'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story's' Oscar Chances Feel Like Deja Vu

Before we get to the potential awards chances for “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” we have to mention the giant Death Star in the room: the late campaign itself.

For the second year in a row secrecy over spoilers in a “Star Wars” film means that guild and Academy members won’t screen the film until the day before opening (technically screening for the public that night anyway). It means major critics groups didn’t see it before they voted for their year end awards and it also means many of those same critics have published their top ten lists before they were able to see it. Some, like myself are lucky enough to have not officially published yet. That’s good because ‘Rogue One’ is a much better movie than ‘The Force Awakens’ even if it seems some critics are being much harsher toward it than they should be.* This is all somewhat disheartening since ‘Rogue One’ is timely (the screenwriters were on point about that fact) and ends with an emotional wallop.

*Quick note on some of those criticisms. Yes, it’s a great beginning, a clunky middle, and a moving and knockout ending. That seems awfully similar to the ones leveled at “La La Land,” but somehow that movie gets a pass. Intriguing, no?

Unlike last year, however, where there was the hint love for ‘The Force Awakens’ could result in a Best Picture nomination (hope that died when it missed out on a PGA Awards nod), no one in the media or industry was taking ‘Rogue One’ that seriously in this regard. That’s likely because ‘The Force Awakens’ fizzled and the reports Tony Gilroy oversaw/collaborated on the editing of the reshoots, a familiar event which never sits well with an industry that rightfully puts art in the hands of a (usually) single auteur (at least when it comes to Oscar).

READ MORE: ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’ Is A Flawed, But Still Thrilling, Darker Chapter In The ‘Star Wars’ Universe [Review]

But, as we noted, Disney didn’t necessarily learn any lessons from last year where the campaign came so late numerous opportunities were lost. Granted, on the surface it looked good. ‘The Force Awakens’ earned five key nominations including Original Score (John Williams), Sound Mixing, Wound Editing and Visual Effects. Those four weren’t huge surprises though. Williams gets nominated for almost everything, the sound guilds have recognized the franchise three times before. The surprise was Film Editing nod that deprived “Room,” “The Martian” and “Bridge of Spies” of a key nomination. Disney was effectively scrambling after it opened, however, for a campaign they did not expect at any level. Even with the secrecy over ‘Rogue One’ that experience should have made this year different, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. To my knowledge there hasn’t even been below the line* pitches to major awards publications that serve to inform the industry of such performances/achievements during the season.

*Below the line includes any category that doesn’t involved actors, writers, directors or producers.

This is head scratching because while most of the Disney staff didn’t see ‘Rogue One’ until the beginning of December (less than two weeks ago) the movie is Oscar worthy in many categories. Director of Photography Greig Fraser did a beautiful job shooting potential Best Picture nominee “Lion,” but his overall work here is much more impressive. Production Designers Doug Chiang and Neil LaMont collaborated with Edwards on a vision for the “Star Wars” galaxy that is arguably the most iconic since “Empire Strikes Back.” David Crossman and Glyn Dillon tell unique stories in their costume designs that feel incredible fresh and new for a prequel to a film shot 40 years ago. And while Michael Giacchino has completed three other scores this calendar year (“Zootopia,” “Star Trek Beyond” and “Doctor Strange”) his work on ‘Rogue One’ is perhaps his most subtle and moving work since his Oscar-winning score for “Up” (and following up Williams, no less).  Moreover, in a year of fantastic ensembles are you telling me SAG nom com wouldn’t really consider this troupe if given the chance (or even a slight push)?

There’s no reason some of the standouts still can’t happen (beyond a SAG ensemble nod), but they probably won’t at this late campaign date. Perhaps it’s all about keeping secrets for audiences. Maybe the studio didn’t want to draw more early attention over the reshoots. Whatever the case it’s not great for the artists involved, but I guess that’s the deal you make to get “Star Wars” on your resume.