As if there was any doubt, Bradley Cooper‘s directorial debut, “A Star is Born,” is ready for its Oscar spotlight. The fourth incarnation of the tale is refreshingly grounded with an incredible lead performance by Cooper, gorgeous cinematography by Matthew Libatique, a very good leading lady debut by Ms. Gaga and an abundance of potential Best Original Song contenders. The Warner Bros. release already wowed Venice and will likely send Toronto into overhype mode after its North American debut on Sunday. Believe that hype though. This movie is a box office hit and a legit Best Picture nominee. Something WB has a lot of experience navigating this decade (“Argo,” “Gravity,” “Mad Max: Fury Road”).
Breaking it down, “A Star is Born” should absolutely find itself buzzed about as a contender to win Best Picture. At this point, with almost all the major expected players having already screened in some capacity (Adam McKay‘s “Untitled Dick Cheney Film” being the lone, true unknown), there is no real frontrunner. “Roma,” “The Favourite” and “First Man” seem like the only other expected nominees that could pull it off. There will be a lot of wannabe pundits attempting to anoint “Star is Born” as the frontrunner after its TIFF premiere (you know who you are), but breathe. As an experienced awards consultant noted to me over the weekend, “let’s not put the cart before the horse.”
As for Best Actor, there are very few locks for a nomination at this point, but you can pencil in Cooper for one of the final five slots. He’s arguably never been better and it will be very hard to imagine his peers ignoring him in this category. Best Actress is another situation entirely. Lady Gaga has a shot for a nomination along with at least eight other contenders (and that doesn’t even take into account the fact “The Favourite” trio situation still doesn’t feel truly worked out as of yet). Assuming the film is judged in the Comedy or Musical categories at the Golden Globes (and that’s a significant assumption frankly), Gaga is a lock to win the Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Globe. If the film is deemed a drama she should earn a nod, but might not find herself in the winner’s circle. On the acting side, Sam Elliott feels like the sort of performance that could swing a Supporting Actor Oscar nod, especially if the film becomes a major sensation. And with other strong supporting work from Dave Chappelle and Andrew Dice Clay “Star” seems an easy SAG Best Ensemble nominee (although we’re already beating the drum that Shangela and Willam Belli deserve to be on that SAG cast submission list).
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Looking at the Best Director field there is likely only one sure nominee at this point, Alfonso Cuaron for “Roma.” Cooper has an excellent shot (and the fact he’s already screened for so many key members of the branch doesn’t hurt), but like Best Actress, we have too many worthy nominees at this point to deem anyone else a sure thing. One of Cooper’s smartest decisions was hiring Matthew Libatique as his Director of Photography. Libatique was previously nominated for “Black Swan” and the versatile Cinematographer has crafted some truly inspired imagery for Cooper and his editor Jay Cassidy (also a Best Editing contender) to work with. Libatique will absolutely be in the Best Cinematography discussion.
Best Production Design (Karen Murphy) and Best Costume Design (Erin Benach) are possible while you can book Sound Editing and Sound Mixing nods (or, at worst, the music friendly Mixing category). Adapted Screenplay is in the mix, but it’s another competitive category and despite the presence of Oscar winner Eric Roth among the screenwriting team it may be too much to ask. But, again, these are still early days.
Warner Bros. and the “Star” team have an abundance of riches in what they decide to submit for Best Original Song. No decisions have been made and it wouldn’t be surprising if they (smartly) paid attention to which songs potentially charted once the album is released.
It’s only Sept. 5 and we’ve got a long way to go, but isn’t it sort of refreshing one of the most Oscar-hyped movies of the entire year lived up to the hype? You’d almost think some of us had good sources or something…
“A Star is Born” opens nationwide on Oct. 5.
