OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Kathy Bates, “Matlock”
Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
Britt Lower, “Severance”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
ALMOST THERE: Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale,” Keira Knightley, “Black Doves”
LOWDOWN: In theory, it’s Elisabeth Moss over Melanie Lynskey, but we just don’t buy it. If Lynskey gets in for a weak “Yellowjackets” season, Netflix may be kicking themselves for not campaigning Knightly more for “Black Doves.”
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
John Turturro, “Severance”
Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
Choi Seung-hyun, “Squid Game”
Patrick Schwarzenegger, “The White Lotus”
ALMOST THERE: Stellan Skarsgard, “Andor,” Zach Cherry, “Severance,” Patrick Ball, “The Pitt,”
LOWDOWN: It pains us that Stellan Skarsgard likely won’t make this list.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat”
Leslie Bibb, “The White Lotus”
Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
ALMOST THERE: Genevieve O’Reilly, “Andor”
LOWDOWN: It pains us that Genevieve O’Reilly likely won’t make this list.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence”
Kevin Kline, “Disclaimer”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Dopeshit”
Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
ALMOST THERE: Aaron Pierre, “Rebel Ridge,” Paul Giamatti, “Black Mirror,” Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent”
LOWDOWN: It would only be a surprise because most television movie stars rarely crack this field, but Aaron Pierre’s celebrated turn makes too much sense. But who does he knock out?
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin”
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex”
Renee Zellweger, “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy”
Kaitlyn Dever, “Apple Cider Vinegar”
Cate Blanchett, “Disclaimer”
ALMOST THERE: Ellen Pompeo, “Good American Family,” Lola Pettigrew, “Say Nothing,” Meghan Fahy, “Sirens”
LOWDOWN: Would it be wild if Cate Blanchett was snubbed here?
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence”
Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
Peter Skarsgard, “Presumed Innocent”
Rob Delaney, “Dying for Sex”
Ashley Walters, “Adolescence”
Hugh Grant, “Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy”
ALMOST THERE: Clancy Brown, “The Penguin,” Rhezy Feliz, “The Penguin,” Jay Duplass, “Dying for Sex”
LOWDOWN: If not Ashley Walters, then either of “The Penguin” stars make it instead.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence”
Jenny Slate, “Dying for Sex”
Leslie Manville, “Disclaimer”
Diedre O’Connell, “The Penguin”
Chloe Sevigny, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
Christine Tremarco, “Adolescence”
ALMOST THERE: Ruth Negga, “Presumed Innocent”
LOWDOWN: Christine Tremarco is likely too close to call, but the power of Netflix and, more importantly, “Adolescence,” should get her across the finish line.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jeffrey Wright, “The Last of Us”
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt”
Scott Glenn, “The White Lotus”
Ben Mendholson, “Andor”
Beau Bridges, “Matlock”
Mackenzie Astin, “The Pitt”
ALMOST THERE: Joe Panoliano, “The Last of Us,” Gong Yoo, “Squid Game”
LOWDOWN: Jeffrey Wright and Shawn Hatosy are the only real givens here. The other four slots could absolutely surprise.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Kaitlyn Dever, “The Last of Us”
Catherine O’Hara, “The Last of Us”
Gwendoline Christie, “Severance”
Cherry Jones, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Merritt Weaver, “The Pitt”
Hilary Swank, “Yellowjackets”
ALMOST THERE: Jane Alexander, “Severance,” Rebecca Tinley, “The Pitt,” Sydney Cole Alexander, “Severance”
LOWDOWN: Could this field have three “Severence” stars in the mix? Ponder.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Julianne Nicholson, “Hacks”
Cynthia Erivo, “Poker Face”
Kaitlin Olsen, “Hacks”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Bear”
Maya Rudolph, “Saturday Night Live”
Zoe Kravitz, “The Studio”
ALMOST THERE: Melissa McCarthy, “Only Murders in the Building,” Sarah Polley, “The Studio,” Ariana Grande, “Saturday Night Live”
LOWDOWN: To be fair, this is a super competitive field. Julianne Nicholson and Jamie Lee Curtis are a given. Maya Rudolph has won this field twice and earned seven, yes, seven nominations, barely campaigning (usually she’s campaigning for something else). If “The Studio” underperforms (are you detecting a theme yet?), a great Zoe Kravitz turn is in trouble.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Bryan Cranston, “The Studio”
Martin Scorsese, “The Studio”
Christopher McDonald, “Hacks”
Martin Short, “Saturday Night Live”
Jon Bernthal, “The Bear”
Giancarlo Esposito, “Poker Face”
ALMOST THERE: Dave Chappelle, “Saturday Night Live,” Ron Howard, “The Studio,” Will Poulter, “The Bear,” Timothee Chalamet, “Saturday Night Live”
LOWDOWN: Unlike Guest Actress, these six nominees are much more fluid. Bryan Cranston, Jon Bernthal, and maybe Martin Short (who shockingly has never been recognized here) are the only givens.
The 77th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations will be revealed on Tuesday, July 15, at 8:30 AM PT/ 11:30 AM ET. Look for full coverage on The Playlist
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Editor-at-Large Gregory Ellwood is one of Hollywood's most respected awards journalists, covering the Oscars and Emmys beat with the access and institutional knowledge that comes from decades reporting at the center of the industry. Based in West Hollywood, he has written for the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, HitFix, and Vox, among others.
