Thanksgiving is upon us and that means four potential Oscar contenders are hitting theaters. And we specifically used the word “potential” because, while all four of them were seen weeks ago, an unexpected critical lift from opening day reviews or significant box office could always reframe the conversation.
That doesn’t appear to be the case.
The most prominent opener is Garth Davis’ “Lion” which many believe will be a Best Picture nominee and earn nods for Nicole Kidman (Best Supporting Actress) and potentially Dev Patel (Best Supporting Actor). At the moment, The Weinstein Company release has a solid 63 on Metacritic and an OK 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. If you judge by Metacritic scores for Best Picture nominees, a low 60s grade is borderline. The lowest graded movies to earn nominations this century are “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (46), “The Blind Side” (53) and “The Reader” (58). If we look closer, over the past five years “Extremely Loud” is still the lowest graded, while “The Help” (62) and “Les Miserables” (63) followed suit. Every other nominee has been higher than 70, and often in the 80s and 90s. The good news for “Lion” is that a lot of national and regional critics have not reviewed it yet and that could bump up its standing. What also helps “Lion” is that it has a very moving ending that led to it finishing right behind “La La Land” for the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. It’s a tearjerker and emotions mean something when it comes to Academy voters.
Currently earning a surprising 65 on Metacritic and a 72% on Rotten Tomatoes is John Madden’s “Miss Sloane.” The reviews are mostly a compliment to star Jessica Chastain who is likely a Golden Globe nominee for Best Actress in a Drama. Working her way into the SAG or Oscar mix seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
Warren Beatty has been working the circuit for his long waited “Rules Don’t Apply” for months. Many other pundits believe he’s either a potential Best Actor nominee or that the film could earn a Best Picture nod from older Academy members who really appear to like it. Right now it has a 59 on Metacritic and a “rotten” 59% on RT. Stephen Holden of the New York Times gave it a generous rave, but conversely, Kenneth Turran of the Los Angeles Times did not. The film is also expected to bomb at the box office this weekend, earning just $4-5 million over the five-day in 2,382 theaters. Beatty has faced tough odds in the past with Oscar players that didn’t connect with audiences, but they always earned some degree of critical acclaim. Yes, I’m going to go there…is this the time when…rules don’t apply?
Also opening wide this weekend is Robert Zemeckis’ “Allied.” It currently has a 60 grade on Metacritic and a 64% “fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes. The Paramount Pictures release should earn between $18-20 million over the five-day. That would be a solid start based on its $85 million production budget. A Best Picture nomination seems unlikely, but “Allied” should earn a number of key below-the-line nominations. Moreover, Marion Cotillard is an HFPA favorite and after her surprise nod for “Two Days, One Night” should never be counted out for Oscar.
Walt Disney Animated Studios‘ “Moana” is also in theaters and should be another blockbuster for the Mouse House. It has an 81 on Metacritic and a stellar 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s totally getting nominated for Best Animated Feature Film and likely Best Original Song and Best Original Score. Basically, “Moana” was who we thought she was in the best possible way.
READ MORE: Disney’s ‘Moana’ Is An Inspired, Spellbinding Tribute To The Human Spirit [Review]
Beyond those newcomers, the big questions for the holiday weekend are: Will “Moonlight” get a Spirits bump? How will “Loving” perform expanding from 137 to 421 theaters? And, most importantly, what screeners and screenings are SAG and Academy members flocking to over the holiday weekend?
Keeping all that in mind, here’s the latest Contender Countdown rankings.
Note: Films are now being listed by their chances to win Best Picture.
November 23, 2016
1. “La La Land”
Wanna bet that “Dancing With The Stars” number made the new Oscar telecast producers envious? And, yeah, the dancers in the actual “Someone In the Crowd” number in the movie are more diverse than this dance troupe is.
2. “Manchester by the Sea”
Fantastic limited opening with stellar reviews. Only hiccup this week was Lonergan not earning a Directing not at the Spirits. Should win either LAFCA or NYFCC.
3. “Moonlight”
Tied “American Honey” for the most Spirit Nods with six and would have earned more if the cast hadn’t been relegated to the Robert Altman Award ensemble honor (“Spotlight” won it last year). A24’s critically acclaimed “masterpiece” should dominate the end of year top 10 lists. Question is can it lock that SAG Ensemble nod up?
4. “Hell or High Water”
You talk to Academy members and they’ll tell you they have it in their top five. Ignore the Golden Globes, it’s all about SAG with this one.
5. “Jackie”
The secret winner of the Spirit nominations is looking more like a Best Picture nominee lock every day.
6. “Lion”
Harvey’s one shot.
7. “Sully”
As more Best Actor contenders fall by the wayside don’t be surprised if Tom Hanks finds his way in the top five.
8. “Fences”
Do two incredible performances make a Best Picture nominee? This is going to be one to watch.
9. “Silence”
Gorgeous new trailer makes Scorsese’s latest a must-see. Could he be the surprise Best Director winner over Barry Jenkins and Damien Chazelle?
10. “Hidden Figures”
When you’re at 10 with the current voting system chances are you’re not going to get in. And you could argue “Arrival” could slot here too, but there is a lot of momentum for “Figures” which could be a major spoiler in the SAG ensemble race.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing – Coming Soon
Cinematography – Coming Soon
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score – Coming Soon
Original Song – Coming Soon
Costumes – Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon