Streaming isn’t ruining the movie business
For most of this year, there has been a constant drumbeat from media reporters and business pundits that streaming companies such as Netflix and Amazon are going to upend the movie industry. That hasn’t been the case. Sure, a number of studios are having problems with franchise fatigue (not a new thing) and you can’t find an indie filmmaker or producer who won’t cry about how hard it is to get financing these days. Well, it’s a little bit of “fake news,” frankly. First, it’s been hard to secure indie financing since the ’90s indie boom. Yes, there was a good decade where financiers were funding independently-produced flicks in the $10-20 million or so range but those were never “true” indies. They were studio movies without a true studio looking for VOD, international or major distribution down the road. Listen, it’s always been hard to get indie financing. It always will be. Nothing has really changed in that respect. Second, the movie business just came off a record year of box office domestically with ticket sales at a healthy 1.3 million admissions. But wait, I know what you’re thinking, “That doesn’t take in the rise in ticket prices!” You’re right, but the dirty secret naysayers don’t want you to hear is that admissions have been pretty stable between 1995 to today, fluctuating between 1.3 million and 1.5 million (the latter a rare high period from 2002-2004 when the country was trying to escape the horror of Sept. 11 and the Middle East wars). Want to see something really depressing? Look at admissions from 1980-1995, where some years barely sold more than 1 million tickets a year. The industry has survived the advent of television, home video (arguably it’s biggest competition to date), DVD, VOD and online downloads. Streaming is not going to kill the moviegoing experience. Third, for such an unhealthy business, the cycle of new distributors continues. Radius may be gone and Broadgreen may be on its last legs, but Neon, Gunpowder and Sky as well as a pumped up Annapurna have joined a stable of mini-majors including Focus, SPC, Fox Searchlight, A24, Bleeker Street, CBS Films, Roadside Attractions, The Weinstein Company, Magnolia and IFC Films (there’s also STX, but they have much bigger aspirations). The “problem” is that a ton of moderately priced mid-range pictures (films studios would have hoped to earn between $30-80 million) have been snatched up by both Netflix and Amazon. These aren’t films the studios or the mini-majors had serious interest in funding in over a decade. In many ways, the two companies are actually filling a need in the marketplace. And of course, Amazon isn’t really a “problem” because they are distributing their films in theaters (and making money at it) before the films eventually stream on Amazon Prime. Netflix on the other hand? Well, they still got issues…
Netflix needs to figure out its film problems quick
Forget the fact that Netflix is going to have a problem with the Academy trying to gain Oscar traction on films such as “Okja,” “The Meyorwitz Chronicles” and “Mudbound.” Right now, the service has to figure out how to get the world talking about its films in general. Both “War Machine” — which starred Brad Pitt, arguably still one of the biggest stars in the world — and “Okja” came and went with little fanfare in the cultural lexicon once they were released. Unlike for its television series, social media is barely reacting to Netflix’s “films” which may (or may not) be indicative of how many people are watching them. And it’s worth noting that Adam Sandler‘s movies for Netflix have gotten little media or social play, but have been rumored to be more popular than many of the service’s buzzworthy shows. That being said, a number of major filmmakers have signed up to make original films for the service including Maya Forbes, Ritesh Barta, Duncan Jones, Francis Lawrence and Martin Scorsese. If Netflix only films continue to — for lack of a better word — “disappear” after their release, there will come a point where the amount of money the company is willing to pay won’t matter. Filmmakers make films to be seen and if they can’t experience any feedback that they are being seen, it sort of defeats the purpose. Smartly, Netflix recently hired Julie Fontaine from Lionsgate to head their Film Publicity efforts. The question is whether Fontaine and other influential execs can convince CEO Reed Hastings to release more of their films theatrically first and to avoid the pesky day and date problem alone. Anything is possible, right?
No one is talking about the Weinstein Company which means…
…They have something major in the works. And they do! Just when you thought Harvey, Bob and the family were fading away comes the news that Quentin Tarantino is working on a new movie based on the Manson Family murders. And that’s big news because Tarantino movies make money and TWC hasn’t had a knockout hit since “The Imitation Game” almost three years ago. And, as expected, TWC is looking for a studio to partner with as they did with Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds” and “Django Unchained.” Beyond that, things have been very quiet for Harvey and his crew since “Lion” landed six Oscar nominations in January (they are almost completely out of the festival acquisition business). They released the long-delayed “3 Generations” in May, but it earned a measly $68,000 theatrically. This may be a rare lull before the storm for TWC. The studio has Taylor Sheridan‘s “Wind River” in August (a potential art house win) along with three obvious dumps: the horror flick “Polaroid” (O.K., it could make some genre dollars), Justin Chadwick’s “Tulip Fever” (poor Alicia Vikander) and the animated family film “Leap!” (known as “Ballerina” when it hit theaters in the rest of the world this past winter). Where things get interesting is in the late fall with Garth Davis‘ “Mary Magdalene” (Focus is releasing overseas) and the prime Oscar bait title “The Current War” with Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Shannon and Tom Holland. So, chances are TWC will once again be in the awards season game and, beyond Tarantino, that may be the only business they are in these days. If it keeps the lights on, why complain?
