“Free Solo” isn’t just the biggest hit, but it’s had a ton of support from AMPAS members. “RBG” is also a substantial art-house hit. That and Academy love for its subject, Ruth Badger Ginsberg, could give it an edge, but most voters will see “Solo” as the more cinematic choice and that might be the difference. [Updated Feb. 12]
Predictions
1. “Free Solo” – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill
2. “RBG” – Betsy West and Julie Cohen
3. “Minding the Gap” – Bing Liu and Diane Quon
4. “Hale County This Morning, This Evening” – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim
5. “Of Fathers and Sons” – Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert
More predictions:
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film
Editor-at-Large Gregory Ellwood is one of the entertainment industry's most respected journalists and critics. Based in Los Angeles, he's the only current awards expert who previously worked on Oscar campaigns at a major movie studio. Over the years, he has written for the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Vox, among others. He also co-founded the entertainment news site HitFix, which spawned a legion of influential Emmy and WGA Award-winning alumni.
