TELLURIDE – For those who have not trekked to the Telluride Film Festival it may sound like an annoyingly repetitive mantra, but this annual Labor Day fest is pretty much where Oscar dreams are born. Granted, “Green Book’s” Best Picture win in February gave TIFF a much-needed pr boost as an awards season stop (something they cling to publicly a bit too much for a tier A festival), but it still cannot match the number of Academy members annually on hand in this picturesque Colorado town. They are everywhere. They are in line in front of you, sitting next to you at a 9 AM screening and even waiting in line for the restroom with you (and I’m not even referring to my multiple encounters with Bill Gates, either). Moreover, they end up as the soothsayers who return to LA (mostly) to spread the word to their fellow Academy members about one film or another. That’s why stars and executives annually hop in private jets from Venice to make it to Colorado in time and endure the combination of jet lag and high altitude adjustment for a quick double bill. Because the truth is, if you can’t win over this audience your awards season hopes are pretty much dashed (neverending thoughts and prayers for “Inside Llewelyn Davis” and “Downsizing”).
READ MORE: 2019 Telluride Film Festival Preview: 9 Most Anticipated Movies
Happily, for all involved, as the attendees slowly made their way home this year saw little Oscar roadkill. The winners were slightly obvious and/or expected based on industry buzz everyone has been hearing for months, but there was one title that showed more potential than many were expecting (if you weren’t paying attention of course). Keeping all that in mind…
Renee Zellweger, you’re a winner baby
Listen, Rupert Goold’s “Judy” has some narrative issues, but one thing everyone can agree on is that Renee Zellweger is over the moon as the legendary Judy Garland. Yes, Zellweger sometimes still seems more Zellweger than Garland, especially in the early scenes, but as the film progresses she slowly starts to disappear in the role. And her performances as Garland, where she’s singing in the icon’s trademark vocal style, are exemplary. Can Zellweger cap an absolute big-screen comeback with her second Oscar? Maybe, but in a year where the Best Actress is extremely competitive, it would be shocking if she didn’t land a nomination.
“Marriage Story” gives Netflix another major power player
You don’t have to be in a relationship, married or been a victim of divorce to be moved by Noah Baumbach‘s latest dramedy. And let’s emphasize dramedy. Clearly inspired by his own life events, “Marriage Story” doesn’t just feature two incredible performances from Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, but hilarious turns from Laura Dern, Alan Alda, and Julie Hagerty. It’s the definition of crowd-pleasingly funny. Somehow surprisingly funny for a Baumbach movie despite his resume or perhaps because of the movie’s subject matter (this ain’t “Kramer vs. Kramer”). Put it at the top of your lists for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress nominations. It’s also likely a Best Director nominee, Original Score nominee (a nice change for Randy Newman) and potentially the Best Original Screenplay frontrunner. Is it the frontrunner at this early stage? Let’s all take a breath and get through TIFF first, shall we?
“Parasite” is on the verge
As we noted in our annual Oscar in August feature last week, “Parasite” has the potential to be a “thing” and Telluride only proved that assertion. By Monday, it was such the talk of the festival that approximately 100 patrons (the attendees who pay $4,900 to get in line first) got shut out of the last screening which took place in the second-largest venue at the fest. That momentum should continue at TIFF and NYFF, but the question is how NEON uses it. If they are aiming for a Best Picture nomination (I’ve already spoken to members who will have it in their five) they can’t count on it organically occurring. Beat that drumbeat now.
Can Adam Sandler find Oscar love with “Uncut Gems”?
Sandler is simply fantastic in the Safdie brothers latest and he absolutely deserves to be in the conversation in a very crowded Best Actor field. The question is whether enough members can get through “Gems” to make it happen. Don’t misconstrue that take, this pundit is a fan of “Gems” for a variety of reasons, but anyone associated with it will admit it’s a very intense film. It will not play with everyone (and did not in Telluride). But it will have a passionate fan base and that passion is what matters most. Plus, if Sandler works it? He might just make the…(wait for it, you know it’s coming)…cut.
Who’s lead for Ford v Ferrari’s Christian Bale and Matt Damon
James Mangold‘s period drama is a triumph that should earn a ton of Oscar nods, but even the most experienced awards consultants and journalists were left vexing over one giant question that looms over its Oscar campaign: Who’s going lead and who’s supporting? Honestly, it’s something of a major head-scratcher. My suggestion won’t make anyone happy, but I’d campaign them both in lead. Bale campaigning for supporting seems like a massive cheat of the scale of Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl” (although it certainly worked for her) and I don’t think anyone will buy Damon’s screen time as supporting. The film is a simply too much of a genuine two-hander. Campaign them both for lead. Chances are Bale will get in both anyway. Damon? He’s very good, but landing a nod with this competition seems doubtful. Either they both get in lead or Damon doesn’t land a nod at all.
Unanswered questions
Is “The Two Popes” a potential Best Picture nomination surprise or just a play for Jonathan Pryce? Can any of the fantastic performances in “Waves” have an impact with the Academy? Assuming “Portrait of a Girl in Fire” is France’s International Film submission (it’s 50/50 at this point) does it play well enough to make the final five? Can “A Hidden Life” breakthrough all of the other awards season players without Malick at least appearing at a screening or two? Is “The Aeronauts” anything more than a below the line play?
Potential answers to those questions and more as the season moves north to Toronto starting Thursday.