If you’re an Oscar watcher and starting to come out in hives at the lack of awards speculation between now and the festival season kicking off at the end of August, you’re in luck, because this week sees the announcement of the 2016 Emmy Award nominations. With TV increasingly threatening to take the pop culture limelight from the movies (if it hasn’t already), the small-screen landscape has changed a fair amount over the years, but the Emmys still don’t quite seem to have the same glitz level as the Oscars.
In part, it’s because it’s a little more repetitive — voters tend to pick the same faces over and over again as long as their shows are on the air, and it’s traditionally quite hard to break into “the club,” as it were. But with more and more great TV airing every month, things are certainly changing, with the network fare that once dominated mostly ignored in favor of cable or streaming shows, leading to more surprises each year.
READ MORE: The 25 Best TV Shows Of 2016 So Far
The 2016 nominations will be announced early on Thursday morning, and after having looked at some of the most deserving possibilities last week (read that piece here), we’re putting our cards on the table and predicting the nominees in the major (fiction-related) categories. Take a look at our picks below, and let us know who you’re going for in the comments. And check back on Thursday morning to see who actually makes the cut.
TV Movie/Limited Series
Best Supporting Actor In A Limited Series Or Television Movie
Sterling K. Brown – “The People Vs. O.J. Simpson”
Ted Danson – “Fargo”
Hugh Laurie – “The Night Manager”
Anthony Mackie – “All The Way”
Wendell Pierce – “Confirmation”
Forest Whitaker – “Roots”
A competitive category where not everyone can win out, even with big names around. For instance, while John Travolta’s “People Vs. O.J. Simpson” turn would ordinarily be seen as a shoe-in, things are crowded enough that I think he’ll make for lesser-known co-star Sterling K. Brown. Him and Hugh Laurie feel 100% confirmed, but Mackie and Pierce should get recognized for their HBO movies, and Forest Whitaker feels very viable for “Roots.” For the final slot, I reckon Ted Danson edges out his “Fargo” co-star Jesse Plemons, but don’t be shocked to see “All The Way”’s Frank Langella, “Sherlock” actor Martin Freeman or an “American Crime Story” actor instead of either.
Best Supporting Actress In A Limited Series Or Television Movie
Olivia Colman – “The Night Manager”
Emayatzy Corinealdi – “Roots”
Melissa Leo – “All The Way”
Regina King – “American Crime”
Anika Noni Rose – “Roots”
Jean Smart – “Fargo”
With a lot of competition, including a number of shows throwing up multiple possibilities, I think that the usual strong showing of “American Horror Story” might come to an end this year (last year threw up three nominees from the show). Instead, I think there’ll be two “Roots” performers, Jean Smart in “Fargo,” Olivia Colman in “The Night Manager” and Melissa Leo in “All The Way.” For a potential winner, though, look to Regina King for “American Crime,” who’d be a rare person in this category to win two in a row. All that said, any of the “American Horror Story” triumvirate of Paulson, Bates or Bassett might pop up.
Best Actor In A Limited Series Or Television Movie
Bryan Cranston – “All The Way”
Benedict Cumberbatch – “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
Idris Elba – “Luther”
Tom Hiddleston – “The Night Manager”
Oscar Isaac – “Show Me A Hero”
Courtney B. Vance – “The People Vs. O.J. Simpson”
Overstuffed (like every category this year), it once again means that performances that have been rewarded in the last (like Timothy Hutton in “American Crime”) or that would normally be Emmy bait (like Anthony Hopkins and Ian McKellen in “The Dresser”) are gonna be left out in the cold. Even regular nominees like Benedict Cumberbatch and Idris Elba are on the bubble, though I think both make it. Bryan Cranston is guaranteed, as is Courtney B. Vance, and they’ll battle for the win, while we think Tom Hiddleston and Oscar Isaac complete the line-up, though the latter particularly is shaky given the show was on a full year ago. If they fall out, look for Cuba Gooding Jr as O.J, or dark horses James Franco for “11.22.63,” Patrick Wilson for “Fargo” or Malachi Kirby for “Roots” to step up.
Best Actress In A Limited Series Or Television Movie
Kirsten Dunst – “Fargo”
Lady Gaga – “American Horror Story: Hotel”
Felicity Huffman – “American Crime”
Audra McDonald – “Lady Day At Emerson’s Bar & Grill”
Sarah Paulson – “The People Vs. O.J. Simpson”
Kerry Washington – “Confirmation”
Whereas things are more nebulous in the other limited series/movie categories, things seem to be locked down much more for the leading actresses. There’s the potential for a surprise here and there — Blythe Danner in the “Madoff” series no one saw, or even our fave Riley Keough in “The Girlfriend Experience.” But otherwise, expect a returning Felicity Huffman, Lady Gaga taking Jessica Lange’s usual slot, awards magnet Audra McDonald, a deserving Kirsten Dunst, likely winner Sarah Paulson and her possible challenger Kerry Washington.
Best Television Movie
“All The Way”
“Confirmation”
“The Dresser”
“Lady Day At Emerson’s Bar & Grill”
“Luther”
“Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
The good news is that, in a category that often lets some shockers in (i.e. last year’s “Killing Jesus” or “Grace Of Monaco”), this should be a more respectable line-up this time around. Two familiar competitors return with the latest “Luther” and “Sherlock” installments, while the big HBO movies “All The Way” and “Confirmation” are guaranteed to be in, too (one or the other will win). Their stablemate “Lady Day At Emerson’s Bar & Grill” should join them, and Starz’s “The Dresser” certainly will. Chances for a surprise are slim: while Netflix are an increasing force, no one seemed to like “A Very Murray Christmas” or “Special Correspondents” very much, and “Wallander” likely doesn’t have as many fans as the other European detectives. Our dream pick would be the great “7 Days In Hell,” but it’s obviously very unlikely.
Best Limited Series
“American Horror Story: Hotel”
“Fargo”
“The Night Manager”
“The People Vs. O.J. Simpson”
“Roots”
“Show Me A Hero”
‘Limited’ series seems like an increasingly unlikely bit of phrasing, given that a number of nominees here are returning to one degree or another. Of the true definitions of the word, “Roots” and “Show Me A Hero” will probably represent, though the latter could fall off. “Fargo,” “The People Vs. O.J. Simpson” and “American Horror Story” should all be back, though the latter is shaky for the first time now its switched its lead up, and the rival Ryan Murphy show gets more plaudits. “The Night Manager” isn’t completely guaranteed, but people seem to like it more than its rivals like last year’s nominee “American Crime,” “11.22.63” or “War & Peace.”