And then there were four. As we begin this second full week of November there are just four potential Best Picture contenders left to screen: “Mary, Queen of Scots,” “Vice,” “Mary Poppins Returns” and “The Mule.” And you will likely hear reaction to all four in that order. Last Thursday, however, another film found its way into the awards season spotlight after opening AFI Fest 2019, Mimi Leder’s “On the Basis of Sex.”
We’d been skeptical of “Basis” as an awards player since footage screened at CinemaCon last April for a number of reasons. The movie appeared too broad, the cinematography looked flat and overall it felt formulaic. The good news is a great ensemble and powerful story overcome almost all of those obstacles to fashion a crowd-pleasing (yes, cliche, but true) flick that will have many crying at the end (who, me?). In another year it might sneak into the “Hidden Figures,” “Philomena” or “The Post” slot for Best Picture, but it faces stiff competition this particular season from “Green Book” in that regard. What can’t be discounted is Felicity Jones‘ impressive performance as Ruth Bader Ginsburg that should absolutely keep her in the mix for a Best Actress nomination. When the film gets a little too preoccupied with debating legal theory Jones finda a way to keeps you captivated. Moreover, anyone who doesn’t think she’s pulling off a young Ginsburg might want to differ to the Supreme Court Justice’s family opinion rather than their own.
Focus Features may not have a second Best Picture nominee with “Basis” after “Blackkklansman,” but they definitely have a movie that should be a word-of-mouth hit when it arrives in theaters on Christmas. They also have “Mary, Queen of Scots” debuting at AFI Fest on Thursday.
As for the state of the rest of the Best Picture race, the news that “Roma” will be screening in theaters three weeks before arriving on the streaming service is a game-changer for Netflix on Dec. 14. In theory, this should appease the concerns of Academy members who have issues with Netflix’s traditional day and date strategy. The service still needs to find a way to inform moviegoers that their films are in theaters, however. Many people in LA and NY were unaware the Coen Brothers‘ “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” was in cinemas in New York and Los Angeles this past weekend and the fact the studio does not release box office figures only compounds the problem (if they promoted the fact it was in theaters they would also have box office figures they would be happier with). Let’s see if they fix that problem with “Roma.”
Keeping all this in mind, here is your latest Contender Countdown…
November 12, 2018
1. “A Star is Born”
Will it fade like “La La Land” or be a steady player through ups and downs like “The King’s Speech” and “Birdman”? Ponder, pt. 1.
2. “Green Book”
Until there is, no pun intended, “universal” reaction upon its release it’s gonna be hard to gauge its chances of winning. In theory, however, it’s right there.
3. “Roma”
Those that love it, love it.
4. “The Favourite”
Women and um, gay men, adore it. Can you win Best Picture without getting a significant portion of the white male vote? Wait, sorry there, got my wires crossed with midterm election coverage…
5. “BlacKkKlansman”
Slowly but surely becoming the steady candidate in the mix. Focus needs a very strong “reminder” campaign, however. Hint, hint.
6. “Black Panther”
Should be in, but Disney needs to start the “why this isn’t your typical superhero movie” campaign earlier rather than later. And with big billboards all over LA, too (if they can find any that Netflix doesn’t own already). Why? Not as many Academy members have seen the movie as you’d think.
7. “Vice”
The buzz is it’s a player. We’ll know more very, very soon.
8. “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Annapurna’s other contender moved its limited release date from November to Dec. 14. We’re assuming that’s to get a boost from critics groups honors and other awards season nominations. That being said, we’re slightly concerned it’s too late for a movie that needs to ferment with audiences such as this one (although it did work for “Phantom Thread”).
9. “First Man”
Box office is certainly disappointing. Universal is still pushing but heeds critic love at the end of the year.
10. “Widows”
The bigger hit it turns out to be, the better chance it has to crack a likely nine-nominee field.
11. “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Hard to run into anyone who isn’t seduced by its charms, but will AMPAS members see it as anything more than a showcase for Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant‘s performances? Ponder, pt. 2.
12. “The Front Runner”
Longshot at this point, but if others fade it could sneak in.
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film