If you wonder why so many who cover the Oscar game are hesitant to call out a true frontrunner at this stage in the game it’s because there honestly doesn’t seem to be one yet. We’ve got the Golden Globe nominations in a few hours, but at this point the HFPA are much more likely to influence an Academy member by who they select as a winner in January before nomination voting is completed. The SAG Award nominations are on Wednesday and that will be a much closer (but not perfect) indicator of what the industry thinks, but their SAG Ensemble honor hasn’t predicted five Best Picture nominees twice this decade. What we do know, however, is how the regional critics groups feel. These organizations started to reveal their year-end awards chorus over the past two weeks and two films have risen from the pack.
“Call Me By Your Name” takes Best Picture Gotham Awards as “Get Out” takes three honors
Oh, and they aren’t the films chosen for Best Picture by the National Board of Review (NBR), the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) or the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) either.
A24’s “The Florida Project” had something of an insurgent few days at it took the top honor from the San Francisco Film Critics, Detroit Film Critics Society, Toronto Film Critics Association and well as New York Online Film Critics (in a tie with “Mudbound”). Universal Pictures’ “Get Out” has also been prominent winning Best Picture (or Feature or Film) from the Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Atlanta Film Critics Society and the Sight & Sound poll. The only other films to win a “Best Picture” honor so far are “Phantom Thread” (Boston Society of Film Critics), “Call Me By Your Name” (LAFCA), “Lady Bird” (NYFCC) and “The Post” (NBR).
Granted, these wins mean nothing in terms of actual Academy sentiment. What they allow is free publicity and “Best Picture Winner” kudos on film’s for your consideration advertising.
It’s also worth taking a moment and looking at the other major races and where they stand with critics.
Best Director is all over the place with “Shape of Water’s” Guillermo del Toro (SF, LAFCA*), “Dunkirk’s” Christopher Nolan (DC, ATL) and “Lady Bird’s” Greta Gerwig (Tor, NBR) each winning twice. “Phantom Thread’s” Paul Thomas Anderson (Boston), “Mudbound’s” Dee Rees (NYFCO), “Get Out’s” Jordan Peele (Phi), “Call Me By Your Name’s” Luca Guadagnino (LAFCA*) and “Florida Project’s” Sean Baker (NYFCC) all have one win so far.
Surprisingly, “Call Me’s” Timothée Chalamet leads the Best Actor field at the moment with three wins(ATL, LAFCA, NYFCC). “Darkest Hour’s” expected frontrunner Gary Oldman (DC, NYFCO) and “Phantom Thread’s” Daniel Day-Lewis (Phi, Tor) each have two. “The Post’s” Tom Hanks (NBR) and “War of the Planet of the Apes'” Andy Serkis (SF) have one each.
“Shape of Water’s” Sally Hawkins has taken the pole in the Best Actress race with three honors (Boston, Phi, LAFCA). “I, Tonya’s” Margot Robbie (SF, NYFCO), “Three Billboards'” Frances McDormand (DC, Tor) have two. “Lady Bird’s” Saoirse Ronan (NYFCC) and “The Post’s” Meryl Streep (NBR) have also made the cut so far.
“Lady Bird’s” Laurie Metcalf is dominating the Best Supporting Actress category with five wins so far (SF, DC, Boston, ATL, Tor, LAFCA). Another presumed nominee, “I, Tonya’s” Allison Janney (NYFCO, Phi), has two. “Girls Trip’s” Tiffany Haddish (NYFCC) in on the board with one so far.
“The Florida Project’s” Willem Dafoe is blowing away the Best Supporting Actress honors with a whooping eight wins (SF, Boston, NYFCO, ATL, Tor, LAFCA, NYFCC, NBR). “Three Billboard’s” Sam Rockwell (DC) and Woody Harrelson (Phi) have one each.
Best Screenplay is slightly harder to gauge as some groups give both Adapted and Original awards, but Jordan Peele is out front with as “Get Out” has seven wins (SF, NYFCO, DC*, ATL, Phi, Tor, LAFCA). Paul Thomas Anderson’s”Phantom Thread” has two honors (NYFCC, NBR*) while “Mudbound’s” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees (DC*) and “Lady Bird’s” Gerwig (Boston) have one respectively.
As for other critics groups, the Chicago Film Critics will announce Tuesday night will Dallas-For Worth Critics Association reveal their winners on Dec. 13.