939 million worldwide, making it the highest-grossing R-Rated movie by quite the margin (nearly $150 million). Considering its $56 million budget, this is a massive win for WB and director Todd Phillips and “Joker” will likely be not only the most profitable superhero movie of all time, but likely one of the most profitable films ever. At this rate, and with the hold it has in North America, plus a Best Actor nomination in the bag for Joaquin Phoenix, and maybe even re-release during awards season, $1 billion definitely looks plausible.
Here’s the entire domestic top 10 for November 1 to November 3:
1. Terminator: Dark Fate – $29M (Debut)
2. Joker – $14M ($299.6M Overall)
3. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – $12.2M ($84M)
4. Harriet – $12M (Debut)
5. The Addams Family – $8.5M ($85M)
6. Zombieland: Double Tap – $7.4M ($59M)
7. Countdown – $5.9M ($17.8M)
8. Black and Blue – $4M ($15M)
9. Motherless Brooklyn – $3.65M (Debut)
10. Arctic Dogs – $3.1M (Debut)