It’s now 5 PM in Los Angeles on the final day of Oscar nomination voting and as fellow awards season watcher David Poland has said for years, “pencils down” everybody.
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The 2017 Oscar season began early with “Birth of a Nation” being crowed an inevitable Best Picture winner a year ago at the 2016 Sundance Film Festival while “Manchester by the Sea” was seen as a Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams and screenplay opportunity at best (how times have changed). Cannes brought “Loving,” “Toni Erdmann,” “The Salesman,” “Elle” and expected Best Picture nominee “Hell or High Water” which in hindsight should have been in competition instead of an under the radar premiere. August brought a Nate Parker controversy which will find itself not only in the Oscar, but Hollywood history books and we hadn’t even hit the historical kick off to the season, the triple festival threat of Telluride, Toronto and Venice. And that’s where the “La La Land” and “Moonlight” marathons began. There is still one last leg of the race to go, but it’s been a strange and bumpy year to say the least.
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With phase one over we only know what we think we know and that’s thanks to the numerous guild and BAFTA nominations.
We know they like “La La Land” like crazy. And they universally like “Moonlight,” “Arrival,” “Lion” and “Manchester by the Sea.”
We know they like “Hell or High Water,” “Fences,” “Hidden Figures” and “Hacksaw Ridge.”
We know they sort of like “Jackie.” They probably like “20th Century Women,” but not more than other movies.
We know they aren’t in love with “Loving,” “Rules Don’t Apply,” “Live by Night,” “Silence” and “Patterson.”
We know that some of them think “Deadpool” was fun to vote for in guild awards.
We know the Brits love “Nocturnal Animals,” but it’s unclear whether that emotion is shared on this side of the pond.
We have no idea if they actually watched “Elle.”
And we think they may have forgotten about “Sully.”
Taking all this into account you can view my updated and latest predictions for each category (outside of the shorts) in the links below.
And as for Best Picture… your latest Contender Countdown.
Jan. 13, 2017
1. “La La Land”
There is no upset. Really. It’s winning. Seriously. Don’t even try and convince yourself.
2. “Moonlight”
Bumps up to no. 2 because of the PR value of the Golden Globes win for Best Picture-Drama and the fact it should earn more nominations than “Manchester.”
3. “Manchester by the Sea”
Kenneth Lonergan is probably a safe choice to win Original Screenplay baring some sort of “La La Land” landslide. Right now the campaign will be to make sure Casey Affleck fends off Denzel Washington for Best Actor.
4. “Arrival”
Paramount‘s underdog player will earn a slew of nominations, but will it win anything?
5. “Lion”
The nomination will be the win for TWC which made this happen while other pundits and consultants dismissed their chances way back in Toronto.
6. “Hell or High Water”
Is this where I mention I was the lone pundit who insisted it was getting nominated back in August and never wavered?
7. “Fences”
Viola Davis is the lock for Best Supporting Actress, but the focus is Denzel.
8. “Hidden Figures”
SAG was expected, but its shown somewhat surprising industry support in PGA, WGA and with a BAFTA Original Screenplay nomination. It may just steal a nod.
9. “Hacksaw Ridge”
If there are nine nominees its in. If there are just eight (as with the past two years) it’s between “Hacksaw” and “Hidden.”
10. “Jackie”
Upset at this point.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film
Documentary Feature
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing