After what turned out to be a tumultuous Golden Globes, a slew of guild nominations were revealed over the past 36 hours and even with less than a week to go until final Oscar ballots are submitted thinks look “slightly” clearer. And as one prominent awards consultant is prone to say about Oscar, “It’s a marathon, not a sprint.”
At the front of the pack is still Bradley Cooper’s “A Star is Born.” I know it must not seem that way after the Globes, but as we must, here’s another reminder that what the 88 members or so of the HFPA decide to anoint is not what 8,000 plus members of the Academy are prone to repeat. There is just one movie that has been recognized by every guild so far with a nomination in at least one category and that’s the Warner Bros. smash hit. In a rare feat, Cooper also found himself with two DGA Awards for both Feature Film Direction and First Time Direction. The movie even has key Grammy Award nods almost unheard of for a feature film single as “Shallow” landed Record of the Year and Song of the Year nominations (it’s worth noting “Black Panther” earned the first Album of the Year nod for a movie since 2000 and “All the Stars” also landed the same “Shallow” nods). Granted, “ASiB” may not win all these guild prizes, but it shows across the industry support for the film and no other contender can claim that. So, barring some unexpected twist on Oscar nominations on Jan. 22 it’s still your frontrunner.
Now, “A Star is Born’s” consistency doesn’t mean the other two major contenders, “Roma” and “Green Book,” don’t have a shot. Alfonso Cuaron’s passion project has very strong support across multiple guilds and, likely, branches. If Yalitza Aparicio can sneak into the Best Actress field than the Netflix release has to be taken much more seriously. Everyone is aware that international voters could turn the tide and help “Roma” pull out a win, but that acting nod may be key.
“Green Book” is another story. It should land multiple acting nods for Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen and an Original Screenplay nod seems a given. Editing is also in the cards , but not a lock. The big play for the Universal Pictures and Participant release is whether Peter Farrely can duplicate his DGA nomination with the Directors branch. Either Farrelly or “Vice’s” Adam McKay are likely out of the mix for Oscar’s Directing nods. Who misses out could be the difference in who’s a legit contender to win Best Picture and who isn’t.
Here’s your latest Contender Countdown.
Jan. 8, 2019
1. “A Star is Born”
HFPA have been wrong before and are likely wrong again. Maybe.
2. “Green Book”
What controversy? Academy and industry loves it. Globe win is a big boost for those wavering on voting it their no. 1.
3. “Roma”
Likely the only way at this point to keep Telluride’s Best Picture-winning streak alive.
4. “BlacKkKlansman”
Spike Lee’s masterclass really needs to leave the Dolby Theater with at least one win, that’s all.
5. “The Favourite”
Searchlight has to be smarting over no DGA for Yorgos Lanthimos, but the Directors branch may correct that mistake. If it can land an editing nod there’s still a chance at an upset.
6. “Vice”
If you speak to those on the ground there was some recent doubt whether Adam McKay’s latest is a lock for a nod, but the guild story runs counter to that. PGA, DGA, WGA and SAG recognition. It’s in.
7. “Black Panther”
Ooh, this is getting close. Should be a given, but…
8. “Bohemian Rhapsody”
When they love it there isn’t much you can do. Looks like they love it enough to forget all the baggage.
9. “If Beale Street Could Talk”
You in danger girl. That change to a mid-December release date and Telluride skip may come back to haunt you.
10. “A Quiet Place”
Might turn into a could have, should have for Paramount. A bigger campaign could have made it a solid nominee, but it also could have all been for naught. Tough line to dance, they’ve done their best to stradle it.
Nope
“Eighth Grade,” “Leave No Trace,” “First Reformed,” “The Rider”
Critics and public relations efforts could only take them so far. All needed significantly bigger ad campaigns to make a dent.
“Mary Poppins Returns”
Campaign felt a little too late, reviews didn’t help and neither did a very good but not smashing box office tally.