Welcome back to Oscar land, everyone. Hope you enjoyed the offseason. This year we’ve got a big surprise for you! The first three festivals – Venice, Toronto and TIFF – are finally over and we barely have a frontrunner. That’s right, it’s the third week of September and we can only crown Noah Baumbach’s “Marriage Story” as a pseudo-frontrunner. If you’re a fan, don’t take that the wrong way. The Netflix film is phenomenal, but it’s simply not a slam dunk when it comes to taking the Best Picture Academy Award. Well, at least not yet and that’s the topic of conversation for our first Contender Countdown column of the season.
The good news is that “Marriage Story” played great at Telluride – the festival where actual AMPAS members see movies – but it was Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” that was the talk of the picturesque Colorado town. Baumbach’s movie then walked away from the Venice Film Festival empty-handed while Todd Phillips‘ polarizing “Joker” took the prestigious Golden Lion. Toronto saw more strong reviews from the second-tier North American media, but Taika Waititi’s crowd-pleasing “Jojo Rabbit” won the People’s Choice Award, even after TIFF tried to add more screenings of “Marriage” and “Parasite” to help those movies win.
Of course, “Marriage” does have a lot going for it. It features incredible performances from stars Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson as well as an ensemble featuring nomination worthy turns from Laura Dern, Julie Hagerty, Alan Alda, and Ray Liotta. It will also play superbly on screener or Netflix itself which wasn’t exactly the best medium for Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” last season. It’s still a relationship movie, though. It, arguably mind you, feels small. There is no underlying political, historical or social cause powering it. The movie is slightly about the Hollywood industry, per se, but Baumbach demonstrates he isn’t exactly a huge fan of Los Angeles (let’s see if that matters as the season goes on, it’s been mentioned by Angelinos who’ve seen it). But at this moment it’s also the most critically acclaimed film of the year (95 on Metacritic) and could easily win the NYFCC and/or National Board of Review (something tells us LAFCA will go with “Parasite”). The film will also have support from a ton of branches. It will play. But the last movie to win in this vein was “Terms of Endearment”? Maybe you could make an argument for “Rain Man” or “American Beauty?” Obviously, it’s been a while.
Complicating matters is that there doesn’t seem to be another frontrunner clamoring to the front of the pack. We know AMPAS members love Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” but enough for a Best Picture win? Is Lulu Wang’s “The Farewell” too small to be a consensus no. 1 or no. 2 pick? Can the Palme d’Or winning “Parasite” become the first non-English language film to take Oscar’s top prize? If “Roma” couldn’t pull it off, could “Parasite”? Or will Jay Roach’s “Bombshell” be AMPAS’ cathartic picture about the #MeToo movement that takes the prize? Will Sam Mendes and Roger Deakins’ “1917” be the first war film to win since “The Hurt Locker”? Will Netflix’s other potential nominee, Fernando Meirelles’ “The Two Popes,” be the crowd-pleaser that becomes the easy pick? Or will Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman” become the decades-spanning epic that blows AMPAS away? There are just too many variables and moving pieces at the point to crown a “true” frontrunner. But if you’re Netflix, having three potential winners ain’t a bad place to be.
Keeping all this in mind…
Note: These rankings are currently in regards to the best chance for a nomination. We’ll switch to winner rankings likely in December.
September 17, 2019
1. “Marriage Story”
At least most of the town still sees it as an underdog. That’s a good thing at this stage.
2. “Ford v Ferrari”
Critics have been less enthusiastic than many suspected. AMPAS will be. Certainly for a nod.
3. “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Could this be the Tarantino film to finally go all the way?
4. “Bombshell”
No critics or media have seen publicly, but the word is very, very good.
5. “The Irishman”
Don’t bet against Marty. Even in this crowded field.
6. “Parasite”
You can lose momentum in an instant. NEON and CJ Entertainment need to keep their foot on the pedal and frame it as the Best Picture nominee it is.
7. “1917”
A well-educated hunch.
8. “The Farewell”
Movies that emotionally touch the Academy have an advantage. A24 needs to remind members and get the thousands who have likely not seen it yet to watch that screener.
9. “Jojo Rabbit”
Searchlight got a massive PR boost after “Rabbit” won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. Now it gets harder.
10. “Judy”
That note about “The Farewell?” It applies to “Judy” too. Those who have seen it love it even for its faults (none of which are star Renee Zellweger, mind you). That’s rare for an Oscar contender.
ALMOST THERE
“The Two Popes”
Its strength is how it plays in a crowded theater. Will it seem too small on screener or on its home streamer, Netflix?
“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
If the much-needed message moves an ample number of members it could surprise.
“Hustlers”
STX has to pivot and go after women voters who understand just what Lorene Scarfia pulled off more than anyone.
“Harriet”
It’s better than many think, but is that good enough?
“Little Women”
Is it just a prestige commercial player or something truly special? We’ll know more soon.
“Waves”
A24’s best shot is with “The Farewell.” This one would need a major groundswell to breakthrough.
“A Hidden Life”
There are fans out there. Will a sufficient number of them be in The Academy?
“The Lighthouse”
This is likely just a Rob and Willem play. Likely.
“Ad Astra”
If only it had gone to TIFF. If only it had gone to Telluride. Might be in a very different position right now.
“Just Mercy”
This is likely just a Jamie and Rob play. Likely.
“Dark Water”
Word is Ruffalo is fantastic. Is the movie more than just his performance?
“Rocketman”
If “Bohemian Rhapsody” hadn’t come out last year Dexter Fletcher‘s real baby would be a thing. Will Paramount give it a proper awards season push?
“Knives Out”
The movie plays like gangbusters. Will AMPAS members see it more than a smart Original Screenplay?
“Us”
Critically acclaimed, major box office hit, follow up to Jordan Peele’s Oscar-winning “Get Out.” Why isn’t it part of the conversation?
“Joker”
Anything is possible, right?
“Uncut Gems”
This is likely just an Adam play. Likely.
“Cats”
“Memory, all alone in the moonlight, I can dream of the old days, I was beautiful then, I remember the time I knew what happiness was, Let the memory live again…”
More Oscar predictions
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Director