![A ‘Battle’ Is Brewing In The Best Picture Race With New Oscar Contenders In Sight [Contender Countdown]](https://cdn.theplaylist.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/15125751/A-%E2%80%98Battle-Is-Brewing-In-The-Best-Picture-Race-With-New-Oscar-Contenders-In-Sight-Contender-Countdown.jpg "A ‘Battle’ Is Brewing In The Best Picture Race With New Oscar Contenders In Sight [Contender Countdown]")
It’s been a month since our first Contender Countdown rankings, and with so many new players unveiled, it feels like a good time to revisit the state of the Best Picture race.
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For the longest time, an October release date was statistically the best month to win Oscar’s top trophy. This year’s champ, “Anora,” dropped almost a year ago, while “Parasite,” “Moonlight,” “Birdman,” and “Argo” solidified their runs in the same time frame. With “Green Book,” “Spotlight,” and “12 Years A Slave” all debuting in the first week of November, well, it’s historically an ideal time of year.
That may be good news for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” a movie that has few, if any, naysayers in the industry (and if they exist, they are being super quiet about it). That Warner Bros. release dropped at the tail end of September and, frankly, may make history as a super-rare winner from that period. In fact, the last September winner over four decades ago when “Amadeus” opened on Sept. 19, 1984. And before any film bros panic over that stat, there have been two “streaming” winners, an April winner and a blockbuster summer champion over the past five years. Times (may) have changed. So, if “One Battle” takes the crown, it will make awards season history in its own right.
We would also remind anyone ready to end the season and crown “One Battle” that there is a long way to go. Especially with some stellar heartbreaking, critically acclaimed tearjerkers such as “Hamnet” (which took yet another audience award this past weekend) and “Sentimental Value” waiting in the wings. And there’s always the possibility that industry favorite “Sinners” coalesces as the consensus number one or number two ranking vote. The good news is that “One Battle’s” overseas box office performance will help it with international voters, who increasingly appear to sway the race with their more cinephile taste in the fight for number two votes. And if “Wicked For Good” pulls off anything close to “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” experience? Watch out.
The other prevailing question of the season is which movie will Netflix get into the top 10? In theory, Richard Linklater’s delightful “Nouvelle Vague” is the streamer’s best bet, but France not selecting it as their International Film submission may hinder enough voters from watching. Actors could save Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” but their votes may be spread too thin this season. Clint Bentley’s fantastic Sundance player “Train Dreams” deserves massive consideration, but already feels like it’s being swallowed up in a super-busy season. Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” is fun, but we believe only so many popcorn flicks can make the cut with the current membership.
That leaves Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite,” which began its four-walled theatrical run this past weekend. The movie’s Rotten Tomatoes score is sort of on track with expectations, 80%, but my critical peers have given it a somewhat shocking 80 grade after 39 reviews on Metacritic. Clearly, as you can tell by this writer’s personal opinion, the movie is polarizing (I guess there’s room for everyone to forgive that third act). But if member reaction is similar, it may rise to the top of Netflix’s best shot for an eighth straight year of at least one Best Picture nomination.
Notably, Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme” screened at the NYFF last Monday and in a special LA industry and press screening on Wednesday. We had floor tickets for Dua Lipa that we bought when Kamala Harris was still up in the polls in September 2024, and life took priority. Hopefully, A24 will screen sooner rather than later, but nothing…yet (cough).
Keeping all that in mind…
Contender Countdown
Oct. 15, 2025
1 “One Battle After Another”
It’s your frontrunner, but not an inevitable winner. Not yet. A long way to go.
2 “Hamnet”
It has the most heart and is “Battle’s” biggest threat.
3 “Sinners”
Needs to lock up acting nominations to have a genuine shot to win.
4 “Sentimental Value”
A potential best picture spoiler.
5 “Wicked For Good”*
We’re somewhat confident Jon M. Chu is gonna nail the landing with this one.
6 “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Unless it’s terrible, it’s looking safer and safer every passing week.
7 “Marty Supreme”*
Again, we haven’t seen, but the reaction from trusted peers makes it seem like a given. We’ll go with that, for now.
8 “Rental Family”
Still one of the biggest crowd pleasers out there. That may just be enough.
9 “It Was Just An Accident”
If any movie needs a trifecta of NBR, NYFCC, and LAFCA Best Film of the Year wins to lock in a Best Picture nomination, it’s this Palme d’Or winner.
10 “A House of Dynamite”
Hey, we’re always down for Kathryn Bigelow to have a moment.
11 “Nouvelle Vague”
We still wanna believe.
12 “Train Dreams”
The more people Netflix can get to see it, the better its shot is, but time is ticking.
13 “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
It may be a tale of the box office. If it’s a hit, it could easily crack the 10. If not, it’s an actor play.
14 “The Secret Agent”
Those who love it, love it. Not sure how NEON (or any studio for that matter) can earn three nominees in 2026, but they are certainly gonna try.
15 “Is This Thing Still On?”
A lurker that, if it screens like crazy, could surprise. Never bet against Bradly Cooper if he’s motivated to campaign.
16 “Bugonia”
Emma Stone is safe for a Best Actress nomination, but will it play to AMPAS? And will the box office matter?
17 “Jay Kelly”
If the Actors’ branch embraces it, all bets are off.
18 “No Other Choice”
Another stellar NEON player that may just have to make do with landing an International Film nomination. It’s still making our own top 10 list, however.
19 “F1”
A movie that has a massive fanbase (especially overseas). Can the industry on both sides of the Atlantic be convinced it’s a Best Picture-worthy nominee?
20 “Frankenstein”
We’ll never doubt Guillermo Del Toro’s campaign prowess, but his AMPAS magic may not spark this time around. Then again…
Still out there:
“The Lost Bus”
The buzz may have died down despite better-than-expected reviews, but Jamie Lee Curtis is a producer. We repeat: Jamie Lee Curtis is a producer.
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
A late dropping – in terms of release – acquisition for Searchlight. Is it just an Amanda Seyfried, Adapted Screenplay, and crafts player? Or more?
“Weapons”
Lurking in the background like Aunt Gladys playing with her potions.
“Blue Moon”
Never bet against Michael Barker and Tom Bernard, pt. 1
“Nuremberg”
Never bet against Michael Barker and Tom Bernard, pt. 2 (well, maybe bet against this one)
*Unscreened at publication.
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