After a historic run of Cannes films killing it at the Oscars, the spotlight once again returned to la Croissette to see which auteur features will find love with the Academy. Last year, both “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” earned Best Picture nominations, with the latter snagging the International Film trophy. All in all, the 2025 Cannes Film Festival saw 19 nominations reflected in the 2026 Academy Awards. This year may not match that incredible tally, but it should still be a respectable figure.
Before diving into this year’s premiere class, a reminder that “Project Hail Mary” is already in the Best Picture nomination mix. Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “The Digger,” Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine,” Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning,” Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune Part Three,” and David Fincher’s “The Adventures of Cliff Booth” (now coming to IMAX theaters in a big way) will be front and center. There’s also Todd McCarthy’s “The Statement,” Tony Gilroy’s “Behemoth!,” Andrew Haigh’s “A Long Winter,” Sian Hedder’s “Being Heumann,” Jessie Eisenberg’s “Untitled,” Georgia Oakley’s “Sense and Sensibility,” Robert Eggers’ “Werwulf,” and Fernando Meirelles’ “Here Comes The Flood” to consider.
While some of these titles may fade away, some won’t. And, it’s also only the end of May. A lot more contenders can join the party. So, a word of caution when considering this year’s Cannes class. Let’s all breathe, because we’re not sure there is a legit “Anora,” “Parasite,” “Sentimental Value,” or even Academy-friendly “Emilia Perez” 100% among them. At least, not yet.
It goes without saying that “Fjord” winning the Palme was a big deal for Neon. It gives the Norwegian-set melodrama a chance at making headway outside of the International Film category. A ton of it is in English, and stars Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan have received acting nominations over the past two years. That doesn’t hurt. Reinsve has an outside shot, but we’re not sure there is a big enough performance in the movie from either or Stan to get a supporting nomination. Director and writer Cristian Mungiu can campaign for Original Screenplay and Director, but it will all depend on how the movie lands stateside. If you know his films or have seen a good chunk of Eastern European cinema, it’s all very familiar. Then again, most AMPAS members haven’t. The question is whether they are down for another international drama that spends a lot of time with lawyers and courtrooms in its third act. The good news for Neon is that taking the Palme will at least get a ton of members to watch. No one should assume “Fjord” is a lock for a Best Picture nomination because of the Palme, however (just look at Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just An Accident” last year).
Keeping that in mind, there have been a minimum of two non-English nominees almost every year this decade, and right now we’d hold a second slot for Best Director winner Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland.” Assuming Mubi spends correctly on a campaign and legit theatrical release, the post-WWII drama could also see Sandra Huller in the Best Actress mix, and Hanns Zischler trying to crack Supporting Actor. It’s an Original Screenplay nominee contender, and a major player in Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Editing, and Original Score. Don’t ignore this one.
The other Cannes international contender that probably has a better shot at a Best Picture nomination than “Fjord” (yep, we said it) is Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi’s “La Bola Nega (The Black Ball).” The duo tied for Best Director with Pawlikowski, which is a massive compliment when Chloe Zhao and Park Chan-wook are on the jury. The movie got strong reviews from American critics (myself included), but is going to play with audiences and in industry screenings. This one’s a tearjerker with an impressive screenplay and a scene-stealing small role for Penelope Cruz, who, thanks to the new Academy rule, could be looking at being the first actress to get nominated in the same category for two different performances (“The Black Ball” and Olivia Wilde’s “The Invitation”). Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Editing, Casting, and Original Score will all be Netflix nomination priorities. The big question is whether it is selected as Spain’s International Film submission, but more on that in a minute.
James Gray’s “Paper Tiger,” which was not invited to the closing awards ceremony despite positive reviews, is a borderline Best Picture nominee contender. You know that New York Film Festival attendees and critics will overreact, er, embrace it, which will fuel all sorts of Best Picture nom talk. The real play, however, is Scarlett Johansson, who is a legit Supporting Actress contender and, potentially, Adam Driver for a Best Actor or Supporting Actor nomination, depending on what category he submits in. Another Neon pickup, it should also be in contention for Original Screenplay and Original Score.
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Another film snubbed by the jury was Ira Sachs’ “The Man I Love,” but star Rami Malek should be a regular in the Best Actor conversation. That film’s awards season fortunes are very dependent on whatever distributor picks it up (and can afford a top-tier campaign). Something tells us Sony Classics is waiting in the wings…for the right price.
Among the other Cannes award winners, we’re not sure the stellar boys from Lukas Dhont’s “Coward” have a shot in the acting races, but, at worst, the movie is an easy International Film shortlist player. Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto are sublime in Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a Sudden,” but we’re also not convinced they can break through once the season begins. Following the success of Hamaguchi’s last serious awards play, “Drive My Car,” Neon will campaign “Sudden” for Best Picture pretty hard. That being said, the movie was more polarizing on the ground than the reviews would lead you to believe.
Also, it looks like Spain may have a tough choice when it comes to its 2027 International Film Submission. Out of Cannes alone, Spain has three major films in competition to consider: Pedro Almodovar’s “Bitter Christmas,” the Javis’ “Las Bola Negra” and Rodrigo Sorogoyen’s “The Beloved.” None of the films won the Palme d’Or, which means Spain’s committee didn’t get an assist with the new automatic submission berth for the Cannes winner. Almodovar’s films have been nominated in this category three times and won in 2000 for “All About My Mother.” “Bitter” received positive but not glowing reviews, and even with SPC’s legendary on-the-ground campaigning, it would not be a lock for the five. Netflix already went through this scenario last year when France selected “It Was Just An Accident” over Richard Linklater’s “Nouvelle Vague.” We’re hoping this doesn’t give them PTSD. “The Beloved,” which has a willing Best Actor campaigner and contender in Javier Bardem, does not have a U.S. distributor yet, but that could influence Spain’s decision (it also has a similar storyline to the last winner, “Sentimental Value,“ which might hurt it with AMPAS members who participate in the voting process). Our money is still on “The Black Ball,” but anything could happen.
Speaking of the International Film Oscar, there are several premieres at this year’s festival that have a good shot at being their country’s submission. Uncertain Regard Prize winner “Congo Boy” may represent Congo, “Coward” feels like a lock for Belgium, and “Fatherland” should be Germany or Poland’s submission (likely the former). Japan will have “Nagi Notes” and, potentially, “All of a Sudden” to choose from (Koreeda’s “Sheep in the Box” is not happening). Norway should select “Fjord,” but that’s not a given now that it is automatically submitted by winning Cannes. Kosovo could submit Critics Week favorite “Dua,” Costa Rica may make a rare submission with “Forever Your Maternal Animal,” and Rwanda could be a first-timer with Camera d’Or winner, “Ben’Imana.” In theory, Bulgaria would pick Valeska Grisebach‘s Jury Prize winner, “The Dreamed Adventure.” Austria is potentially a landing spot for “Gentle Monster” (Netflix is hoping so), and Latvia may be where “Minatour” finds a home. Meanwhile, France has no clear frontrunner whatsoever, and Italy may be looking to Venice for its player. Fun times.
That leaves us to the biggest wildcard of Cannes, “Club Kid.” Jordan Firstman‘s directorial debut played like gangbusters in the Un Certain Regard section and earned pretty damn near rave reviews. Even before we caught it late in the fest, however, everyone you spoke with would always preface it as “commercial.” And, truth be told, A24 outbidding a slew of competitors for it demonstrates that potential. However, it is a legitimate tearjerker and super funny with auteur cinematography from Emmy winner Adam Newport-Berra (who also did “The Invite” and “The Last Black Man in San Francisco”) and a grounded performance from Firstman, who will easily be in the mix for Spirit Awards and Gotham Awards nominations. He should also be in play for a DGA First Feature nom and some WGA Award love. And depending on how competitive the Oscar for Original Screenplay is, he has a shot there (on second thought, it looks dicey for everyone). But if it’s loved enough, could The Academy embrace it even more? Ponder.
In the meantime, enjoy the summer, get ready for “The Odyssey” and “The Invite,” and if you’re an Emmy voter, make sure you watch Riz Ahmed’s “Bait” and that stellar season finale of “The Comeback.” Oscar season will truly begin a little over three months from now when the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festival onslaught begins. We’re already on the hunt for a new suit jacket…
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